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Trump is a racist.

I’ve discovered to my dismay that people I like and respect think President Trump is not a white supremacist or racist. They also think that calling him those things will hurt prospects for defeating him in 2020. I disagree on both counts.

First on the substance. The evidence for Trump’s racist or bigoted views–call them whichever you prefer–is overwhelming. From discrimination against black renters in the 1970s to his invitation to four non-white members of Congress to go home to his recent superficially coded criticism of Congressman Elijah Cummings, Trump has been consistent in heaping insult and injury on black and brown cities, countries, immigrants, and people, especially if they are Muslim or poor. Trump saves his sympathies and for neo-Nazis. His occasional but bizarre meeting with Kanye West or advocacy for A$AP Rocky should fool no one.

More relevant to whether his bigotry should be labelled as white supremacy is what Americans think. White supremacists recognize him as one of their own and support him strongly. His rhetoric is well within their venerable tradition. Black people and Hispanics also recognize him as a racist, as do more than 50% of Americans overall. I’m not sure how you can be a racist and not a white supremacist, even if racists have often claimed that all they are doing is advocating for equality. We know how separate but equal worked out.

Convinced Trumpistas deny he is a white supremacist or racist and claim they aren’t either. They just want to protect their America from an invasion and restore the country to its supposedly more tranquil (and segregated) past. They are frightened of places like Baltimore, where blacks are in the majority, and El Paso, where Hispanics are. They denounce Sharia law and despise Muslims. They want to ensure that their own offspring are not discriminated against; rarely do they speak up for other peoples’ children.

These are all well-worn racist tropes. They don’t fool me and they shouldn’t fool my friends. People who hold these views are going to vote for Trump, no matter what. They feel they lost a great deal under a black president, they still claim he is really a Muslim, and they want their white privilege defended and preserved. Trump gives them every reason to believe he will do his utmost in that direction. His is no dog whistle; it is a siren.

The key to winning in 2020 for the Democrats is not converting convinced Trumpistas but turning out their own supporters (including especially blacks and Hispanics) and convincing independents who are uncomfortable with Trump to join their fold. Revulsion against Trump’s racist and white supremacist views and support will play a vital role in both. You can’t generate that revulsion without calling racism racism. It bothers him to be called a racist; that is as good a guide as any I know of what to call him, provided it fits with the facts. It does.

Stevenson’s army, August 12

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes an almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, follow the instructions below:

I wanted to share some points from a book on Franklin Roosevelt’s presidency that I read recently.Franklin D. Roosevelt was exceptional in many ways, but a new book by a Stony Brook professor demonstrates his amazing popularity. Helmut Norpoth’s Unsurpassed: The Popular Appeal of Franklin Roosevelt (Oxford U. Press, 2018) draws upon little-studied opinion surveys from 1937-45 and beyond to make these points:

• FDR’s approval rating his 70% in January, 1941 and stayed there or higher for the rest of his presidency. [One slight dip to 67% in November 1943.]
• His push for large defense budgets after 1938 not only slashed unemployment rates but also boosted his own approval ratings. [Throughout the book, Norpoth argues that FDR’s foreign policies helped increase his political support.]
• The turning point, when American opinion shifted from avoiding war to supporting Britain even at the risk of war, came in the summer of 1940 after the fall of France. [At the same time, opinion jumped from opposing a third term to supporting the idea.]
• Unlike postwar presidents, FDR saw no loss of support as the casualties and costs of the war mounted.
• The point when public opinion first concluded that America would win the war — jumping from 45% to 80% — came just after the landings in North Africa in November, 1942. The numbers stayed that high or higher for the rest of the war. [This outcome underscores why FDR pushed so hard, but unsuccessfully, for the operation to begin before the 1942 congressional elections, when Democrats suffered substantial losses.]
• Being commander-in-chief probably tipped the balance for FDR in both 1940 and 1944. Surveys at the time showed the GOP candidates winning if there were no war.
• Soldiers voted for FDR in 1944 in large numbers [estimated at least 62%] and stayed Democrats long afterward. [Lincoln got 77% of Union soldiers’ votes in 1864.]

My own research convinced me that FDR followed the polls closely and pushed things to the limits, especially in 1940-41, when he felt public opinion would be supportive. Norpoth also links his fireside chats as important devices to boost and sustain public approval of his policies. The evidence in the book lives up to its title.

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