Month: November 2019
Stevenson’s army, November 19
– There’s a deal to extend the CR until Dec 20.
– Administration delays its Huawei ban for another 90 days.
– USAF wants to cut its Global Hawk force.
– Politico says it’s “lights out” for the EMP program.
– On the 100th anniversary of Senate defeat of the Versailles treaty, Walter Russell Mead says the defeat didn’t matter as much as the death of Theodore Roosevelt. I do think it mattered. Even though the US was not really isolationist in the 1920s, it did sit out security issues, where it might have made a difference. More importantly, my research convinces me that the treaty could have been approved if Wilson had been willing to accept modest reservations. So the fault lies with him.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Yes, the Balkans can accede
This French non-paper is roiling the Balkans: while promising eventual accession for all the countries of the region, it proposes tightening up on conditionality and allowing for reversibility.
That is good, not bad. Sharply criticized for blocking the opening of negotiations with Albania and Macedonia, Paris is taking a major step in the right direction by reaffirming that the goal is full membership and specifying precisely what President Macron wants to re-initiate the accession process.
The criticism of this move comes from two directions.
Some see the non-paper as an effort to postpone re-initiation of the process with Macedonia and Albania even further. I suppose that is a likely effect, since it will take time for the European Union to sort out what it wants to do with the French proposal, but there is nothing to prevent Skopje and Tirana from using the time to adopt and implement as many parts of the acquis communautaire as they can. The “negotiations” are not really much more than verification of progress in achieving implementation. All candidate countries know what they need to do to qualify for the EU. The faster they get on with it, the quicker they will get there.
Others say there are aspects of the French proposal that fail to take into account what is already being done. I imagine that might be true. I am not in a position to judge the details. It will certainly take some time for the other member states to evaluate and propose revisions to what the French have put forward. But if the result is a clearer and stricter set of conditions for EU membership, I see no reason not to applaud. Backsliding is all too apparent in the Balkans, including in current member Croatia. Scholarship has revealed interesting reasons for this, including the way the EU is currently conducting the accession process. Straightening that out might not accelerate accession, but it would improve performance in the candidate states.
I am a fan of strict conditionality: there is no reason for current EU member states to invite as a new member any state that is unwilling to meet the requirements of membership. But how it is achieved–path dependency in political science terms–is important. Natasha Wunsch and Solveig Richter propose this:
If thorough democratic transformation still remains the EU’s goal in the region, conditionality needs to be complemented with a more comprehensive and deliberate empowerment of national parliaments and civil society actors as a counterweight to dominant executives. Favouring domestic deliberation rather than incentive-driven compliance should go a long way in ensuring the sustainability of rule of law and democratic reforms even once the Western Balkan countries have eventually become EU members.
I’m not sure this empowerment of civil society and national parliaments will be sufficient, but it seems to me a reasonable experiment to embark on. I think it also important to train up an independent civil service that remains in place with changing governments and to protect the independence of the judiciary and the media. The trouble with conditionality as currently pursued, as I read Richter and Wunsch, is that it strengthens executive power. Balancing that with constraining institutions is the right way to go.
In any event, those in the Balkans who want to see real reform should welcome the French proposal and hope the EU will get on expeditiously with whatever changes it wants to make in the accession process. And in the meanwhile, those serious about accession will be working hard implementing the acquis as swiftly as possible, to be ready when the political window to the EU opens once again.
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Stevenson’s army, November 18
– NYT has a trove of leaked Iranian intelligence reports showing its activities in Iraq.
– Inside Iran, the government has blocked the internet.
– China is criticizing US moves in South China Sea.
– US believes China recruits its overseas students as spies.
– Columnist suggests selling B-21 to Australia.
– NBC says Trump is angry at Pompeo.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 16
-WSJ has an article urging a US industrial policy which I find persuasive.
– The Nuclear Threat Initiative has a background paper on Russia’s new weaponry.
– TNSR has a roundtable on reforming the war powers processes.
– Bloomberg reviews the changing Trump trade policies.
– Meanwhile, Trump pardoned war criminals, contrary to DOD recommendations.
– South Korea rejects intelligence sharing with Japan.
And this from WSJ:
U.S. MILITARY reduces press access to combat troops
in Afghanistan. War correspondents accompanied Marines into the country
in 2001, and for years the Pentagon facilitated front-line visits.
After Special Forces and Rangers took the combat lead in 2014, embeds
became rarer.
In the past year, the number of embeds with the 13,000 U.S. troops remaining in the country has declined sharply. The message from Kabul HQ: “We do attempt to make every opportunity available to cover other events—such as the important train, advise and assist mission the Coalition of 40 nations is conducting.”
This year, the U.S. Embassy in Kabul has largely ceased speaking to the international media in the Afghan capital. Commanders and diplomats fear U.S. news coverage could lead President Trump to tweet a strategic reversal or further upend peace talks. They glimpsed that possibility with Trump’s surprise withdrawal from Syria.
