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Divided

The midterms confirmed what we all knew: the United States remains sharply divided. Democrats won the House, though without the landslide Blue Wave they had hoped for. Republicans held the Senate, with a few gains for which President Trump will take credit (and may even declare a Red Wave). Democrats would have won many more seats in the House were representation proportional to their votes. But gerrymandered districts give the Republicans a boost in seats that is greater than their votes.

Winning the House is a big deal. Democrats will now have the power in the House to convene hearings and subpeona witnesses in order to investigate Administration malfeasance, which has been endemic. But Republicans will continue to approve Trump-appointed judges and other officials in the Senate. Legislation will be difficult for both parties. The next two years may amount to little more than a prolonged and painful campaign for the presidential election in 2020. 

The House Democrats are expected to lean against continuing support for the Saudi/Emirati war in Yemen, against Vladimir Putin’s various efforts to project power, and against war with Iran and other American adventures abroad. Those positions may get some headlines, but the Administration can still do pretty much as it wants, unless Republicans join with Democrats in passing legislation to back up their preferences. The President retains control over foreign policy. 

House investigations of the Administration may produce the most important results from these midterms. If, as many of us suspect, Trump real estate ventures have relied heavily on Russian money-laundering, that will come out. So too will any “dirt” the Russians may have on Trump. The Special Counsel investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election, which would have been in peril had the Republicans retained control of the House, is likely now the least of Trump’s worries. 

The Democrats are still fighting an uphill battle. There are some important races undecided, including Stacey Abrams’ bid in Georgia to become the first black woman to be elected governor. But both Beto O’Rourke, the Democrats high hope for Senate in Texas, and Andrew Gillum, their strong candidate for governor in Florida, lost. They can be comforted by a string of victories in the Midwest and Pennsylvania, where court-ordered redistricting undid Republican gerrymanders.

The election confirmed that Trump now owns the Republicans.   Those who wholeheartedly backed Trump on the whole won. Those who tried to distance themselves from the President generally lost. With the retirement of several Republicans who were occasionally critical of the White House, Trump is set to command his party with little to no opposition. He will be emboldened, not chastened. 

So divided we are, a bit more than the day before yesterday. I doubt we will fall, but we won’t exactly stand either. America divided is America unmoored. The consequences aren’t likely to be good.