One more failure
I’d like to revise my judgment yesterday that the appointment of Richard Grenell as Special Presidential Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations is bizarre. It is likely worse than that, possibly even tragic. I hasten to add that I have not talked with the White House about it. There is no point: they lie too much for me to rely on anything they say.
A few things are nevertheless clear. Grenell is a John Bolton protege and far right advocate who has gone out of his way to offend his German hosts. If you wanted to make common cause with Europe in the Balkans, Grenell is the last American you would choose for the task. The Germans have made it clear they will not accept land swaps in the Balkans. Bolton was an advocate of land swaps between Kosovo and Serbia. The logic was compelling for an ethnic nationalist: Serbs want to be governed by Serbs and Albanians by Albanians. Anything else is too hard. Equal rights is liberal democratic clap trap, at home and abroad.
In addition, land swaps would kill two Clinton accomplishments with one blow: Kosovo will become the eastern province of Albania, sooner or later, and Bosnia and Herzegovina will be partitioned. Don’t worry about how many people will be displaced or die in the process, or even the radicalization of the Bosnian Muslims if they are forced into a rump Islamic Republic. Serbia will be so delighted to gain northern Kosovo as well as Republika Srpska that it will love the Americans again. It might even be possible to cut a deal with the Russians to recognize the annexation of Crimea in exchange for UN membership for rump Kosovo, which won’t matter for long as it will join Albania in due course. That is the kind of crude ethnonationalist logic the Administration is applying elsewhere, in particular to Israel and Palestine. Why not in the Balkans?
What does this mean for the good people of Serbia, Kosovo, and Bosnia? Pandora’s box will be opened with the border changes:
- Serbs will leave from south of the Ibar in Kosovo,
- Albanians will be pushed out of Serbia,
- Muslims will try to seize Brcko in Bosnia to prevent partition there,
- Bosnian Croats will declare the re-creation of their Herzeg-Bosna parastate.
In short, this is a formula for destabilization of the Balkans, precisely what the Russians have sought. Is it any wonder that the Trump Administration might try to deliver it?
Ironically, Secretary of State Pompeo* has been visiting Macedonia and Montenegro, the two newest members of NATO. He’ll get an earful there about the dangers that lurk in any land swap arrangement. Montenegro, because it has been governed for many years with the support of minorities, is not so much in danger, though quite a few of its Albanians might like to join Kosovo and most of its Serbs remain opposed to its independence. Macedonia is certainly at risk if some sort of land swap becomes a reality, even if many Albanians there will be reluctant to lose their sweet power-sharing arrangement in Skopje.
You might think the Trump Administration has enough trouble of its own making in the Middle East, Ukraine, North Korea, China, Venezuela and half a dozen other places, without reviving the zombie idea of land swaps in the Balkans. But they seem determined, with Grenell’s appointment, to add the Balkans to the list of their foreign policy failures.
*The original post said it was Vice President Pence. Apologies for my mistake.
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I share your concerns regarding the appointment of Richard Grenell as Special Presidential Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations, and the impact of any land swap that might emerge from the negotiations.
But before turning to the consequences of a land swap, let’s consider the larger picture. Vladimir Putin and the Trump Administration no doubt understand that getting the Serbs to recognize Kosovo could serve as a pretext for the recognition of Crimea as part of Russia. That is, if Russia, the US, and EU, were to convince Ukraine to give up Crimea, the Russians could, as a quid pro quo, persuade Serbia to recognize Kosovo. This would then lead to the lifting of Russian sanctions. The Russians in a further quid pro quo might be willing to open the door for the integration of Serbia into the EU.
None of this requires a land swap (unless Russia wants to exchange Donetsk). But a land swap would not only destabilize the Balkans to Russia’s benefit, but also the EU where questions of regional or local autonomy affect a number of member states (Catalonia being the most obvious example). A weaker EU would certainly not displease Mr. Trump.
What is bizarre is someone claiming to stand for “peace”.. .then aligning himself with extreme nationalsits at UNITED MACEDONIA Diaspora and refusing to use the legal name of the country after years of lecturing Greeks for not recognizing the name.
Daniel Serwer is not only bigoted towards Greeks but he’s trying to erase us as a people trying to rob us of our history. Mr.
“peace” is a wannabe ethnic cleanser of Greeks.
So much mindless speculations that I’m starting to think that mr.Server has completly lost his senses. How could you say with a straight face that territorial swap means a detoriation of situation that would end up in bloody wars when this option is most likely to be embraced peacfully by both sides. If this is being pushed unilateraly, then the whole situation will go awry but this not the case as long as both Prishtina and Belgrade agree. The main argument of Server hinges purely on argumentum in terrorem, that is to wave the flag of Bosnia partition while Serbia’s scope is not to do such a thing at least at the given moment. Kosovo and Albania are becoming one in one way or another, so peacfully and naturally that one might even ask why this fuss to forestall this process.