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Two Americas
I won’t claim to have watched all of this, but some of you may want to see what integrity and dignity look like, since it has not been common in American public life lately:
I would say the same about George Kent* and Bill Taylor’s testimony from earlier in the week:
You don’t really need to watch much to understand that these are honest, sincere, knowledgeable, and capable people committed to serving America’s interests abroad. They respond cautiously but clearly to questions and project a coherent and compelling picture of American foreign policy in Ukraine.
The contrast with Donald Trump and his minions, who lie habitually and don’t hesitate to offer illogical and incoherent arguments, couldn’t be more dramatic. No matter how much the Republicans deny it, it is clear Trump sought to serve his own personal political interests by getting Ukraine to open an investigation of Joe Biden and his son, at the cost of weakening Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. If you can’t see the contrast, it’s time for a talk with your conscience.
The impeachment inquiry is revealing two America’s: one in which unrestrained pursuit of self-interest is paramount and another in which the nation’s interests and values come first. The real charge against Trump is inability even to conceive of the latter as he pursues the former.
But that is not how the indictment will read. More likely it will be something like the following:
- Corrupt abuse of power by trying to bribe Ukraine to open an investigation of a political opponent using military assistance appropriated by Congress.
- Illegally welcoming and accepting assistance from Russia in the 2016 presidential campaign.
- Obstructing justice during the Mueller investigation, intimidating witnesses with threatening tweets, and blocking Congressional oversight by ordering officials not to respond to subpoenas.
These are much more serious charges than against Bill Clinton, who lied to a grand jury about an affair with a White House intern. It is also arguably worse than the charges against Richard Nixon, which concerned a burglary and his attempts to cover up his role in ordering it.
As if to confirm his amorality, Trump yesterday pardoned three American soldiers accused of war crimes, over the objection of the Pentagon. The pardon power is unconstrained, so he will likely use it again in the cases of his seven campaign and administration officials already tried and convicted, including one of his best friends found guilty yesterday on seven criminal charges.
Clinton barely survived the vote in the Senate. Nixon resigned rather than allow that vote to seal his fate. Trump may survive and won’t resign. His only protection from financial and legal ruin is remaining in office. Removing him would require 20 honest Republicans to join with the Senate Democrats in finding him guilty as charged. There is no sign there are that many in the Senate. But if Trump loses a simple majority in the Senate, it would be a clear signal that his prospects in the 2020 election are fading. If ever the Republicans in Congress think they are going down with Trump, they may finally abandon him.
The rest of the world will need patience. The America of Yovanovitch, Packer, and Taylor is down but not out. Everywhere I go these days–mainly to talk with people from the Balkans, the European Union, and the Middle East–colleagues are longing for an America committed to democracy, human rights, integrity, and accountability. They can hardly believe it no longer exists in the White House. It does however exist and will return to power, I hope sooner rather than later.
*Apologies: I originally had “Packer” here. I’m reading that George’s bio of Holbrooke, so I plead crossed synapses.
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Peace Picks | November 18 – November 22
Responding to Armed Groups in Venezuela | November 18, 2019 | 9:30 AM – 11:15 AM | CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Please join CSIS’ Future of Venezuela Initiative for a discussion on how the presence of illegal armed groups affects the transition process in Venezuela, and what the United States, the international community, and other pertinent actors within Latin America can do to mitigate the effect of these groups.
The presence of armed groups in Venezuela significantly affects how policymakers consider addressing the Venezuelan political and humanitarian crisis. The Maduro regime seeks to benefit from Venezuela’s status as a hub for transnational crime and illicit activities, causing policymakers to doubt what the best approach to address the crisis would be. Illegal armed groups finding haven in Venezuela not only adds new threats to Venezuela’s internal security, but also threatens Colombia’s security and the region writ-large. Illegal armed groups in Venezuela include the National Liberation Army (ELN), remnants of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), colectivos, garimpeiros, and other residual organized armed groups (GAO) and criminal gangs.
The event will feature keynote remarks from Colombia’s High Commissioner for Peace, Miguel Ceballos, and from Paul Ahern, the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury Department. The remarks will be followed by a panel with former National Security Advisers to the White House and the former Vice President of Panama, and will be moderated by CSIS’ Moises Rendon.
FEATURING
Fernando Cutz
Senior Associate, The Cohen Group; Former National Security Council
Isabel de Saint Malo de Alvarado
Former Vice President and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Government of Panama
Dan Fisk
Chief Operations Officer, International Republican Institute; Former National Security Council
Juan Cruz
Senior Adviser, CSIS Americas Program; Former National Security Council
Miguel Ceballos
High Commissioner for Peace, Government of Colombia
Paul Ahern
Principal Deputy
Assistant Secretary, U.S. Treasury Department
CSIS Debate Series: Does the U.S. Need a Foreign Policy for sub-Saharan Africa? | November 20, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 11:30 AM | CSIS Headquarters, Floor 2, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Does
democracy foster economic growth? Does great power competition hurt or empower
the continent? Does the U.S. even need a foreign policy for sub-Saharan Africa?
Since the 1990s, there has been a consensus about U.S. priorities and policies
toward the region. While continuity has its merits, it also acts as a brake on
creativity, innovation, and new thinking about U.S. interests in sub-Saharan
Africa. The CSIS Africa Debate Series offers an opportunity to question and
refine policy objectives to meet a changing political landscape.
