Month: October 2019
Impeachment is certain, but when?
The case against President Trump is solid: obstruction of justice documented by Special Counsel Mueller, abuse of power for personal benefit by extorting judicial cooperation from Ukraine, inviting and accepting foreign campaign assistance even in public, and who knows how many financial malfeasances involving laundering money for Russian oligarchs and Saudi princes. The Democratic majority in the House will no doubt vote solidly to impeach, likely joined by a scattering of Republicans. There is no way that having opened an impeachment inquiry the Democrats can now back off, allowing Trump to run in 2020 claiming that even his opposition knows he did nothing wrong.
The only question is when. The Democrats are insisting on moving quickly, which could mean impeachment before the end of this year. I think that would be a mistake. Impeachment would then be a distant memory a year from now, negated at least in part by a quick acquittal in the Senate. The next election is going to be a referendum on Trump, no matter what else appears to be at stake. Better for the Democrats to move with all deliberate speed, piling up the evidence and making it public over the next 10 or 11 months. They could then impeach Trump without leaving enough time for a trial in the Senate, demonstrating that they are prepared to live with the verdict of the American people.
That strikes me as a much better move. Convincing the 20 Senate Republicans needed for a 2/3 majority to abandon Trump is a tall order. The Republican party is disciplined and wholly under the President’s control. But more than half the country already believes he should be impeached, and almost as many people believe he should be removed from office. Why not rely on the good judgment of the citizens, especially after another year of unveiling the many high crimes and misdemeanors Trump is guilty of?
I suppose the argument against this approach is that citizens want their representatives to deliver legislation and services, not only focus on impeaching Trump. But it should be easier to continue legislating, overseeing, and appropriating if impeachment is not on a fast track. In fact, a fast track may not be feasible, as Administration resistance to subpoenas will need to be challenged in court. It is reasonable to think that a thorough impeachment investigation will take at least another 8-10 months. Why not make a virtue of necessity?
Speaker Pelosi is the savviest politician in Washington these days. She’ll make the call on when to impeach, and for what offenses. So far, she is believed to want things to move expeditiously. That’s smart, since otherwise it could all bog down. But I won’t be surprised if she is quietly contemplating a process that lasts another year, with ample subpoenas, public hearings, and publication of more documents and text messages. It is clear to me that Trump runs several criminal enterprises. But that is still not clear to more than 40% of the population. If even a quarter of those can be convinced, defeat for Trump on November 3 next year is certain.
If Trump wins a second term, it will become impossible to impeach him again. Impeachment is an all or nothing proposition. I wouldn’t want the outcome to depend on the Senate more than on American citizens who vote.
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Stevenson’s army, October 25
– WSJ says DOD wants to send tanks and more troops to Syrian oil fields.
– In order to pass this year’s NDAA Sen. Inhofe suggests a “skinny bill.”
– VP Pence’s long delayed China speech seems to criticize US companies more than Beijing. Here’s the text.
– Sen. Graham has a resolution criticizing the impeachment inquiry — and all but 9 GOP Senators are cosponsors.
– Sec. Pompeo was back in Kansas, sounding a lot like a candidate for Senate. See if you agree after reading this amazing interview.
– Huawei spends a lot on US lobbying; now there’s a Ukraine connection.
– NYT says House investigators are working with Bolton lawyers to arrange a deposition.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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“A place to promote war criminals”
The Belgrade-based Humanitarian Law Center writes:
At this year’s Book Fair, the „Defence“ Media Centre, publishing organ of the Ministry of Defence (MoD), will again present books whose author is Nebojša Pavković, and organise a panel devoted to the NATO Intervention. The panel speakers, beside the retired commanders of the Yugoslav Army (VJ)/Serbian Army (VS), Božidar Delić and Ljubiša Diković, will be Vladimir Lazarević and Vinko Pandurević, both convicted war criminals. The Humanitarian Law Center (HLC) points out that by financing and promoting books and public forums where convicts for the most serious crimes are speakers, the MoD are openly treating with contempt the victims of those crimes, and demonstrating a clear adherence to the politics that led to numerous crimes in the former Yugoslavia, and denying the facts established before the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY).
As currently scheduled, the book by Nebojša Pavković will be presented at the 64th Book Fair on October 25, 2019, at 2 p.m. During the conflict in Kosovo, Pavković was the Commander of the Third Army of the VJ. He is a convicted war criminal. The book, entitled “The smell of gunpowder and death at KiM 1998”, is published by the Ministry of Defence in the “Warrior” series, whose author is Nebojša Pavković. Namely, at the last year’s Book Fair, Pavković’s war diary, entitled “Seventy-Eight Days of the Third Army in the Arms of the Merciful Angel” was presented, as well as three other books – the testimonies of war commanders and narratives of certain events (“The Battle for Paštrik” and “The Battle at Košare”). The HLC recalls that Pavković was sentenced to 22 years in prison before the ICTY for deportations, forcible transfers, murders and persecutions as crimes against humanity, and for killings as violations of the laws and customs of war. But this was not discussed at the presentation of the war diaries. The HLC also notes that the MoD spent almost 4 million dinars on costs related to the edition “Warrior” series. By promoting war criminals before the public as heroes and spending budget funds for this purpose, the MoD continues its past policy, which led to crimes against Albanian civilians in Kosovo, and had thereby reinterpreted the facts established before the ICTY.
