Month: October 2018
A bang, not a whimper
The FBI got both smart and lucky in tracking down the originator of 14 pipe bombs sent to Democrats earlier this week. None of the bombs exploded, which left lots of evidence intact. Fingerprints and DNA led the authorities to a confirmed, even maniacal Trump, supporter, who helpfully plastered his extremist political views all over his live-in van.
But this will not be the end of the long downward spiral into which President Trump has thrust American society. The President last night suggested to evangelical supporters that the leftist Antifa movement would originate violence if he were to lose the Congress:
What better from the point of view of right-wing extremists than to preempt them? Claiming to be a victim, or a potential one, is a well-known way of justifying and inciting violence against adversaries. Already this morning there was a deadly attack on a synagogue in Pittsburgh.
Of course it is also possible that leftists will be stirred to violence. That would be a disaster for Democratic prospects at the polls November 6. But some on the left don’t have any confidence in elections and want to undermine, not strengthen, democracy. They could do it no faster than to respond to right-wing provocations with their own violence.
It is also possible the Republicans might be tempted to fake a left-wing attack. Many right-wing commenters were speculating that the 14 pipe bombs sent to Democrats were a false flag operation. Why wouldn’t some on the right wonder whether that would be a good idea? If done close enough to the election, the FBI might not even be able to get the truth out in time.
This escalation of violence can only end in disaster. Trump won’t hesitate to continue his incitement, naming individuals, calling the news media enemies of the people, and suggesting that his opponents are planning violent attacks. No respectable leader on the left has or will respond in kind, but there are enough fools out there to continue the downward spiral. What the disaster will be I cannot predict, but it will come, because there is nothing to dampen the escalation. This will end with a bang, not a whimper.
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Murder and politics
Everyone now agrees that Jamal Khashoggi was murdered after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul early this month. It was a planned operation involving more than a dozen people that concluded with the disposal of his body, which has not yet been found.
The main remaining question is who ordered the murder. It is hard to imagine that such an operation could be conducted without authorization from the Crown Prince. It is almost as hard to imagine that he would risk authorizing it. Turkey, the US, and Saudi Arabia appear to be converging on the former explanation: this was, they seem to be saying, a rogue operation. That would let the Crown Prince off the hook for murder, but still raise serious questions about his control over the security forces.
That said, Mohammed bin Salman is amazingly popular among youth in Saudi Arabia and in the Arab world more generally. You can attribute part of this popularity to autocracy: who in Saudi Arabia wants to risk giving the wrong answer to an interviewer after what happened to Jamal? But it also reflects the thirst of Saudis and young Arabs elsewhere for strong leadership and change. The Crown Prince is really unique in the Arab world: a young leader with power committed to pursuing economic and social (definitely not political) reform.
Political murder is also an issue today in the US. Twelve pipe bombs were sent this week to Democrats who have born the brunt of President Trump’s attacks. Whether they were designed to detonate is not the issue. They clearly were designed to intimidate. After an initial scripted reaction, President Trump has reverted to blaming the news media for the pipe bombs, thus trying to divert criticism from his own advocacy of violence against adversaries. He says he likes politicians who can body slam their opponents.
Some Americans are also looking for strong leadership and change. President Trump’s approval ratings are nowhere near Mohammed bin Salman’s, but they are sticking around 40% or a bit higher. Trump’s predominantly white and male base likes his opposition to immigration, his tariffs, his Supreme Court nominees, his misogyny, his white nationalism, his lies about providing health insurance to people with pre-existing conditions, and his tax cuts for the wealthy, all of which they believe will make America great again.
I would like to think that those who tolerate, approve, or inspire violence against their political enemies will not be rewarded. In Saudi Arabia, that will be up to the King, who is unlikely to unseat his favorite son. In the US, it will be decided on November 6, at the polls. It is time for Americans to stand up and be counted against violence in politics.
