November 12, 2018 - peacefare.net

Day: November 12, 2018

Demography is destiny

Posted in Tal Marom - November 12, 2018 - 0 Comment

The Brookings Institute November 8 hosted a discussion of the 2018 midterm election results. The panel consisted of Elaine Kamarck, founding director of the Center for Effective Public Management, William A. Galston, Ezra K. Zilkha Chair of Governance Studies, Molly E. Reynolds, Fellow of Governance Studies, and Vanessa Williamson, Fellow of Governance Studies. Panelists discussed voter demographics driving the election, with particular attention to motives, identity, and demographic divides.

Voter turnout in 2018 was unusual for a midterm election: 113 million Americans showed up, turnout of approximately 49%. This was the largest percentage for a midterm election since 1966; the all-time record set in 1914 was 51%. Midterms generally feature low voter turnout. It was 36% in 2014. Public interest and mobilization have clearly increased.

Galston cautioned that increased turnout was not the result of a predicted Blue Wave. The case of Florida demonstrates this. In 2014, 5.9 million Floridians turned out for the gubernatorial election, leading to Republican Governor Scott’s victory by less than 1%. This year, 8.1 million turned out, with Republican Ron DeSantis apparently winning the governorship by less than 1%. We are witnessing dramatic mobilization on both sides of the aisle. Reynolds pointed out that typically lagging Democratic turnout is explained by demographics (e.g., young vs. old voters).

Was this a referendum on Donald Trump? Were people voting for or against the President’s administration or policy issues? Williamson highlighted that partisan identification is a stronger predictor of voter choice now than in the past. This year’s race was about mobilization more than persuasion. This is why the country is witnessing a strong fight over the rules of the game. Battles over the democratic process were seen in Georgia, Texas, and particularly Florida, which in a referendum restored felons’ voting rights. Who is eligible and allowed to vote is critical. Passage of Florida’s Amendment 4 will significantly impact future elections, as one in five African American Floridians was previously disenfranchised.

Midterm elections often serve as a rebuke to the party in the White House, a well-studied phenomenon that many scholars view as favoring increased bipartisanship in the federal government. Kamarck saw this election as an vote for division, rather than bipartisanship. She cited differences in the Presidential and Congressional press conferences following the election. While lip service was paid in both to bipartisanship, main points of common ground were limited to “meat and potato” issues such as infrastructure and drug pricing regulation. Even so, the President threatened the prospects of bipartisan infrastructure legislation if the Democrats continue the Mueller investigation and pursue other oversight.

Galston agreed, noting that the Republicans gained seats in the Senate. That gives Majority Leader McConnell a cushion to act on his agenda of approving Republican appointments to executive and judicial positions rather than passing legislation. House Minority Leader Pelosi does not favor impeachment, but Reynolds saw House oversight as a dominating theme moving forward. She argued that Democrats will focus on the President’s tax returns, foreign governments paying to stay at Trump hotels, conflicts of interest among Cabinet Secretaries, and the recent family separation crisis at the border .

Healthcare was the most prominent policy issue in the election, featured in nearly 50% of all campaign ads and 60% of pro-Democratic ads. Democrats emphasized the failed Republican repeal of Obamacare. Pelosi believes coverage for pre-existing conditions handed Democrats victory in the House. Republican governors campaigned on preserving protections for patients with pre-existing conditions, even in states where the Attorneys General joined the lawsuit to overturn the ACA. Galston pointed to exit polls, in which 41% of voters chose healthcare as the single most important issue, trailed by immigration at approximately 30%.

Healthcare was the most prominent campaign issue, featured in nearly 50% of all campaign ads and 60% of pro-Democrat ads.

Reynolds added that different policy issues have differing significance among various demographics. Immigration remains one of the most important issues to white voters. Galston focused on young voters, whose turnout increased by 75% compared to four years ago. Gun control was a critical issue within this demographic. This is due to the role of formative generational experiences as a young adult on lifelong political views. For millennials, mass shootings, many of which have taken place on school campuses, are a defining generational experience. Since young voters are the least likely to turn out, Galston predicts that this issue will only truly head the agenda as millennials enter adulthood.