On the same day, starting at 6 p.m. at the fair stand, the MoD is organising a panel on “Experiences from Actions during the NATO Aggression – Remembered by the Book” whose moderator will be the head of the publishing department of the Serbian Armed Forces, Miroslav Toholj, former Minister of Information in the Government of Republika Srpska (from 1993 to 1995). The panellists will be: Vladimir Lazarević, Commander of the VJ Priština Corps, sentenced by the ICTY to 14 years in prison for deporting and forcibly displacing the Albanian population during the Kosovo conflict; Vinko Pandurević, Commander of the Zvornik Brigade of the Republika Srpska Army, sentenced to 13 years in prison before the ICTY for helping and supporting crimes against humanity and violating the laws or customs of war; Ljubiša Diković, Commander of the 37th Motorised Brigade (37th mtbr) of the VJ and former Chief of the General Staff of the Serbian Armed Forces: and Božidar Delić, Commander of the 549th mtbr VJ. The HLC has recently presented evidence to the public about the role of Ljubiša Diković and Božidar Delić in crimes committed during the Kosovo conflict. Namely, the HLC presented facts and evidence in two Dossiers – Ljubiša Diković and Rudnica – regarding the involvement of the VJ 37th mtbr and Ljubiša Diković in crimes committed against Albanian civilians, as well as on the role of the VJ 549 mtbr whose commander was Božidar Delić. In the areas of responsibility of these two brigades in Kosovo, some 3,500 Albanian civilians were killed. The Serbian Office of the War Crimes Prosecutor has never investigated the HLC’s allegations of the involvement of Diković and Delić in these crimes.
In addition, the Media Defence Centre announces the publication of a book by Dragoljub Ojdanić, a former Chief of the VJ General Staff who was sentenced to 15 years in prison before the ICTY for helping and supporting the deportations and forcible transfers of the Albanian population from Kosovo.
The HLC calls on Serbian institutions to stop promoting and rehabilitating convicted war criminals and to pursue a policy that accepts established facts and takes into account the suffering of victims and their families.
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Croatia in context
I spoke this afternoon at a National Federation of Croatian Americans session on “Croatia’s Role in Southeastern Europe–Facing Instability in the Region.” Time was shorter than anticipated, so I started at 16. My assignment was to talk about the main issues beyond Croatia in the Balkans, but I got to the Bosnian Croats and Croatia at the end.
- The world today is a disordered one. The unipolar moment that enabled so much of what the United States and Europe did in the Balkans in the 1990s ended with the attack on the World Trade Center in 2001.
- There ensued a war on terror that initially enlisted much of the world in response: NATO triggered Article 5 and supported the US invasion of Afghanistan, but unanimity was quickly lost with the invasion of Iraq and the Sunni insurgency there, led by Al Qaeda and Ba’athist diehards.
- The 2008 financial crisis further frayed international consensus: European growth has still not recovered while China’s rise accelerated, and high oil and gas prices gave Russia opportunities to reassert its great power status, which it has done with interventions in Ukraine and Syria.
- The Greek financial crisis, Brexit, immigration, and the rise of the populist ethno-nationalist right within the EU and in the US have changed the basic parameters of our geopolitics.
- Today we live in a world in which the liberal democratic consensus, based on free markets and the conviction that everyone is entitled to equal rights and opportunities, has frayed.
- Russia, China, Turkey, and others are offering an alternative autocratic bargain: in exchange for unfettered long-term power, their leaders are offering state-sponsored economic growth and political stability, at least to those who identify with the majority ethnic group.
- How does all this impact the Balkans?
- First and foremost slow economic growth in Europe depresses the Balkans economies; the region can only thrive when the EU does.
- Europessimism correlates closely with the business cycle. A revival of growth in Europe is vital for renewed interest in enlargement, which will provide the young labor Europe lacks and needs.
- Second: Moscow’s trouble making is plaguing Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia. Croatia’s neighbors are facing concerted efforts to slow or block NATO and EU accession. Even Montenegro and North Macedonia are still targeted.
- Moscow has re-introduced into the Balkans assassination, state disinformation and propaganda, and rent-a-riot techniques we all hoped had disappeared with the Soviet Union.
- Third: China is offering financing for much-needed infrastructure.
- Unlike many Westerners, I see lots of potential benefit in Beijing’s Belt and Road projects, but caveat emptor: China isn’t giving aid, it is financing projects it regards as beneficial to China on terms that can be onerous.