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[White] nationalist
If this image of an American president declaring himself a nationalist doesn’t send chills up your spine, maybe there is something wrong with your nervous system. Here are my reactions:
- He left out one word. Standing in front of this all-white audience, he didn’t have to say “white” nationalist. He knows and they know what he meant. His supporters will deny it, but this is a president who seeks to turn out racists, his strongest constituency, and to suppress votes by minorities. We’ll have to wait until November 6 to see how successful he is, or whether his blatant racism and misogyny will ensure that minorities and women come to the polls in record numbers. Indications so far are that they will.
- Wharton School should be ashamed. Any student who has taken Econ 101 knows that no country can prosper if it closes itself off to trade. Yes, globalists like me want the world the prosper, because then Americans do too. The President’s tariffs and other protectionist moves generate retaliation and are against American interests. They will sooner or later end the long Obama expansion. That’s what the stock market is signaling these days with its fall back towards the level when Trump took office. Remember those tweets about the soaring Dow Jones? Gone with the wind.
- The President’s focus on “the caravan” of mostly Hondurans heading to the US through Mexico is the perfect vehicle to focus both racism and protectionism while distracting attention from the Administration’s own failure to strengthen border protection. The effort to scare people away by mistreating them is not working. Apprehensions of illegal immigrants in the US are up, after a dip early in this Administration:
But it is also important to note that there is no reason to believe the participants in the caravan intend to immigrate illegally. Most won’t even make it to the US border, if past experience is a valid indicator. Of those who do, many will declare themselves asylum-seekers, who are not illegal immigrants. The standards for proving a “well-founded fear of persecution” are exacting. Few will get asylum and most will instead be deported.
The President has already admitted he has no evidence for his claim that “unknown Middle Easterners” are in the caravan. He just thinks it might be possible because that has happened before (in miniscule numbers). His promise to cut off aid to Honduras and others countries from which people migrate is simply counter-productive: the aid is spent on economic development efforts that make migration less likely.
President Trump has gone out of his way to claim the “white nationalist” label. Americans need to keep that in mind as the November 6 election approaches, along with the sputtering stock market, the slowing pace of job growth compared to the Obama years, the tax cut for the super rich, the damage tariffs are doing to US exports, and the exaggerated fear of immigrants. Not to mention the Republican effort to end health insurance for people with pre-existing conditions. It is time to vote not only conscience, but self interest.
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Thinking things through
The evidence is building that the murder of Jamal Khashoggi was not an accident or the result of a fight but rather a planned operation. The Turks have made available video of a “body double” dressed in Jamal’s clothes (unsullied by a fight) leaving the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. This comes on top of other hints: the presence of up to 15 Saudis sent to the consulate for the occasion, the identity of at least one of these as close to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), allegations about the professions of some of the others, and suggestions that the Saudis scouted locations where a body might be hidden near Istanbul.
All of this needs to be received with some skepticism. It is coming from the Turkish government, which is gunning for MbS and has its own malfeasances to account for, including the jailing hundreds of journalists and the beating demonstrators in Washington by President Erdogan’s security agents. Those who come to equity should do so with clean hands, but those are hard to come by in the Middle East.
Still, the question of why the Trump Administration is doing its best to stay close to the Saudi royal family is a valid one. Let me count the reasons:
- The White House needs the Saudi Arabia for its campaign against Iran.
- Especially important is the Kingdom’s ability to blunt a further rise in oil prices as sanctions are reimposed on Iran two days before the November 6 mid-term election.
- Without the pressure the Kingdom can bring to bear on the Palestinians, there is no hope at all for Jared Kushner to produce the “deal of the century” with Israel that President Trump has promised.
- The Americans also need Saudi Arabia for the fight against jihadi terrorism, including the financial constraints that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin discussed with MbS this week even after cancelling his appearance for an investment conference.
There are two other factors personal to Trump:
- Purchases of and investment in Trump real estate, about which the President has bragged in public.
- Weapons deals, which Trump claims total an entirely mythical $110 billion (there is no evidence they have amounted so far to more than $5 billion, much of it agreed under President Obama).
What it all adds up to is a powerful incentive to maintain relations with Saudi Arabia as best can be done under the circumstances.
Congressional reaction to Jamal’s death has focused on the war against Iranian-supported Houthis in Yemen, about which there are doubts on both sides of the aisle. The Washington Post wants to end American support for the Saudi/Emirati campaign, which depends heavily on US intelligence, equipment, maintenance, and supplies.
