Peace Picks April 22-26

1.The evolution of U.S. trade strategy: causes and consequences for Asia| Tuesday, April 23, 2019 | 11:45 am – 3:15pm| The Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20004-3027|Register here|

The Trump administration has taken U.S. foreign economic policy in directions not seen since the establishment of the postwar liberal regime for international trade.  The US has been unprecedentedly critical of the WTO, sought to replace NAFTA with a new US-Mexico-Canada agreement, and cast the EU as a foe in trade relations while halting progress on the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. But the most significant trade moves have targeted China and focused on the Asia-Pacific: opting out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, criticizing Chinese policies and practices as unfair on issues ranging across market access, currency manipulation, coerced or illicit intellectual property transfers, industrial policy, import duties, government subsidies, and Chinese firms’ violations of US sanctions on third countries.  Initial rounds of tariffs from both sides and threats to escalate portended a possible full-blown US-China trade war as negotiations failed to move expeditiously toward a mutually acceptable deal.

The TPP has moved forward without the US, as the CPTPP with Japan in the leading role. The China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is emerging, with overlapping membership and less demanding rules. China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may further change the regional economic and institutional landscape.  Alongside its more confrontational stance on trade, the US has pressed for a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” What have been, and are likely to be, the regional impacts of recent US policy? What are the prospects for multilateral cooperation in the region?  Is the current US approach, associated with President Trump but with some roots in earlier periods, likely to change and, if so, with what effects? Join us for a discussion on the challenges ahead in dealing with the new trade realities and what it means for U.S. relations with Asia in particular.

AGENDA

11:45
Registration and lunch
12:10
Introduction and opening remarks
12:15-1:45
Panel I: Regional impact of the “trade war”
 
David Dollar, Senior Fellow, John L Thornton China Center, Brookings
 
Meg Lundsager, Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center
 
Michael Pillsbury, Senior Fellow and Director for Chinese Strategy, Hudson Institute
 
Bradford Ward, Partner, King and Spalding
 
Jacques DeLisle, Director, Center for East Asian Studies and Stephen A Cozen Professor of Law, University of Pennsylvania Law School (moderator)
1:45-2:00
coffee break
2:00-3:15
Panel 2: Trade realities and prospects for cooperation
 
Taeho Bark, Professor Emeritus, Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University
 
Jacob Schlesinger, Senior Correspondent, Wall Street Journal Washington Bureau
 
Wayne Morrison, Specialist in Asian Trade and FInance, Congressional Research Service
 
Shihoko Goto, Deputy Director for Geoeconomics, Asia Program, Wilson Center (moderator)

2. Ukraine´s post-election landscape| Friday, April 26, 2019| 10:00 am – 11:30pm| Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036-2103|Register here|

Join Carnegie for a timely conversation about the impact of the Ukrainian presidential elections on the country’s politics and society. April 26 also marks the thirty-third anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, an event which played a central role in the formation of Ukrainian national identity, a topic that once again is at the forefront of the country’s extremely dynamic domestic politics.

Serhill Plokhll, Maykhailo S. Hrushevs’kyi, professor of Ukrainian history and director of the Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard University

Matthew Kaminski, global editor of POLITICO and the founding editor of POLITICO’s European edition.

Balázs Jarábik, nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Andrew S. Weiss, James Family chair and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

2. A New Approach to Preventing Extremism in Fragile States| Friday, April 26, 2019 | 10:00 am – 11:30pm| United States Institute of Peace | 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 |Register here|

Congress charged the U.S. Institute of Peace, an independent, bipartisan leader in reducing and preventing conflict, with convening The Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States. The Task Force has developed a proposal for a new cost-effective, evidence-based, and coordinated preventive approach. Modest U.S. investments—if they are strategic, coordinated, well-timed, and sustained—can empower communities over time to better resist extremism on their own and motivate international donors to support this cause. Join us as we wrestle with the challenge of supporting fragile states to build resiliency, sustain progress and prevent future threats and instability.

