Empowered decentralization
The Brookings Institution held a panel discussion March 12 about a city-based strategy for rebuilding Libya, with Jeffrey Feltman, Fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, Alice Hunt Friend, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Frederic Wehrey, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Karim Mezran, Senior Fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and Federica Saini Fasanotti, Senior Fellow in the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence. The report outlining the city-based strategy is “Empowered decentralization: A city-based strategy for rebuilding Libya.”
The report recommends focusing the country’s economic, political and security activity on its major cities, with the return of US permanent presence in Libya.
Wehrey asserted that General Khalifa Haftar has gained ground in Libya, extending his control over oil and water sources. In addition, on territory and population still out of his control some armed groups and political actors have declared themselves with him, while other militias are still negotiating. Haftar also provides cash and protection for some towns and municipalities in the south, but clashes among different armed groups still flare up and militias still hold sway in some places. Haftar’s meeting at the end of February in Abu Dhabi with Fayez Al Sarraj (chair of the officially recognized Presidential Council) was an important step forward, but ordinary Libyans are upset with the UAE’s role in deciding their country’s future. Reconciliation among elites is important, but so too is grassroots involvement in the political process.
Mezran emphasized that the main goal of the Libyan revolution is to ensure dignity, freedom, human rights, and a pluralist political system. In most cities, local authorities have handled the security situation. The UN has to understand local dynamics and help to strengthen their work. This work at the local level needs to be inserted in a national framework to create a decentralized state, not establishing merely a state of cities and villages. Just as Libya was supported by the US and the UN to get independence, international guidance is still very much needed today. The US can play a key role in settling the conflict.
Feltman made clear that any agreement among the Libyan elite needs to have grassroots support. The Abu Dhabi meeting was a promising start for a top-down agreement. Long-standing political proposals such as reform of the presidency council, unification of the institutions, setting up a new government, and holding elections were on the table. Polls show that the Libyan people expect to choose their own leaders through elections, but Feltman cautions that elections alone do not create a democracy.
Fassanotti spoke about the tribal and ethnic differences that are still present in Libya. Most of the people reside in big cities, but people in the desert have not changed and desert culture is still influential and widespread. The idea of federalism can be a solution for a democratic Libya in the future. The type of federalism Fassanotti contemplates for Libya is similar to that of Germany and Switzerland, with a strong center able to govern the state. For the time being, a city-based model might be more viable as the state is still in the process of reconstructing itself.
Friend stated that the primary security institution in Libya is the militias, who are extremely variable in their size, shape, power, and territory, along with ideological commitment and economic leverage. Although there is a government-organized security institution, national security provision is lacking. Control over security provision in Libya is thus a major source of political power. General Haftar and the National Libyan Army have consolidated most of the territory but not all of it. Since security is a major issue, decentralization of politics and power remain a challenge. The presence of ISIS, though a minor issue for Libyans, is a major concern for the US that might incentivize more US involvement in Libya in the future.
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