But no one seems to have thought this idea through to its manifold consequences. What would ending US support mean for the Houthi threat to shipping in the Red Sea and to its southern choke point, the Bab al Mandeb? What would it mean for the American drone and special operations attacks on Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula? What would it mean for southern secessionist sentiment, which has been growing even as southerners carry a big part of the burden of fighting against the Houthis? What would it mean for humanitarian relief, stabilization, and reconstruction in Yemen, the poorest and now one of the most devastated countries in the Middle East?
If Jamal’s death teaches nothing else it should at least be a lesson in making sure we think things through before taking action.
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Peace Picks: October 22 – 28
1. Completing Europe: Will Macedonia seize its moment? | Monday, October 22, 2018 | 4:00 pm – 5:15 pm | Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 2005 | Register Here
On September 30, Macedonians voted in a referendum that would rename the country North Macedonia and remove the key obstacle to NATO and European Union (EU) membership. A boycott effort, outside influences, and ambivalent results – more than 90 percent voting yes, but below 40 percent turnout – raise questions about what comes next.
Will the government in Skopje muster the constitutional majority required to adopt the changes called for in the Prespa Agreement it negotiated with Greece? If not, will the country face snap parliamentary elections? How does this influence the calculus in Greece ahead of its own difficult parliamentary vote on the agreement? What impact does this have on the region and prospects for future NATO and EU enlargement. What roles are the United States, Europe and Russia playing in all this?
Speakers
The Rt. Hon. Lord Robertson of Port Ellen
Former Secretary General of NATO
Lilica Kitanovska
Chief, VOA Macedonian Service
Damon Wilson
Executive Vice President, Programs and Strategy, Atlantic Council
2. Turmoil in Nicaragua: Is there an end in sight? | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 9:00 am – 11:00 am | Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 6th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Since April 2018, Nicaragua has been rocked by street protests against the government of President Daniel Ortega. Amidst harsh measures that criminalize social protest, the government arrested over two dozen opposition activists and leaders on Sunday, October 14th, subsequently releasing them after an international outcry.
According to the OAS Inter-American Human Rights Commission, over 300 people have been killed, the majority of them anti-government demonstrators. A broad civic alliance consisting of the private sector, student, labor, and human rights groups, and intellectuals has demanded an end to the repression, the resignation of Ortega, and the holding of early elections. Attempts by the Catholic Church to mediate a dialogue have thus far failed.
Speakers
Cynthia J. Arnson
Director, Latin American Program, Woodrow Wilson Center
Douglas Castro
Professor & Researcher, Universidad Centroamericana
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Lesther Alemán
Student of Communications, Universidad Centroamericana
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Jeancarlo López
Student of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Nicaragua
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Dr. Shelley McConnell
Associate Professor of Government
St. Lawrence University
3. Israel in a Turbulent Region: A Conversation with Ephraim Sneh | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm | Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 6th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Israel sits at the center of a region in the throes of several major challenges, including the situations in Iran, Syria, and Lebanon as well as the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Join the Wilson Center for a conversation with Ephraim Sneh, a long-time Israeli official and analyst of Israel’s foreign policy and the region at large. He will address these challenges as well as the state of U.S.-Israeli relations.
Speakers
Jane Harman
Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center
Aaron David Miller
Vice President for New Initiatives and Middle East Program Director, Wilson Center
General (Ret.) Ephraim Sneh
Chairman, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue, Netanya Academic College Former Cabinet Member and Knesset Member
4. On the Brink of Brexit: The United Kingdom, Ireland and Europe | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | Brookings Institution | Falk Auditorium: 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The United Kingdom will leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. But as the date approaches, important aspects of the withdrawal agreement as well as the future relationship between the U.K. and EU, particularly on trade, remain unresolved. Nowhere are the stakes higher than in Northern Ireland, where the re-imposition of a hard border with Ireland could threaten a hard-fought peace. Scotland, which voted resoundingly against Brexit, has raised questions about the future of devolved governance arrangements in the U.K., while the independence question remains alive. As Robert Bosch Senior Fellow Amanda Sloat writes in her recent report “Divided kingdom: How Brexit is remaking the UK’s constitutional order,” “Brexit will alter not one but two unions: the European Union and the United Kingdom.”
