Month: August 2019
Peace Picks | August 5 – 9
How to Talk About People Disengaging from Violent Extremism – The Power of Strategic Language | August 06, 2019 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | U.S. Institute of Peace | 2301 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here
Around the world, many countries face a challenging security question: what to do with citizens who have joined violent extremist groups. While many face criminal trial, thousands who traveled to live with ISIS will have to reintegrate into their communities, meaning rehabilitation must play a central role in any realistic security approach. Based on experience and research, this rehabilitation is possible through a two-way “re-humanization” effort. Yet we currently lack the language in public discourse to talk about those disengaging from violent extremism without reinforcing stigmas that hinder reconciliation.
It is critical for returning persons and community members to again see and treat each other as people with whom they share a basic human nature. Prosocial engagement between returning persons and community members and institutions is key to that effort. However, public discourse insists on using language steeped in fear and anger: the returning persons are “terrorists,” “jihadists,” “ISIS brides,” or “fighters.” The stigma this language produces is a self-fulfilling prophecy—it impedes empathy, erects barriers to prosocial engagement, and perpetuates the isolation and dehumanization that often fuels violent radicalization in the first place.
Speakers:
Dr. Arie Kruglanski, Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland- Shannon Foley Martinez, Consultant for the prevention and disruption of targeted identity violence
Dr. Hollie Nyseth-Brehm, Associate Professor of Sociology, The Ohio State UniversityDr. Paul Thibodeau, Assistant Professor of Psychology, Oberlin College and Conservatory
Moderator:
- Leanne Erdberg, Director, Countering Violent Extremism, U.S. Institute of Peac
Contemporary India: Foreign Policy, Development Strategy, and Regional Priorities for Modi 2.0 | August 06, 2019 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | The Heritage Foundation | Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington, DC 20002 | Register Here
Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s foreign policy and engagement with the world has acquired new energy and dynamism. Following India’s historic elections this spring, Modi’s second term will continue to focus on creating an enabling environment for India’s growth and development, while pursuing security and growth for all in India’s neighborhood and beyond. To discuss the Modi government’s foreign policy imperatives, and particularly India’s priorities in its regional engagements, India’s Ambassador to the U.S., His Excellency Harsh Vardhan Shringla will join Heritage Foundation South Asia scholar Jeff M. Smith for a wide-ranging conversation.
Speakers:
- H.E. Harsh Vardhan Shringla, Ambassador of India to the United States
- Jeff M. Smith, Research Fellow, South Asia, Heritage Foundation Asian Studies Center
A View from Iraq: A Conversation with Iraqi MP Sarkawt Shamsulddin | August 06, 2019 | 12:00 PM | The Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here
With a new Kurdistan Regional Government in place, the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative invites you to join us for a conversation with Iraqi Council of Representatives Member Sarkawt Shamsulddin to hear a view from Iraq. In 2018, Shamsulddin became the youngest member of the Iraqi parliament, securing the top position of the New Generation Movement in Sulaymaniyah Province. He is now one of the leaders of The Future parliamentary bloc and a member of the Iraqi-American Friendship Committee.
The discussion topics will include how Iraq views the tensions between the United States and Iran, how the new Kurdistan Regional Government cabinet is re-setting relations with Baghdad, and what can be done to promote reforms, counter corruption, and build bridges between civil society organizations in Baghdad in Erbil.
Speakers:
- Mr. Sarkawt Shamsulddin, Member, Council of Representative of Iraq
Moderator:
Dr. Abbas Kadhim, Senior Fellow and Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
The Japanese-South Korean Trade Dispute: Ramifications and the Path Forward | August 07, 2019 | 1:30 PM – 4:30 PM | The Heritage Foundation |
Japan and South Korea have recently imposed rulings that impact each other’s financial interests and risk triggering a strategic trade war. During previous spikes in tensions, bilateral economic and security sectors were not involved and instead served as moderating influences. That changed for the worse last year. Strained bilateral economic relations undermine U.S. allied diplomatic and security coordination to deal with the North Korean threat. What role should Washington play in resolving disputes between two critically important Asian allies?
