Donald Trump’s unanticipated (at this particular moment) but still not surprising (because we all knew he wanted to do it) announcement of quick withdrawal of US troops from Syria has consequences:
- The vacuum the Americans are opening in eastern Syria will be filled, with the Turks coming from the north and Syrian government forces (with Shia allies) from the south and west. The result could be still another major clash in Syria, unless Ankara and Damascus come to some sort of mutual accommodation.
- The Syrian Kurds and Arabs who have been fighting ISIS with US support under the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) rubric now have to run for shelter. Best bet is that the Arabs seek safe haven with the Turks, who will be willing to support them. The Kurds, who are affiliated with Kurdish rebels inside Turkey, will seek shelter with the Syrian regime.
- The Kurds have already indicated they may release several thousand ISIS prisoners they hold, thus ensuring problems for whoever gains control over the SDF territory or part of it. The Kurds will also presumably try to hold on to the oil production facilities in the east, to use as a bargaining chip with the regime.
- Moscow is gleeful, Ankara pleased, and Iran satisfied, even if President Trump is tweeting that they are unhappy because now they will have to fight ISIS without the Americans. Each for different reasons disliked the US role in Syria, and now their diplomatic leverage has been vastly improved. None were as concerned about ISIS as the US was.
- What remains of the Syrian opposition is dismayed and demoralized. Many had some hope the SDF territory would provide a viable and even attractive alternative to Assad’s Syria.
- American allies in Europe and elsewhere are horrified that a presidential tweet announced a major policy decision without any consultation or advance notice and in contradiction to what Washington has been telling them for months. This will be particularly galling to the French (pun intended) and make the British croak (also intended), since both have special forces in eastern Syria fighting alongside the Americans.
- Trump’s national security apparatus may be even more undone, as National Security Advisor Bolton, Secretary of State Pompeo, and Secretary of Defense Mattis had all advised against this move. Republican national security stalwarts in Congress are beside themselves.
- Jim Jeffrey, the very capable retired foreign service officer who had finally put in place a coherent American policy on Syria that depended for its negotiating leverage on keeping Syria’s northeast, will be feeling vertigo as his platform falls out from under him.
It is entirely possible that Trump will reverse or mitigate this disruptive decision, perhaps by continuing the American air campaign against ISIS, which contrary to the President’s tweeting has not been defeated completely. But that will only compound the confusion that friends and adversaries are feeling.
The situation is fubar squared.