Day: December 20, 2018
Fubar squared
Donald Trump’s unanticipated (at this particular moment) but still not surprising (because we all knew he wanted to do it) announcement of quick withdrawal of US troops from Syria has consequences:
- The vacuum the Americans are opening in eastern Syria will be filled, with the Turks coming from the north and Syrian government forces (with Shia allies) from the south and west. The result could be still another major clash in Syria, unless Ankara and Damascus come to some sort of mutual accommodation.
- The Syrian Kurds and Arabs who have been fighting ISIS with US support under the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) rubric now have to run for shelter. Best bet is that the Arabs seek safe haven with the Turks, who will be willing to support them. The Kurds, who are affiliated with Kurdish rebels inside Turkey, will seek shelter with the Syrian regime.
- The Kurds have already indicated they may release several thousand ISIS prisoners they hold, thus ensuring problems for whoever gains control over the SDF territory or part of it. The Kurds will also presumably try to hold on to the oil production facilities in the east, to use as a bargaining chip with the regime.
- Moscow is gleeful, Ankara pleased, and Iran satisfied, even if President Trump is tweeting that they are unhappy because now they will have to fight ISIS without the Americans. Each for different reasons disliked the US role in Syria, and now their diplomatic leverage has been vastly improved. None were as concerned about ISIS as the US was.
- What remains of the Syrian opposition is dismayed and demoralized. Many had some hope the SDF territory would provide a viable and even attractive alternative to Assad’s Syria.
- American allies in Europe and elsewhere are horrified that a presidential tweet announced a major policy decision without any consultation or advance notice and in contradiction to what Washington has been telling them for months. This will be particularly galling to the French (pun intended) and make the British croak (also intended), since both have special forces in eastern Syria fighting alongside the Americans.
- Trump’s national security apparatus may be even more undone, as National Security Advisor Bolton, Secretary of State Pompeo, and Secretary of Defense Mattis had all advised against this move. Republican national security stalwarts in Congress are beside themselves.
- Jim Jeffrey, the very capable retired foreign service officer who had finally put in place a coherent American policy on Syria that depended for its negotiating leverage on keeping Syria’s northeast, will be feeling vertigo as his platform falls out from under him.
It is entirely possible that Trump will reverse or mitigate this disruptive decision, perhaps by continuing the American air campaign against ISIS, which contrary to the President’s tweeting has not been defeated completely. But that will only compound the confusion that friends and adversaries are feeling.
The situation is fubar squared.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Opening gambit
Kosovo Prime Minister Haradinaj has circulated a 30-page draft comprehensive agreement between his own Republic and Serbia. It contains a lot of things I might like, including extensive arrangements for cross-border cooperation, protection of Serbs and Serb monuments in Kosovo, and implementation of the many technical agreements already reached between Pristina and Belgrade.
But there are some obvious problems. This paper is essentially to an opening negotiation proposal. From that perspective, it incorporates serious negotiating errors that should be fixed before any encounter with Belgrade. On first reading, I see two glaring problems:
- The agreement foresees entry into force before Kosovo membership in the United Nations. Since that can be blocked by Russia or China even if Belgrade is prepared to allow it, Kosovo could find itself out on a limb, having committed to give Serbia the substantial benefits contained in the agreement without getting a big part of the quid pro quo. It is inadvisable to run that risk. UN membership should come first. Only after that is finalized should a comprehensive agreement of this sort be signed.
- The draft agreement includes a long list of unilateral concessions to Serbia on governance arrangements in Kosovo at both the central and local levels. All such concessions should be proposed as reciprocal, not unilateral. There is no reason why Kosovo should not ask for the Albanian-inhabited areas of southern Serbia whatever arrangements are provided to Serbs in Kosovo.
Admittedly reciprocity is not provided for in the Ahtisaari agreement (from which many of these governance and other provisions are derived) but that is now overtaken by events, because Serbia refused to sign on. A sovereign state should not make unilateral concessions in its own proposal, unless it is certain they will be appreciated. The way to determine whether Serbia is really interested is to see if they are prepared to pay the price of reciprocity. If so, fine. If not, why should Kosovo concede even before the negotiation starts?
I see other potential concerns as well. The draft agreement includes a dispute settlement mechanism that relies on the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. Why not the International Court of Justice? The draft agreement omits reference to cross-border cooperation between the countries’ security forces. This should be included: no two countries sharing a fortified border, which for the foreseeable future this one will be, can afford not to have regular consultations on national security issues as well as dialogue between their chiefs of staff. Kosovo does not yet have a full-fledged army, but cooperation of this sort should be starting sooner rather than later.
I am told that the Kosovo parliament, in creating a new negotiation team, has ruled out border changes. That is certainly a good thing.
I’m pretty sure I’ll find additional wrinkles in this opening gambit, but that will have to suffice for now. Anyone want to join me in offering suggestions and comments?
RSS - Posts
