Day: October 7, 2019
Stevenson’s army, afternoon edition
Why wait til morning when there are several really good articles to share?
– Politico says national security officials were blindsided by Trump’s Syria decision.
– Military author Mark Bowden found military officers troubled by Trump’s policies and behavior even before Syria.
-Here’s a chapter on Syria 2013 by former NSA Susan Rice.
-Peter Beinart reviews the Rice, Power, and Rhodes memoirs.
-Just Security has a primer on leaking to Congress.
– I also found interesting this piece on China at the UN.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Sickening
Today’s announcement of a unilateral withdrawal of US forces from northeastern Syria in response to Turkey’s request is the worst of many possible worlds: Ankara will take over the border area, much of which is predominantly Kurdish, precipitating a fight with the PYD Syrian Kurds, ending the Kurdish effort against the remnants of the Islamic State, and enabling the Syrian government to reassert its control over the natural and agricultural resources of the northeast, most of which do not lie along the border.
President Erdogan sought the American withdrawal, though he may be surprised if it is complete. I will be too. The US should be maintaining some counterterrorism forces in northeastern Syria. They could be nominally covert rather than overt. Or they could be maintained over the border in Iraq. The ability to strike quickly and accurately is important. But President Trump needs to be able to brag that he has ended at least one Middle East war and withdrawn American troops, so what is desirable in terms of national security may give way to what is politically convenient.
Turkey will now take on the brunt of the fight against the Islamic State as well as against the Syrian Kurdish forces that support the PKK insurgency inside Turkey. Ankara also intends to move large numbers of Syrian refugees (millions is the stated number) back into a part of Syria where few of them lived before. Whole cities will need to be built. This is a big increase in Turkish burdens. It remains to be seen how well Ankara does. Economic pressures will make it doubly difficult.
The Syrian Kurdish forces will presumably flee south, into territory that is mostly Arab, and turn to Damascus for protection. President Assad used Syrian Kurds against Turkey for many years and will support their efforts to promote insurgency against the Turkish presence in northern Syria. This will put the Russians in an awkward spot, as Moscow wants to maintain good relations with both Ankara and Damascus, but President Putin has proven skilled at that game so far. Iran will be happy to see Turkey discomforted.
The US withdrawal will in principle create an opportunity to improve Washington’s relations with Ankara, but the Turkish purchase of Russian air defenses and the consequent American refusal to sell F35 airplanes to Turkey remain as serious obstacles. It is difficult to see how that knot will get untied, though Erdogan is skilled at backing up when he sees a real need to do so. President Trump would likely give in easily on the F35s, but there Congress plays a decisive role.
A negotiated US withdrawal might have avoided many of the difficulties that will now arise. But President Trump is proving inept at negotiations. The North Koreans have denounced their talks with the US over last weekend as “sickening.” So too is the decision to unilaterally withdraw from Syria.
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Stevenson’s army, October 7
President Trump, following a conversation with Turkish President
Erdogan, announced withdrawal of remaining US forces in Syria,
reportedly against the advice of many advisers. Here’s WaPo’s story, and NYT’s.
Talks with North Korea broke down quickly this weekend. DPRK made blistering comments.
FP says Wagner Group of Russian mercenaries have been sidelined, but others remain.
Head of SouthCom says hundreds are in Venezuela. BTW, Venezuela will be the topic of our simulated SFRC hearing on Oct 23/24.
Kentucky favored by Transportation. No surprise.
Timothy Garton Ash has a good summary of Eastern Europe 30 years after the fall of the wall.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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