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Midterms

Attention is focused today on the likely outcome of tomorrow’s midterm election. I’ll get to that, but first a word about the process, mainly for my many non-American readers.

The United States is a federation, which means it is a union of distinct states that on many issues govern themselves. That includes setting the rules for, and conducting, election of 438 members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the 100-member Senate every two years. Representatives are elected from single-member districts. Senators represent entire states, which also elect their own governors and members of state legislatures. The result is a hodge-podge of rules on how Congressional districts are drawn, where the polling places are located, the hours the polls are open, how people vote (on paper or machines, for example), what identification is needed, and how the votes are counted, as well as on registration, early voting, and absentee voting. 

There has been a lot of controversy on these issues in the run-up to the midterms. It is possible, even likely, that some of these controversies will persist even after election day in some states. The big issue is whether citizens have been allowed a fair and equal chance to have their vote count. Voter ID laws that discriminate against American Indians by requiring a street address their reservations don’t use is just one example. In some states, polling places have been closed in minority neighborhoods, voter registrations have disappeared, and voters have been purged from the register without being informed. All these complaints come mainly from the Democratic side of the political equation.

Republicans claim there is a problem with voter fraud, that is people voting who are not legally entitled to do so or people who vote in more than one place. There have been few demonstrated cases of voter fraud in the US (the rightist Heritage Foundation database claimed 1132 proven cases in 47 states last summer, not enough to decide more than a tiny fraction of elections). It is true that many people are registered in more than one state, since Americans move frequently and rarely un-register after they do. This is one reason turn-out numbers in the US are seemingly so low: there are a lot of people on some voter rolls who have moved (or died) and have no intention of again voting in a state they were previously registered in. But you should expect to hear in close races claims that they were decided fraudulently. It’s part of the political game. 

Polls close in some districts as early as 6 pm and many by 7 or 8 pm. But of course the continental US is spread across three time zones (five counting Hawaii), so it may be midnight or later when control of the House and Senate are decided. Lots of states will also be electing governors and state legislatures. Those contests may give an early indication of who is up and who is down. If black candidates Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum were to win in normally Republican Georgia and Florida, for example, it would be a relatively early indication that the Democrats have been successful in turning out their voters. 

On this last day before the election, Democrats are up by an unusually wide 8.2% margin in generic polling about control of Congress. But generic polls don’t count tomorrow. Polling on the House races gives the Democrats an 85% chance of gaining a majority. Polling on the Senate races gives the Republicans an 85% chance of retaining their majority. But polls are all based on assumptions about turnout that could be dramatically wrong this time around. Both Republicans and Democrats seem energized and early voting allowed in many states has been massive. 

How will we tell who won? At the very least, to win the Democrats need to capture control of the House, which would enable them to hold oversight hearings and issue subpoenas to compel testimony. Winning control also of the Senate would spell a smackdown. Continued Republican control of both Houses, even if by smaller margins, would be a triumphal confirmation of Trump’s presidency. While presidents often shy from exposure during the midterms, he has been actively campaigning, in particular to try to defend the Republican majority in the Senate. Success in that, while losing the House, he will be prepared to claim as victory. 

More on the foreign policy implications of these possible outcomes in a future post.