Speakers:
Panel I – Competing Views and Economic Considerations (1:30 – 3:00 p.m.)
- Scott Snyder, Senior Fellow for Korea Studies and Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy, Council on Foreign Relations
- Yuki Tatsumi, Senior Fellow and Co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the Japan Program, The Stimson Center
- Riley Walters, Policy Analyst for Asia Economy and Technology, The Heritage Foundation
Panel II – Implications for Economics, Security, and U.S. Strategic Objectives (3:00 – 4:30 p.m.)
- Matthew Goodman, Senior Vice President, Senior Adviser for Asian Economics, and the Simon Chair in Political Economy, Center for Strategic and International Studies
- James Schoff, Senior Fellow, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific Security Chair, The Hudson Institute
Hosted by:
- Bruce Klingner, Senior Research Fellow for Northeast Asia, The Heritage Foundation
Building Bridges? Development and Infrastructure in U.S.-China Relations | August 08, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM | CSIS Headquarters, 2nd Floor | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Amid escalating U.S.-China tensions, Washington and Beijing are focused on managing their differences on bilateral trade. At the same time, both countries have a major stake in the functioning of the global economic order—the institutions, rules, and norms that shape international economic affairs. Even as they address bilateral issues, it is also important for the two sides to confront strains in the global order.
During this event, U.S. and Chinese experts will discuss an important set of issues in the global economic order: infrastructure and development finance. They will explore where the two sides may be able to cooperate and where they need to manage their differences. The event will roll out a collection of essays written in parallel by U.S. and Chinese scholars on trade, finance, technology, and other key issues in the global economic order. This essay series is the culmination of a multi-year effort to promote U.S.-China dialogue funded by Carnegie Corporation of New York.
Speakers:
- Nancy Lee, Senior Policy Fellow, Center for Global Development
- Peter Raymond, Senior Associate (Non-resident), Reconnecting Asia Project and Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS; Former Advisory Leader, Capital Projects and Infrastructure, PwC
- Stephanie Segal, Senior Fellow, Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS
- Ye Yu, Associate Research Fellow & Assistant Director, Institute for World Economy Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS)
Moderator:
- Matthew P. Goodman, Senior Vice President and Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS
Confrontation in the Gulf: Unpacking Recent Escalations and the Prospects of US-Iran Talks | August 08, 2019 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Arab Center Washington DC | National Press Club, Holeman Lounge, 529 14th St., NW Washington, DC 20045 | Register Here
Tensions in the Persian Gulf threaten to escalate as regional and international actors look to improve their strategic standing at the expense of their adversaries. The last few weeks witnessed a number of attacks on oil tankers and platforms, seizures of ships operating in the Gulf and traversing the Strait of Hormuz, and the mutual downing of American and Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles. Left unaddressed, these actions ratchet up tensions and could quickly lead to a conflagration that would devastate all states in the region and disrupt the free flow of hydrocarbon supplies to the international economy. Over the last few months, many efforts have been made to find a compromise that could help address the sources of tension and spare the strategic area the outcomes of a confrontation, including calls and statements by regional and international actors as well as by the United States and Iran. Despite attempts at de-escalation, the stalemate persists and talks have not taken place.
Join Arab Center Washington DC to discuss the recent escalation of hostilities in the region, the economic, political, humanitarian, and strategic risks of a potential military conflagration, the possibility for negotiations and the measures needed to advance talks between Iran and the Trump Administration, and the impact of the current stalemate and policy responses from the actors involved.
Speakers:
- Shireen Hunter, University Associate, Georgetown University
- Kenneth Katzman, Middle East Specialist, Congressional Research Service
- Assal Rad, Research Fellow, National Iranian American Council
- Barbara Slavin, Director and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
Moderator:
- Daniel Brumberg, Associate Professor and Director, Democracy and Governance Studies, Georgetown University, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
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Stevenson’s army, August 4
My SAIS colleague, Charlie Stevenson, distributes an almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. This is a third tasting. If you want to get it directly, follow the instructions below:
– As most of you know, the Senate Majority Leader can control
whatever amendments are offered to any measure by “filling the amendment
tree” and yielding only for amendments he approves. That has reached
such an extent under Leader McConnell that NYT has a front page story noting:
The number of Senate roll call votes on amendments — a key indicator of
whether lawmakers are engaged in free and open debate — plummeted to
only 18 this year, according to a review of congressional data. During
the same time period in the 10 previous Congresses, senators took
anywhere from 34 to 231 amendment votes.