On October 23, 2018, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host a panel discussion on the Brexit endgame. It will examine what the decisions of the coming weeks could mean for the U.K., Ireland and Northern Ireland, Scotland, the European Union, and the United States. Sloat will be joined on the panel by Douglas Alexander, former U.K. Secretary of State for Scotland and Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs; Lucinda Creighton, former Irish Minister for European Affairs; and Sir Kim Darroch, British Ambassador to the United States. Edward Luce of the Financial Times will moderate.
Speakers
Thomas Wright
Director, Center on the United States and Europe
Amanda Sloat
Robert Bosch Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Douglas Alexander
Senior Fellow, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Chair, UNICEF UK
Lucinda Creighton
CEO, Vulcan Consulting
Sir Kim Darroch
British Ambassador to the United States, British Embassy
Edward Luce
Washington Columnist and Commentator, Financial Times
5. The Future of AMISOM | Wednesday, October 24, 2018 | 1:30 pm – 3:30 pm | Center for Strategic & International Studies | 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
A panel discussion addressing the evolution, challenges, and future of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Deployed in 2007 to counter the threat of al-Shabaab in Somalia, AMISOM remains the African Union’s most extensive and dangerous military intervention. Eleven years later, however, Somalia’s security challenges persist. As al-Shabaab continues to stage deadly attacks, questions linger regarding AMISOM’s transition, the commitment of its Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) and the ability of the Somali National Army to stand on its own.
The event will feature Paul D. Williams, and his recent book, Fighting for Peace in Somalia: A History and Analysis of the African Union Mission (AMISOM), 2007-2017, which offers a meticulous account of AMISOM since its deployment. Paul Williams will present insights from his book on the history and obstacles of AMISOM, and address how AMISOM’s funders and troop contributors envision its future. Amanda Dory, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, will then weigh in on potential avenues through which AMISOM could transition from Somalia.
Speakers
Paul D. Williams
Associate Director of the Security Policy Studies M.A. Program, George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs
Amanda Dory
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense
Judd Devermont
Director, Africa Program
6. US Policy & The War in Yemen | Thursday, October 25, 2018 | 10:00 am – 11:30 pm | Brookings Institute | Falk Auditorium: 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The war in Yemen is in its fourth year of unabating violence. What began as a power struggle within the government has now ensnared a population of nearly 30 million. With tens of thousands killed, millions displaced, and many more dependent on humanitarian assistance for survival, the state is on the brink of collapse
Yemen now constitutes one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world, in a large and impoverished country. Nonetheless, little discussion is devoted to how U.S. policy affects this disaster and what might be done to ease the dire conditions on the ground. The United States supports the war effort of the Saudi- and Emirati-led coalition in the war, fighting against Iranian-backed Houthis. The war will also have major implications for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its stability. Riyadh is America’s oldest ally in the region and Washington has important geopolitical interests at stake. In September, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo certified that the U.S. allies were working to reduce civilian casualties, reportedly overriding staff recommendations on this.
Speakers
Natan Sachs
Director, Center for Middle East Policy
Bruce Riedel
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy
Dafna Rand
Vice President for Policy and Research, Mercy Corps
Fatima Abo Alasrar
Senior Analyst, Arabia Foundation
Daniel L. Byman
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
7. Next Steps for US Strategy in Syria | Friday, October 26, 2018 | 12:00pm – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute | 1201 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Suite 400 Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Hudson Institute will host a panel to assess U.S. policy in Syria. Panelists will consider how the Trump Administration’s new Syria strategy diverges from previous administrations’ and analyze how the new strategy intends to respond to outside influencers, particularly Russia, Iran, and the Islamic State, who continue to obstruct U.S. efforts within Syria.