Millennials were not the only emergent demographic in the election. Kamarck noted that this election featured resurgence in women’s political participation. An overwhelming number of women candidates ran for office and won. The substantial partisan gap among white women is one important explanation for Democratic gains in suburban districts across the nation. The #MeToo Movement provided the context for these gains. Kamarck cautioned that these women are more Independents than Democrats. Reynolds attributed Democratic victories in the suburbs to the role of white, college-educated women, who are firmly entrenched in the Democratic camp. Galston recalled that the partisan gap between white, college-educated men and women is 24 points. Panelists also noted the urban vs. rural gap as one to watch, likely to be important in future elections.

The gender gap between white, college-educated men and women is a significant 24 points.

The panel ended with discussion on the future of the Democratic Party. There was no real Blue Wave, as progressives Andrew Gillum in Florida and Beto O’Rourke in Texas lost. Some “meat and potato” Democrats made gains in the Midwest, winning governorships in Wisconsin and Michigan. Galston added that Republicans did not make major gains in districts that voted for Clinton in 2016. If Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were to return to the the Democratic fold, they could regain the White House in 2020. As Galston put it, the Midwest is the cake, Florida is the frosting, and Georgia and Texas are dreams. In 2016, Clinton spent time in Arizona and Georgia. Galston speculated that the election could have turned out differently if that time and money had been spent in the upper Midwest. Democrats will only win in 2020 if they nominate a candidate fit to carry those states.

Tags : Democracy and Rule of Law, United States

Peace Picks November 12 – 18

Posted in Rory Coleman - November 12, 2018 - 0 Comment

Defending Sovereignty and Information Space | Tuesday, November 13 | 11:30 am – 1 pm | Atlantic Council |
1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here

How should one respond to the many interlocking elements that make up this tool of statecraft in order to reinforce the resiliency of our societies and technology and how to use all levers of national power to contain the negative effects of Russian activities?

Russia has been exploiting agents of influence and information space to sway public opinion and mislead government actors. In the wake of the 2016 US Presidential election, the United States was forced to come to terms with Russian interference in American democratic institutions and the sudden throwback to many Russian Cold War-era hybrid tactics. Nevertheless, the Republic of Estonia, along with other European allies, have been well aware of these tactics and have been working to counter the resurgence of Russian activities.

As hybrid warfare has benefited immensely from the digital age, the United States and its European allies and partners urgently need to comprehend the tasks, purposes, and organization of these tactics in order to reinforce societal and technological resilience to face unprecedented levels of state-sponsored influence and interference campaigns.

A conversation with:
Ambassador Victoria Nuland
Former Assistant Secretary of State for
European and Eurasian Affairs,
US Department of State;
Chief Executive Officer
Center for a New American Security

Dr. Thomas Rid
Professor of Strategic Studies,
School of Advanced International Studies
Johns Hopkins University

General Riho Terras
Commander
Estonian Defense Forces

Moderated by:
H.E. Jonatan Vseviov
Ambassador
Embassy of Estonia to the United States

Hudson Institute will host an event to discuss how the U.S. can maintain a competitive edge in the development of 5G technology and the future of global telecommunications. Panelists include former Federal Communications Commissioner and Hudson Senior Fellow Harold Furchtgott-Roth; CEO of global telecommunications company Rivada Networks Declan Ganley; and former Deputy Chief of Staff to President George W. Bush Karl Rove.

Chinese technology has played a growing role in the global 5G network, with over 58 countries agreeing to use Chinese hardware in their future networks. As it emerges over the next decade, 5G promises to vastly increase the speed and responsiveness of wireless networks. While the rollout of 5G will demand billions of dollars, the companies and countries investing now will have a strong say in not only how 5G transmits information, but how others are able to access the system. The discussion will be moderated by Hudson Senior Fellow Arthur Herman.

Speakers

Harold Furchtgott-Roth Speaker

Former Federal Communications Commissioner and Senior Fellow and Director, Center for the Economics of the Internet, Hudson Institute

Declan Ganley Speaker

CEO, Rivada Networks

Karl Rove Speaker

Former Deputy Chief of Staff to President George W. Bush.

