Day: August 13, 2019
Trump greenlights repression
President Trump yesterday tweeted that the Chinese government is assembling forces for a possible crackdown on protesters in Hong Kong:
Our Intelligence has informed us that the Chinese Government is moving troops to the Border with Hong Kong. Everyone should be calm and safe!
While he said “our intelligence” reported this, the videos of Chinese forces are all over the internet, including some released by Beijing. Frightening protesters out of the street is easier than chasing them out.
Compare Trump’s statement with Senate Majority Leader McConnell’s (no friend of mine):
Any violent crackdown would be completely unacceptable. … The world is watching.
Trump’s relatively neutral hope that everyone will be calm and safe is a green light to Beijing that they can crack down, albeit one with plausible deniability for Trump. If they do crackdown and things go badly, Trump can say he didn’t encourage them. In the meanwhile, he gets credit in Beijing for the soft tone.
Trump will also be applauded in Beijing for backing down on some of the tariffs he had promised to impose in September on consumer goods from China. There was a real risk that they would signal to Americans the truth: consumers pay tariffs, not the exporting countries. That on top of the collapse of US agricultural exports to China threatened to generate real domestic resistance to a tariff war that Beijing is clearly winning. The Chinese have much more effective ways of protecting the government from domestic dissent than Trump does.
Not that the Chinese aren’t hurting. They have let their currency float downwards for good reasons: they need to maintain their exports and try to counter their slowing growth, which is slumping towards 6%. That’s fast compared to the US, but not necessarily fast enough to keep a lid on discontent. Of course the Chinese will eventually have to face the recession that is inevitable in any capitalist economy, but they will want to put it off as long as possible for fear of the social consequences.
That fear is what makes Beijing so anxious and stubborn about the Hong Kong protests. The protesters are demanding:
- Complete withdrawal of the extradition bill
- Withdrawal of the “riot” description used about the 12 June protests
- Amnesty for all arrested protesters
- An independent inquiry into alleged police brutality
- Universal suffrage for the Chief Executive and Legislative Council elections
Essentially the protesters are asking for electoral democracy, accountability, amnesty, and an independent judicial system. If Beijing concedes those things to Hong Kong, what is to stop mainland Chinese from demanding the same?
The short answer is the People’s Liberation Army. No doubt some in Beijing are arguing that it will be easier to stop the protests in Hong Kong than if they spread.
The hardliners have a friend in the White House. The man has no convictions. Everything is transactional. He doesn’t hesitate to sell American values for a bowl of Chinese porridge.
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Stevenson’s army, August 13
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes an almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, follow the instructions below:
– I’m mildly persuaded by this piece arguing that Boris Johnson’s game plan is to win an election, and that’s more important than Brexit.
– Jeffrey Lewis discusses what the failed Russian test with nuclear release might mean.
– NYT says Afghan army is in sad shape.
– Why did Trump delay Chinese tariffs today? Vox suggests retail pressures; I’d add the sinking stock market.
Or maybe these polls.
– Former Senate Leader Harry Reid calls for an end to the legislative filibuster. WRONG. WRONG. BAD!
– Interesting Dutch report on Russian cyber threats.
To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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