Trump caves on Iran

President Trump has apparently agreed in principle to a meeting with Iran’s President Rouhani. Best bet is that this might occur at the United Nations in September or October. The big question is what the conditions are: has Trump offered sanctions relief and has Rouhani agreed to talk about the detailed provisions of the nuclear deal, Iran’s missiles, or Iran’s behavior in the region? The answer to the former is clearly yes; the answer to the latter is that there is no evidence Rouhani has agreed to discuss any of these matters. Trump has caved.

It has been clear for some time that Trump was begging for a meeting with the Iranians, who have resisted unless promised sanctions relief. He now says he wants a discussion of missiles as well as extension of the nuclear deal (aka the sunset clauses). He has made it explicitly clear that Iran can hope for economic relief and that he is not looking for regime in Tehran. Both are major concessions. The latter, a no regime change pledge, was a prelude to President Obama’s negotiations with the Iranians and one that will displease many in the Trump Administration, especially National Security Advisor Bolton.

If the sunset clauses of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) were the major issue, it would have been much wiser to stay in the agreement than to renege on it. Missiles were never part of the JCPOA. There was no reason to withdraw from it on that basis. Trump is essentially retreating from the more extreme positions held in the Administration, which regard the JCPOA as fundamentally flawed (and therefore extension would not be desirable) and the Iranian regime as an illegitimate one that should be replaced before any further negotiations.

Trump did not mention Iran’s regional behavior. This could of course have been an unintentional omission. Surely the Israelis, the regional Sunni powers, and America’s Iran hawks will be unhappy about it. On the merits it is the most important issue right now. Iran is actively involved in arming and training militia forces in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. This is not an issue that should be ignored, though once again: the US would have been better off had we raised the issue while still a party to the JCPOA.

Only time will tell whether the meeting with Rouhani will actually come off, but President Trump is clearly ready and willing, despite Iran’s regional behavior and Israeli resistance to the JCPOA. He has decided to cut and run. But he is erratic, vulnerable to pressure, and may change his mind.