Speakers
Mariam Jalabi
Representative, Syrian Opposition Coalition to the United Nations
Michael Doran
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Jonas Parello-Plesner
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Jomana Qaddour
Doctoral Candidate, Georgetown University Law Center
Former Senior Policy Analyst, U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom
8. Prevent to Protect: From Counter-Radicalization to Disengagement | Friday, October 26, 2018 | 2:00pm – 3:00 pm | Center for Strategic & International Studies | 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Join Muriel Domenach, Secretary General of the French government’s Inter-ministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization (CIPDR), as she discusses France’s ongoing efforts to counter radicalization and violent extremism.
“Prevent to Protect,” the plan released by CIPDR in February 2018, offered 60 measures to refocus France’s policy of prevention around five key themes:
- Shielding individuals from radicalization
- Widening the detection and prevention network
- Understanding and preparing for developments in radicalization
- Training local stakeholders and assessing practices
- Tailoring disengagement schemes
After Ms. Domenach’s remarks, Seth G. Jones, Harold Brown Chair and Director of the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, will host a moderated armchair discussion comparing and contrasting the French and American perspectives on the issues of returning foreign fighters, counter-narrative efforts, and building community resilience.
Speakers
Muriel Domenach
Secretary General, Interministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization
Seth G. Jones
Harold Brown Chair
Director, Transnational Threats Project
Senior Adviser, International Security Program
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The time has come
Kosovo has decided to begin the process of adopting legislation that will eventually convert its lightly-armed Kosovo Security Force into an army. Serbia is opposed and warns of consequences. I hope that is as empty a threat as the the threat Kosovo’s army will pose to Serbia.
Kosovo aims for a force of 5,000, thoroughly integrated into NATO from the first. It will be something like 10 years before that level is reached, and possibly another 10 more before the force is fully capable, provided Pristina can find the financial resources needed. The Kosovo army will never be a match for the Serbian army of more than 40,000 (plus 50,000 reserves). Even if constituted as a territorial defense force, a fully developed and equipped Kosovo army would be able to do little more than slow a Serbian advance for a week or 10 days. The real opposition to a Serbian Army invasion would come from citizen mobilization, not from a formally constituted army.
Nor would a properly constituted Kosovo army integrated with NATO pose a significant threat to Serbs inside Kosovo. The threat from disorder and riot is much larger, as we saw only too well in March 2004 when Albanians attacked Serb communities, churches, and other religious sites. The main instrument for keeping internal order should of course remain the Kosovo Police Force, which is the most trusted institution in the country and has prevented any repetition of the rioting for almost 15 years. May they continue to succeed.
The real reason for Serb opposition to a Kosovo army has to do not with threat to Serbia or Serbs but with Belgrade’s own threat to Kosovo. Serbia still claims all of Kosovo as its sovereign territory and resists any moves that undermine that claim, even the withdrawal of a now largely pointless UN Mission that Belgrade views as symbolizing Security Council resolution 1244, which makes vague and not dispositive reference to Yugoslav sovereignty.
Belgrade still has levers to pull. Its main effort in recent months has focused on harassing Serbs who join the Kosovo Security Force, in an effort to get them to quit. The intimidation is unfortunately working, since Serbian security forces can reach easily into Serb communities inside Kosovo and have opportunities at the boundary/border to hassle Serbs who live in Kosovo but visit Serbia.
If Belgrade really were concerned with the threat from a Kosovo army, its best move would be to recognize Kosovo and establish diplomatic relations with it. Kosovo would then design its army not for territorial defense but rather for international deployments, which is really the most important function remaining for the armies of Balkan countries that join NATO. A Kosovo Security Force capable of helping to operate, maintain, and fly the helicopters the Americans want to keep at Camp Bondsteel would be a serious contribution to the Alliance and no threat to Serbia.
The time has come for a Kosovo army. Serbia would do better to reduce the threat environment to which Pristina needs to respond than to continue a quixotic effort to prevent the inevitable.
PS: Here is Petrit Selimi’s summary of Belgrade’s alarmist headlines on the issue:
Petrit SelimiVerified account @Petrit9h9 hours agoMore
Good morning with a taste of fear, loathing and warmongering. Serbian tabloids start the day informing their public “Albanians want war” “Albanians and West will arrest thousands of Serbs” any day now, and that Serbia must “declare occupation of Kosovo if Kosovo gets an army”.
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