Arthur Herman (Moderator) Speaker

Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

The CSIS Europe Program is delighted to host a conversation with U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT), Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation. With the conclusion of the U.S. midterm elections, we will discuss what the future holds for U.S. policy toward NATO and European security, Russia, the Western Balkans, as well as the U.S.-EU trade relationship from a Congressional perspective. Following Senator Murphy’s remarks, CSIS experts will assess the impact that the new Congress will have on foreign and national security policy, and discuss the issues they will be keeping their eyes on in the 116th Congress.

Featuring:

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D – CT),

Ranking Member, Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation

CSIS Experts

Heather A. Conley,

Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program

William Alan Reinsch,

Senior Adviser and Scholl Chair in International Business

Louis Lauter,

Vice President for Congressional and Government Affairs

The Indo-Pacific region, a key focus of the Trump administration’s foreign policy agenda, is undergoing significant political and strategic realignments with the return to great power competition. India’s role in the region is central to these developments, both in its emerging partnerships with nations like Japan and the United States and in its deepening rivalry with neighboring China. How are these dynamics likely to play out, and what are their broader strategic implications? Please join the Stimson Center for a panel discussion addressing views from across Asia on the political and security impacts of intra-regional cooperation and competition. Our panelists, Manoj Joshi, Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, Brett Lambert, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Manufacturing and Industrial Base Policy, U.S. Department of Defense, Yun Sun, Co-Director of the Stimson Center’s East Asia Program, and Yuki Tatsumi, Co-Director of the Stimson Center’s East Asia Program, will offer comments. Sameer Lalwani, Director of the Stimson Center’s South Asia Program, will convene our meeting, and Elizabeth Threlkeld, South Asia Program Deputy Director, will moderate the discussion.

The Asia Strategy Initiative (ASI) is a joint effort by Stimson’s East, Southeast, and South Asia Program to feature regional perspectives on the shifting strategic dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region. By introducing expert analysis, ASI seeks to facilitate dialogues and develop pragmatic solutions for strategic, political, and economic challenges that the region faces.

What is the state of governance in the various zones in Syria? Is a pre-2011 hyper centralized governance structure conducive to the peace process? How can a Syria-tailored decentralization model help the peace process? In its latest book publication, Centralization and Decentralization in Syria: The Concept and Practice, Omran Center for Strategic Studies examines Syria’s current forms of governance and how experiences on the ground, in the various zones of influence, converge or diverge from the concepts of centralization and decentralization.

To discuss the book and its findings, New America and Omran present Dr. Ammar Kahf, Executive Director and co-founder of the Omran Center who earned his Ph.D. in Political Science and Islamic Studies at the University of California Los Angeles and previously served as the Chief of Staff to the Secretary General of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces from 2012 to 2013, and Mr. Yaser Tabbara, Esq., co-founder and board member of the Omran Center, and a former Senior Advisor to the Syrian Interim Government Prime Minister in 2013. Further remarks will be provided by Mona Yacoubian, Senior Adviser for Syria, Middle East, and North Africa at the United States Institute of Peace and former Deputy Assistant Administrator in the Middle East Bureau at USAID from 2014-2017 where she had responsibility for Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon.

Participants:

Ammar Kahf, @ammarkahf
Executive Director, Omran Center for Strategic Studies

Yaser Tabbara, @abulyas
Co-Founder and Board Member, Omran Center for Strategic Studies

Mona Yacoubian, @myacoubian
Senior Adviser, United States Institute of Peace

Moderator:

Peter Bergen, @peterbergencnn
Vice President, New America

Please join us for a discussion of the external and internal drivers of change in post-Cold War Russian nuclear strategy. Dr. Kristin Ven Bruusgaard will argue that current Russian strategy is reducing the emphasis on nuclear weapons and oriented primarily toward deterring rather than fighting nuclear war. Improved conventional military capabilities are reducing Russia’s need to use nuclear weapons to compensate for conventional inferiority, and the most influential actors formulating nuclear strategy in Russia now argue for enhancing conventional and non-conventional tools to influence the course of conflict.

This event is made possible through generous support from Carnegie Corporation of New York.

FEATURING:

Kristen Ven Bruusgaard,

MacArthur Postdoctoral Fellow, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford

Olga Olika (discussant),

Senior Advisor and Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS

Michael Kofman (moderator),

Senior Research Scientist, Russia Studies Program, CNA

Tags : China, Democracy and Rule of Law, India, Russia, Syria

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Day: November 12, 2018

Demography is destiny

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