- Fourth: Turkey, as a former colonial power in much of the Balkans and a near neighbor, naturally plays an important role in the region. But President Erdogan has taken a turn in the autocratic and Islamist direction.
- His example is no longer as positive as once it was, and his efforts to get Balkan countries to capture and render his enemies are undermining rule of law in young Balkan democracies.
- Let me turn now to put the focus on the Balkans themselves.
- My view is that there are only two remaining war and peace issues in the region.
- One is normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia.
- The other is fixing the dysfunctional government we gave Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Dayton peace agreement.
- Before anything can happen on normalization, Pristina needs a new government. I imagine that means the LDK and Vetevendosje will share power in a post-electoral coalition, perhaps supported by some lesser parties, including some representing minorities.
- As far apart as the LDK and VV are on some issues and in electoral constituencies, they both grew out of the nonviolent protest movement in Kosovo and will be replacing a KLA coalition whose partners grew out of the violent rebellion.
- I hope that betokens a renewed commitment to Kosovo statehood, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, as well as a broader coalition for the dialogue with Belgrade, along the lines of the platform that the last parliament prepared but the Kosovo constitutional court ruled was the responsibility of the government.
- The Europeans and Americans will be pressing Pristina hard for an agreement with Belgrade in advance of Serbia’s April 2020 election. I see no advantage to Kosovo in giving in to this pressure.
- Pristina will need to be ready to walk away from a bad deal in order to get a good one. A bad deal is one that in any way breaches the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity; a good one will allow for ample decentralization and self-governance for minority communities.
- Some of you will no doubt ask, but what does the appointment of two US envoys betoken about US policy on normalization?
- The short answer is that I don’t know. I think it reflects more confusion than intention. But I won’t be surprised if the ethnic nationalist Ambassador Grenell, who has done his best to offend the German government, tries to revive the land swap idea that failed on its merits so miserably the last time around.
- The failure of the EU to move ahead with accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia will undermine the credibility of Brussels and Washington in upcoming talks between Belgrade and Pristina.
- But neither Tirana nor Skopje should give up hope. Both should do as Montenegro did with NATO membership and continues to do for EU membership: get ready, implement the needed reforms, improve your qualifications, so that when the political window opens you can move quickly in.
- As for Bosnia and Herzegovina, I fear it will need to wait. The international community is simply incapable of dealing with two big issues at once.
- Milorad Dodik will continue to fulminate about independence, somoe Croats will continue to dream of a third entity, and the Bosniaks will try to ignore both and defend the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
- But until there is a concerted effort that gains the support of all three constituent peoples to enable the Sarajevo central government to negotiate and implement the acquis communautaire, I fear little will change.
- That’s my message to Bosnian Croats: stop wasting effort on the third entity, which isn’t going to happen.
- You own a third of the State, use it to help Bosnia and Herzegovina do the reforms necessary for EU accession.
- Beyond that, Croatia can play a crucial role as an EU and NATO member state in keeping hope alive. I trust it will do that.
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Stevenson’s army, October 24
– HASC has a panel that seems well-focused on a major future problem.
– The USG may have to survive on a CR lasting until Feb or March.
– Lawfare has more on illegal delays in Ukraine aid by OMB.
– Dean Cohen on Trump.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Getting ready is the best revenge
Artiana Matoshi of Radio Television Kosovo asked questions. I replied:
Q: The western Balkan states can’t be included in the European Union and this was proved with not opening the negotiations for Albania and North Macedonia. How you assess the refusal of these two countries by EU?
A: This is not a refusal, it is an unexpected and unwelcome postponement caused mainly by French and Dutch internal politics.
Q: Is this injustice towards western Balkans?
A: EU members are entitled to their own decisions on enlargement, but of course they affect the situation in the Balkans. Certainly the decision was unfair after Tirana and Skopje made herculean efforts to meet all the criteria. But those efforts are not wasted: the reforms they have adopted are already benefiting North Macedonia and Albania.
Q: How much will Kosovo be damaged by this [denial of] access of EU towards Balkans?
A: Kosovo is still waiting for the visa waiver, which has also been unfairly denied, but accession talks are still far off. The important thing to remember is that the reforms are vital, even if European promises are not fulfilled. Delay should not be seen as definitive rejection.
Q: Which is the best way for the Balkans to be included faster in EU and what happens if this cannot happen?
A: The only route I know is to qualify as quickly as possible and then wait for the political stars to align. Paris and The Hague have been very short-sighted, but in any case Albania and North Macedonia still have a lot of work to do to qualify for EU membership. Best to get on with that work and demonstrate unequivocally that they are qualified for accession, thus shortening the negotiation process.
Failure of the EU to enlarge will cause serious problems in the Balkans and benefit Russia. But that can only happen if people in the Balkans lose focus and hope. There is no better place for Tirana or Skopje than in Europe.
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