peacefare.net

Venezuela is no Grenada

One thing seems clear: it’s not over yet in Venezuela. The Americans appear to have anticipated that the military would break with Nicolás Maduro and support Juan Guaidó’s claim to the presidency. That didn’t happen yesterday, when it was supposed to. Nor did Maduro leave the country, as Secretary of State Pompeo thought he would. John Bolton this morning is claiming that Maduro surrounded “by scorpions in a bottle,” but they haven’t bitten yet.

In the meanwhile, yesterday’s demonstrations departed at least in part from non-violence. This is both comprehensible and mistaken. Comprehensible because the police, army, and paramilitaries used violence against the demonstrators. Responding in self-defense is certainly justifiable. But it is also mistaken because violence will limit the number of people who take to the street today and also make it more difficult for the security forces to come over to the side of the demonstrators. If attacked, they will defend themselves.

The Trump Administration meanwhile is still threatening a military intervention as well as sanctions against Cuba for its support of Maduro. A military intervention would be nuts. There are no signs of preparation for it. Venezuela is a country of about 30 million people even after a couple of million have fled. A significant percentage of those are loyal to Maduro, in addition to at least part of the 2.8-million man army. Even in its current dilapidated state, that army would not welcome the US Marines with open arms. The Cubans and Russians would also be a problem. Venezuela is no Grenada, which wasn’t entirely a picnic.

A coup is of course still possible, but that won’t solve Caracas’ problems. The Venezuelan army leadership is deeply corrupted, including with drug trafficking and other organized crime activities. Armies don’t seize power in order to hand it to civilian leaders, but rather to protect themselves. A chat with Egypt’s President Sisi should be enough to convince anyone of that. The Americans will figure military rule is better than Maduro, but
Guaidó should be thinking twice before collaborating in a military takeover. He needs to the military to support him, not to seize power for itself.

The next 48 hours or so may be decisive. If Maduro can survive for that long, he has a chance of re-consolidating power. If he trembles even slightly, he could end up history. He has far more at stake than the Americans, which means he is likely to hold on tight, using brutal force if need be to show his determination. But the army has a lot at stake too. As in Algeria and Sudan, there are really three contenders for power, not just two. And Guaidó doesn’t look like the strongest of them today.