The figures come from a report by the Bipartisan Policy Center. Here is the full report.
– RollCall notes how both parties are targeting state legislative races in order to be in stronger positions to gerrymander after the 2020 census.
-WSJ has more details on the Oval Office meeting where most of Trump’s advisers spoke against the latest tariffs on China.
– Robin Wright of the New Yorker reports that the president had approved an invitation to a personal meeting with the Iranian foreign minister only a few days before deciding to personally sanction him.
To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 3
My SAIS colleague, Charlie Stevenson, distributes an almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. This is a second tasting. If you want to get it directly, follow the instructions below:
Interagency conflicts are a normal part of the policy process. Officials and agencies have different perspectives on problems and often different views on solutions. Yesterday I noted WSJ report of the conflict over trade policy. Today, NYT has THREE stories about other policy fights.
– The US military sees ISIS as a bigger threat in Afghanistan than does the intelligence community, assessing double the number of ISIS fighters as does the community.
-SecState Pompeo opposed the recent agreement with Guatemala, but the DHS acting secretary won the fight.
– Pompeo has fired the head of policy planning, apparently for management problems, but who knows.
– A trade prof argues that Lighthizer’s trade strategy has been proved a failure.
– BTW, the trade war with China has led to a drop to only 3rd US trade partner.
– Cong. Ratcliffe’s removal as DNI designee led the president to justify his poor vetting policy in an unusual way:
“I give out a name to the press and they vet for me. We save a lot of money that way,” Trump said.The president also seems to take China’s side on Hong Kong, calling the protests “riots” that China should deal with.
To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 2
My SAIS colleague, Charlie Stevenson, distributes an almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. This is a first tasting. If you want to get it directly, follow the instructions below:
WSJ [alone among the media I see] reports that none of the president’s economic advisers except Peter Navarro supported the new 10% tariffs on Chinese imports.
WaPo has more on the planned reductions in US troops in Afghanistan.
WSJ reports Israel launched two air attacks inside Iraq.
New Republic says swing states get special favors in Congress, like ethanol for Iowa and coal for Pennsylvania.
In my assessment, Lindsey Graham has a lot of pluses and minuses, but this week’s gross abuse of Judiciary Committee rules and norms is a big minus.
[I’m not sure if you can open this, but CFR has a good set of articles on cyber issues.]
To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Kosovo’s contradictions
I’ve been slow to write about my stay week before last in Pristina, where I was teaching at the American University of Kosovo and talking with both old friends and new. Caveat emptor: they are overwhelmingly middle class folks in or near Pristina who are doing much better than average.
My impressions are contradictory. Here are some of the them:
- Pristina is a far more cheerful place than once it was, but the complaints are loud and long.
No one seems to think the city is improving, but the improvements are dramatic: the Mother Teresa Boulevard pedestrian zone is crowded day and night, mainly with young people and children. The restaurants and cafes have multiplied many times over the past twenty years. The cafes are jammed, the restaurants less so. New hotels are popping up here and there, including a Marriott on its way. The CityInn and its restaurant, where we stayed, were first-rate. Traffic often moves slowly, but Kosovar drivers are remarkably indulgent of pedestrians, at least those who cross on the zebra stripes, and respectful of the traffic signals. Neither honking nor screeching brakes are common. The airport, a chaotic nightmare for years after the war, is a model of order and decorum both arriving and departing.
2. The country is overwhelmingly Muslim, but few women “cover” and few men go to mosque.
Some Kosovars are undoubtedly more religious than once they were, especially in the countryside. It would be surprising if the end of Communist and Serbian repression of Islam did not lead to more overt signs of religiosity. Perhaps one in a hundred women on the street in Pristina covers her hair, many still wearing tight jeans. Far fewer wear burqas. The Saudis and especially the Turks have been paying to rehabilitate mosques, and one person, horrified, showed me a photograph of a couple of dozen men blocking a (small) street during Friday prayers. Young people out for the evening circulate mostly in single-gender groups, not mixed male and female. Still, Riyadh and Ankara must be disappointed in the returns on their religious investments, at least in Pristina.