Agenda
9:30am – 10:30am – Recommendations of the Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States

Secretary Madeleine Albright, Chair, Albright Stonebridge Group

Stephen Hadley, Chair of the Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace 

Governor Tom Kean, Co-Chair, Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States

Nancy Lindborg, President, U.S. Institute of Peace

Michael Singh, Lane-Swig Senior Fellow and Managing Director, The Washington Institute

David Ignatius, moderator, Columnist and Author, The Washington Post

10:30am – 11:30am – Prioritizing Prevention Across the United States Government

Chris Milligan, Counselor, The U.S. Agency for International Development

Lieutenant General Michael Nagata, Director for Strategic Operational Planning, National Counterterrorism Center

Alina Romanowski, Principal Deputy Coordinator for Counterterrorism, U.S. Department of State

11:30am – 11:45am – Coffee Break

11:45am – 12:45pm – International Prevention Efforts

Ambassador Diane Corner, Counsellor of Foreign and Security Policy, British Embassy in Washington, D.C.

Ambassador Martin Dahinden, Ambassador of Switzerland to the United States of America

Habib Mayar, Deputy General Secretary of the g7+

Ulrika Modéer, UN Assistant Secretary-General and Director of UNDP’s Bureau for External Relations and Advocacy

Sam Worthington, President and CEO, InterAction

Raj Kumar, moderator, Founding President and Editor-in-Chief, Devex

3. Blind Spots: America and the Palestinians, From Balfour to Trump| Wednesday, April 24, 2019 | 9:30 am – 11:00pm| Brooking Institute | 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 |Register here|.

In an exciting new book, “Blind Spot: America and the Palestinians, From Balfour to Trump,” Brookings Nonresident Fellow Khaled Elgindy takes a historical view of America’s engagement with the Palestinians and Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. He argues that while the United States has often presented itself as an honest broker and the one power best suited to mediate peace between Israelis and Palestinians, Washington’s ability to serve as an effective peace broker has been hampered by a “blind spot” in two critical areas: Israeli power and Palestinian politics. The Trump administration’s policies, such as moving the American embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, are only the most extreme manifestations of this age-old, American blind spot, Elgindy writes.

Agenda

Daniel L. Byman, Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
 

4. The Future of Afghanistan: Ongoing Negotiations and the Role of Regional Allies| Monday, April 22,2019 | 11:00 am | The Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St NW, Washington, DC 20005|Register here|
 
The Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center is pleased to invite you to “The Future of Afghanistan: Ongoing Negotiations and the Role of Regional Partners,” a panel discussion on the progress of ongoing negotiations between the United States and the Taliban, and the role of regional partners.

The status of a future peace settlement between the Afghan government and the Taliban remains uncertain, even as negotiations with the United States move forward. The role of US partners, including coalition allies, Pakistan and India will heavily influence the shape and success of any future political resolution in Afghanistan. This panel discussion will explore the contours of these relationships and the potential roles regional partners may play in supporting, or undermining, an eventual Afghan peace process. 

Agenda
Moderated by:

Fatemeh Aman, Nonresident Senior Fellow, South Asia Center, Atlantic Council

A conversation with:

Daud Khattak, Senior Editor, Radio Mashaal, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Ambassador Omar Samad, Nonresident Senior Fellow, South Asia Center, Atlantic Council

Michael Kugelman, Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia, Wilson Center

5. Turning up the Heat: U.S. Designates Iran’s Revolutionary Guard a Terrorist Organization| Wednesday, April 24, 2019 | 11:45 am – 1:30pm| Hudson Institute | 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 400 Washington, DC 20004|Register here|

Hudson Institute will host a panel to discuss the implications of the State Department’s recent designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as foreign terrorist organization (FTO). Panelists will include FDD Senior Fellow Behnam Ben Taleblu; Atlantic Council nonresident Senior Fellow Nader Uskowi; the New Iran’s Alireza Nader; and Hudson Senior Fellow Michael Pregent. The BBC’s Suzanne Kianpour will moderate the discussion.

On April 15, the U.S. formally designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as an FTO. The designation groups the IRGC with terrorist organizations like ISIS and al Qaeda, and marks the first time a government entity has been added to the list. The U.S. hopes that given the group’s significant political and economic influence, the designation will ratchet up pressure on Iran and blunt the country’s primary instrument of state-sponsored terrorism. Will international allies and partners abide by the U.S. designation? Will Iran fold to this newfound pressure, or will it end up being more resilient than the U.S. perceives?

Speakers
Suzanne Kianpour Moderator, Foreign Affairs and Political Journalist, BBC

Mike Pregent, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute,

Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Nader Uskowi, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council

Alireza Nader, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, New Iran