Month: September 2019
Redemption
The British parliament yesterday refused to accept a “no deal” Brexit and instead pulled the rug out from under Prime Minister Johnson’s losing game of chicken with the EU by insisting on its prerogative of approving whatever is going to happen. It was only possible because Tory members, horrified by Johnson’s effort to “prorogue” parliament, abandoned their now fractured party, depriving Johnson of his majority.
Something analogous has happened also in Italy, where the (Northern) League’s withdrawal from a government coalition, rather than precipitating new elections and a League victory, stirred the opposition to ally with the League’s erstwhile coalition partner, the Five Star Movement. An unlikely coalition then supported continuation of the relatively “technical” prime minister originally installed with support from the League.
This is what the redemption of good sense and democratic process looks like: people so appalled by the xenophobic ethno-nationalist hogwash that passes today for “conservatism” that at least a few of those associated with it decide to go in a different direction. That was relatively easy for the Five Star Movement, which has no discernible principles other than populist appeal, but hard indeed for individual British Tories, some of whom have become independents and others of whom have joined the Liberal Democrats.
It is apparently also hard for American Republicans, who are announcing their retirements in unprecedented numbers but not joining the pro-impeachment tide that is steadily growing among the Democrats. Only a single Republican member of the House has called for impeachment. Without a few Republican senators willing to buck Donald Trump and their own party, the Democrats are stuck: they can impeach but they can’t win removal from office in the Senate. Speaker Pelosi is therefore holding back, hoping to compile all the evidence needed to win at least the Senate if not the presidency in 2020.
It is sad that Americans can expect nothing better from the Republicans in our time of need. You don’t have to look far for impeachable offenses. Any government employee who suggests that the hotel he happens to own would be a good place for a government delegation to stay would find himself ousted quickly: this is Conflict of Interest 101. But that is precisely what President Trump did for the Vice President’s visit over last weekend to Ireland, and the Vice President accepted the suggestion. This is improper and one of many “high crimes and misdmeanors,” as the Constitution puts it. But accountability will need to await a few good Republicans with the courage to abandon their now thoroughly corrupted party.
In the end though, elections should decide the fate of the Trump’s Republicans, the League, and the Johnson’s Conservatives. The Brits may be headed for the polls as early as next month. The Lib Dems are likely to do well, which won’t displease me. The Italians won’t vote until spring. Who knows what they will do with the League, which represents some of the worst racist sentiments in Italian public life. The Americans have 14 months to wait, but the economy is slowing, Trump’s defects are glaring, and the Democrats are energized. There are no guarantees, but if these three countries begin to turn against their dreadful right wings, the world will be a much safer place.
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Stevenson’s army, September 4
– NYT has long article on the US-Israeli conflict over attacking Iran.
– Politico has a neat graphic on the trade wars.
-State admits political reprisals.
– Lawmakers angry over mil con funds shifted to border wall and delays in releasing military aid to Ukraine.
My long Labor Day weekend in Atlanta made me miss a couple of other editions of Stevenson’s army, so here they are:
September 3
– NYT says North Korean missile tests show much improved capabilities, which Trump minimizes. Even SecState Pompeo said to believe DPRK is just stringing US along.
– NYT also says sharp disagreement inside administration over future CIA role in Afghanistan.
– Media have more details about US-Taliban agreement.
– Hill has long potential agenda this month.
– Xi tells Duterte that China rejects international court ruling on South China Sea.
– Iraq imposes new ROEs for US air operations.
September 1
Today marks the 80th anniversary of the start of World War II in Europe — Hitler’s attack on Poland.
It also marks a new round of US tariffs on Chinese goods. NYT has a summary of the where the trade war stands.
WaPo has an interesting story of how the Russians tried to interfere in US politics in Maryland, of all places, in 2016. It reveals their divisive playbook, which they and others are likely to use again next year.
The FT has a fascinating article on the East India Company by the author of a new book on that company. With its own private armies and taxes, bolstered by lobbyists and investors in London, the EIC was the first, but certainly not the last, private company that really functioned as a government.
And now for some reading suggestions. I like revisionist histories that force me to re-think my understanding of the past. Here are four from the past couple of years that I found especially persuasive.
World War I: I’m now persuaded that Russia shares much of the blame for the start of the Great War by its policies to dominate Turkey and by mobilization during the July 1914 crisis. After deep dives into long-hidden Russian archives, Sean McMeekin showed that even Barbara Tuchman got the sequence wrong by relying on the falsified memoirs of the Russian Foreign Minister. McMeekin’s books on Russian diplomacy and the July crisis changed my view of German war guilt, though Austria-Hungary still deserves shared blame with Russia.
FDR’s boldness: I had long admired Franklin Roosevelt’s strategic bravery in maneuvering the United States in support of Britain and against Hitler, believing that he was just ahead of public opinion, skillfully pulling it along. Lynne Olson”s Those Angry Days persuaded me that, much of the time, FDR vacillated, doing less than many of his advisors urged and hoped. He still was a great leader, just not quite as bold as I had thought.
Slave Power’s influence on foreign policy: I never thought that slavery and its perpetuation had much impact on American foreign policy until I read Matthew Karp’s eye-opening history. Karp details how the South dominated key foreign policy posts and consciously advocated policies to protect and even extend slavery in the decades before the War of the Rebellion. Defenders of slavery really had a “deep state.”
The Revolutionary War: I used to have a typical American high school student’s view of our war for independence as a story of brave patriots, toughened at Valley Forge and led by George Washington, who finally triumphed at Yorktown. Two books have changed my understanding of that conflict. One was Andrew Jackson O’Shaunessy’s study of British politics during the conflict, The Men Who Lost America. He argues that the British gave up for broader strategic reasons. Add to this Holger Hoock’s Scars of Independence, which describes the local violence on both sides and the mistreatment of Loyalists during and after the war. The good guys won, but they won dirty.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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