The Democratic House and foreign policy

The new US House of Representatives that was elected November 6 met for the first time yesterday. The Democratic majority re-installed Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, a job she held 2007-11.

The world asks: what does this mean for us?

The short answer is not much right away. Washington is preoccupied for now with reopening a big slice of the government, which is shut down due to an impasse over funding for border security. President Trump wants $5 billion for his border wall, which he is now sometimes calling a barrier or fence.  He has betrayed his promise to get Mexico to pay for it, but still insists on building it to meet what he terms a crisis of unauthorized immigrants. The Democrats think there are better ways to protect the border from unauthorized immigration, which is generally down.

Until that gets resolved, the Congress isn’t going to do much on foreign policy. The President has almost absolute power in dealing with other countries, except when (as on the border wall) the Congress uses the budget, a war powers resolution, or sanctions to shape US relations with other countries. That usually requires legislation, which needs to pass in both Houses. Ambassadors and other presidential appointees need only be approved in the Senate, which confirmed a slew of them last week. The Democratic-controlled House will focus initially on the manifold scandals in the Trump Administration, including the President’s own financial affairs and the malfeasance of multiple cabinet members.

But eventually the House Democrats will get a shot at foreign policy. Using the subpoena power of the majority, they will certainly hold hearings on Russian and other interference in US elections. They will await the results of the Special Counsel investigation before deciding on whether to impeach the President for “high crimes and misdemeanors” related to Russia, but even if they do conviction and removal from office requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate that is nowhere to be seen, yet. Impeaching without convicting is not a winning political maneuver.

Hearings on other foreign policy issues will come as well. The Middle East and China are likely subjects. A lot of Democrats are unhappy with the withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and with Trump’s support for Saudi Arabia. Some, including two new Muslim members, are unhappy with unconditional US support for Israel and neglect of relations with the Palestinians. The now global military and economic challenge from China will interest both Democrats and Republicans. The House will scrutinize the continued US military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan.

These hearings and many public pronouncements from House members will attract lots of attention abroad, but it is difficult to parse out of the cacophony of voices in Washington where American policy is headed. For the moment, the best assumption is that there will be no big changes as a result of the Democratic takeover of the House, even if the tone changes: less unequivocal towards Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Israel, more nuanced with respect to Iran, more friendly towards NATO and the European Union, and more skeptical towards North Korea.

China is another question. Right now, Americans are discovering the obvious: they have more to fear from Chinese economic failure than from its success. The slowdown in Chinese growth, partly caused by American tariffs and Chinese retaliation, is causing major losses in stock markets worldwide, which are anticipating both declining corporate profits and high US interest rates. A lot will depend on the outcome of trade negotiations with Beijing, which are due to reach a conclusion in March. If they don’t, expect slowing growth, also due to the US government shutdown and the Federal Reserve’s concerns about inflation.

President Trump had a halcyon first two years. Republicans controlled both Houses of Congress, the Senate moved rapidly to approve their preferred judges, lessening the burden of environmental and other regulations on business faced no serious opposition in Congress, and the Obama expansion was still powering decent economic growth. The next two years are likely to be far more difficult, with the economy slowing if not declining, the Special Counsel reporting on his findings, and the House Democrats conducting in-depth investigations. The party is over, even if Trump continues to sing the same tunes.