3. Many people think the country is headed in the wrong direction, even if the economy is thriving relative to the rest of the Balkans.
Kosovo’s economy has grown every year since 2003, and the entrepreneurs I spoke with are pleased with how things are going, but recent NDI polling suggests a plurality of both Albanians and Serbs are disappointed. The focus of their disillusion is the government: it has failed to convince a large slice of the population that the institutions will treat them fairly, especially when it comes to jobs. Everyone complains about corruption, but somehow the same political parties and personalities keep winning elections. Patronage is part of the answer: the incumbents always seem to be able to offer employment and pensions. Corruption is a big issue for everyone I spoke with, but Kosovars tend to interpret prosecutions, which are increasing, as a sign of how bad things are rather than how the courts are beginning to do their job.
4. Kosovars got their own state, but they don’t all want to keep it.
Every time I visit Kosovo, I meet people who tell me they would give up independence and their own state for union with Albania. They hold that view despite the miserable performance of the Albanian politicians: political Tirana is far more conflictual than political Pristina. Governance there is pretty bad. But for some people ethnic solidarity is more important. “We are the same people” they declare, despite the history of differences. Albania during the Cold War was an isolated and absolute dictatorship allied with Communist China while Kosovo enjoyed relative autonomy in non-aligned Yugoslavia. The border between the two was a hard one, both politically and topographically. Kosovo’s links to Europe are mainly to Germany and Switzerland while Albania’s are more towards Italy. The Serb presence in Kosovo is also a key distinguishing characteristic. Without it, Kosovo would look much more like the eastern province of Albania than a distinct polity worthy of its own state. But you can’t expect someone who wants his capital in Tirana to worry much about that.
5. The environment is polluted, but nature is beautiful.
The big problem is air pollution. Pristina is among the worst cities in Europe to breathe in. But wherever the bulldozers have not yet arrived, the natural environment is appealing and sometimes spectacular. We drove from sleepy Dragas north through bustling Djakovica/Djakova to Decan/Decani, where the Serb monastery and church look out towards the mountainous route to Montenegro. I’ve been into the mountains around the Brezovica area as well. Very nice. We unfortunately didn’t make it to the Rugova Valley, which I gather is also attractive. Just outside Pristina is the huge Germia park, with its gargantuan swimming pool, and even the parks inside the city are improving.
6. The place is peaceful, but not reconciled.
One Kosovo politician told me Albanians and Serbs are no longer prepared to kill each other, almost no matter what. The fever has passed, he suggested. But there are still resentments and distrust. Little has been done to reconcile: Serbia has not apologized for its homicidal repression and Kosovars are still treating all their fighters as heroes, even though they are aware that some killed innocent Albanians and Serbs, including after the war. The peace is personal more than political. While I understand domestic violence is a serious problem in Kosovo, during a week of walking many miles in its streets and parks, I never heard a voice raised in anger, even addressed to a recalcitrant child. At least in public, where evereyone seems to know everyone else’s cousin, Kosovars seem determined to keep the peace.
7. It’s stable, even if the Prime Minister had to go to The Hague.
Called to face the Special Tribunal at The Hague charged with investigating crimes in Kosovo, Prime Minister Haradinaj resigned, a couple of days after he and I had a chat about the dialogue with Belgrade and the tariffs he had imposed on Serbian goods, in retaliation for Serbia’s successful campaign against acceptance of Kosovo in international organizations (most notably UNESCO and Interpol). His two previous war crimes indictments, by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, caused unrest in Kosovo. This time around things have been calm. Elections are expected in September or maybe October. Ramush likely believes the court’s actions will redound to his eventual political benefit, as did the previous indictments. That has been true throughout the Balkans: those pursued by the courts have been greeted by their ethnic compatriots as heroes, not villains.
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