Day: March 27, 2019
Pompeo midway to failure
Secretary Pompeo in testimony todaycited the Administration’s foreign policy priorities:
- Countering Russia and China,
- Denuclearization of North Korea,
- Venezuela,
- Iran,
- and supporting allies and partners.
So how are they doing?
The only serious effort to counter Russia has come from the Congress, which has levied several layers of sanctions on Moscow for interference in the 2016 US election, and from the State Department, for Moscow’s murder of a defector in the United Kingdom. President Trump has still not said an unkind word about President Putin and continues to cite him as more reliable than the American intelligence community, without acknowledging Russian electoral interference.
On China, the Administration has been walking on eggshells, since it needs Beijing’s cooperation both on North Korea and on trade. There is little to no sign of a serious strategy to contain or compete with China (in anything but trade). China continues its buildup of military bases in the South China Sea, where it has also escalated its challenges to US naval vessels.
The North Korea talks are at a standstill after the failure in February of the second Kim/Trump summit in Vietnam. Trump is demanding immediate denuclearization in one step while the Pyongyang has maintained its vague commitment to a phased process whose endpoint is unclear. All those promises of Trump-like hotels are not going to convince Kim Jong-un that he should abandon his regime’s only real guarantee: its nuclear arsenal and ballistic missiles.
Venezuela is grinding to a stalemate, with the Russians deploying troops there and no sign of the military defections required to seat President Guaido’ in President Maduro’s chair. A US military intervention would have to be massive and long-term. Nothing short of that seems to be working. Venezuelans are voting with their feet by leaving the country, but that does not help bring down Maduro.
Sanctions on Iran have so far had little visible impact, other than giving the Europeans an incentive to find a way to continue to expand trade with Tehran. China and Russia will also find the ways and means. The Iranian economy is a mess, not only because of sanctions. The Administration hopes to compel the Iranians back to the negotiating table or to precipitate regime change. Neither outcome is visible on the horizon. In the meanwhile, hardliners have gained strength and continue to pursue regional interventions.
Support for allies and partners is a lot easier than dealing with adversaries, but the Trump Administration has been selective about it. The ultranationalists who govern Hungary and Poland and the Brexiteers in the UK get Trump’s blessing. France, Germany and the European Union get kicked hard. Israel gets endorsement of whatever it wants (so far, recognition of Jerusalem as its capital and of the annexation of the Golan Heights, not to mention a green light for killing Gaza demonstrators), leaving crumbs for the Palestinians. Saudi Arabia gets American top cover for Mohammed bin Salman against charges that he was implicated in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.
To add insult to injury, Pompeo said this about the State Department, whose budget the President has proposed to cut back by 23%:
And I take it as a personal mission to make sure that our world-class diplomatic personnel have the resources they need to execute America’s diplomacy in the 21st century.
Trump’s cuts target especially the State Department’s cooperation with the military in stabilizing conflict situations like Syria and Afghanistan, which is a required prelude to the withdrawals he has rashly announced.
I suppose I need to give Pompeo an incomplete rather than an F, since it is possible the next 22 months will provide better results than the last 26. Real diplomacy does take time. But there is precious little sign of real diplomacy on the priorities Pompeo identifies.
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The world is watching
I received this letter last week from Kosovo Assembly members Xhelal Sveçla and Driton Selmanaj. I’m pleased to take up their suggestion that I make this case more widely known as the one year anniversary of the events investigated approaches on Friday. I hasten to add that Kosovo is a young democracy that deserves credit for this investigation as well as any steps it takes to correct the issues revealed. I also hasten to add that I know little more about this case than I have read in the attached documents. Anyone who would like to exercise the privilege of a reply should let me know.
We write to you in our capacity as Chair and Vice-Chair of the Parliamentary Investigative Committee established last year to elucidate the matter of the expulsion of six Turkish nationals from the territory of the Republic of Kosovo on 29 March 2018.
We would like to let you know that the committee has completed its work. We have uncovered a total of 31 legal violations during the whole course of the expulsion process, a number of them committed by high-ranking state officials of the Republic of Kosovo.
The details of the committee’s work are summarized in the following four documents:
- A list of the 26 witnesses interviewed by the committee;
- A brief timeline of events relating to the expulsion;
- A detailed report with recommendations prepared by a US human rights expert, engaged by the committee for the purpose of fact-finding and legal evaluation of the case;
- A list of the 31 legal violations uncovered by the committee, indexed to the report.
This is the first time in the Republic of Kosovo’s brief history that a parliamentary committee has thoroughly investigated allegations of serious human rights abuses. We have now submitted all of the above materials to the Special Prosecution of the Republic of Kosovo for further investigation, focused on possible crimes committed during the expulsion process.
However, due to the culture of impunity that still plagues Kosovo institutions, we do not believe that state prosecutors will conduct a meaningful investigation and bring high-ranking perpetrators to justice without significant international support. Indeed, it is in large part due to the international concern surrounding this case that the Assembly agreed to establish our committee in the first place.
Surely, even more international encouragement will be required to ensure both that the prosecutors handling the case conduct a thorough criminal investigation, and that the Assembly institute the necessary legislative safeguards to prevent similar human rights violations from ever happening again. Putting these safeguards into place has become even more urgent in recent days, given that Turkey continues to insist that last year’s expulsions were completely legal; and according to recent reports, Turkish authorities are already laying the groundwork for a second round of expulsions.
The Embassies of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany in Prishtina have already released statements in support of the committee’s work (see the U.S. Embassy’s statement).
In conclusion, we firmly believe that the expulsion of the six Turkish nationals would not have happened if state officials knew that the world was watching. And we just as firmly believe that, in order to bring this case to a successful conclusion, it is absolutely essential that the Special Prosecution Office and the Assembly of the Republic of Kosovo be made aware that the world is still watching — and waiting for them to fulfill their legal and institutional responsibilities to the fullest extent possible.
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