The CSIS Africa Program with the support of the Open Society Foundations is
hosting a series of debates in Washington, D.C. and other U.S. cities to
challenge old paradigms and identify new approaches to tackle pressing
U.S.-Africa policy issues. For its inaugural debate on November 20, 2019 from
9:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m., CSIS will pose the question, “Does the United States
need a foreign policy in sub-Saharan Africa?” to former U.S. government
officials and African scholars. Experts will face off to identify the advantages
and disadvantages of U.S. engagement in Africa and to open a dialogue on a new
framework for U.S. foreign policy toward the region. Audience members will vote
key debate points as well as participate in a Question & Answer session.
Save the date, register, and subscribe to
the CSIS Africa Program distribution list to receive updates on the Debate
Series.
FEATURING
Africa Program Director, Wilson Center
Senior Managing Legal Officer, Open Society Justice Initiative
Founding
Partner, Total Impact Capital (TOTAL)
The State of Human Rights in Africa | November 20, 2019 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM | Brookings Institution, Saul/Zilkha Room 1775, Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
On a continent as vast and diverse as Africa, there are no simple narratives on freedom and human rights. Like many places in the world, there are hopeful trends and success stories, but also worrisome trends and signs of backsliding. While sincere efforts to enshrine human rights in law are found in most of Africa’s 54 countries, the actual protection of those rights often falls victim to corruption or to violent non-state actors with other designs in mind. But there are reasons for optimism as well as caution — and ample data to show observers where the trends are going. For instance, according to Freedom House, sub-Saharan Africa has about 10 “free” countries (most of them small), about 20 “partly free,” and about 20 more “not free” nations. Recent trends in The Gambia and Angola give rise to optimism, while repressive actions in Tanzania and Uganda suggest they have a ways to go.
On November 20, the Africa Security Initiative at the Brookings Institution will host a panel of experts on human rights trends in Africa. Questions will follow from the audience.
Speakers:
Moderator
Michael E. O’Hanlon
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy
Director of Research – Foreign Policy
The Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
Panelists
Mausi Segun
Executive Director, Africa – Human Rights Watch
Tiseke Kasambala
Chief of Party, Advancing Rights in Southern Africa Program – Freedom House
Jon Temin
Director,
Africa Program – Freedom House
Repairing the Damage: The future of U.S. relations with our Syrian Kurdish and the fight against ISIS | November 20, 2019 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Russell Senate Office, 2 Constitution Ave NE, Room 385, Washington, DC 20002 | Register Here
Turkey’s recent invasion of the predominantly Kurdish region (Rojava) in northeast Syria has upended the successful four year joint operation between the United States and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against ISIS in Syria and left the Syrian Kurds and their partners at the mercy of Putin and Assad to seek protection against advancing Turkish forces.
Nearly 300,000 Kurds, Christians, and Arabs have been displaced and more than 700 people have been killed in the conflict which has also placed the anti-ISIS campaign at risk, including the potential escape of 1000s of ISIS prisoners in SDF-managed camps in eastern Syria. Alongside the Turkish military, radical jihadist fighters backed by Turkey have committed documented war crimes including the brutal murder of female Syrian Kurdish politician, Hevrin Khalaf.
Despite the U.S.-Turkish ceasefire agreement, Turkey and its proxies continue to bombard and invade areas outside the zone and Turkish President Erdogan has continued to reiterate his intention to ‘cleanse’ the area of local inhabitants. Confusion exists over the implications of the recent US decision to redeploy a small number of US forces back into eastern Syria to protect oil resources there.
The panel discussion will address the future relationship between the US and its Syrian Kurdish allies and the way forward to stop Turkey’s military operation, remove Turkish-backed jihadi proxies from the area and prevent the re-emergence of ISIS.
Opening Remarks — Honorable Senator Chris Van Hollen
Panel Discussion
Moderator: Dr. Najmaldin Karim, President of the Washington Kurdish Institute
Ms. Ilham Ahmed, President of the Syrian Democratic Council
Dr. Amy Austin Holmes, Woodrow Wilson International Center &Visiting Professor at Harvard University
Dr. Aykan Erdemir, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Future Geopolitical Realities and Expectations in Syria | November 21, 2019 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM | National Press Club, 529 14th St NW, Washington, DC 20045 | Register Here
On November
21st, the Turkish Heritage Organization will host President of the Independent
Syrian Kurdish Association Abdulaziz Tammo, Council of United Syrians and
Americans Executive Director Hamdi Rifai, and TRT World Middle East
Correspondent Sarah Firth for a discussion on “Future
Geopolitical Realities and Expectations in Syria”.
The Role of Women in Syria’s Future | November 21, 2019 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | Middle East Institute, 1763 N Street NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a public event featuring a panel of influential Syrian women, which will focus on the important role of women within Syrian civil society and in local and international initiatives aimed at shaping a better future for Syria. The panel will focus particularly on the contributions made by women in Syria’s ongoing political processes, including the nascent Geneva negotiation track, as well as in the recently UN-convened Constitutional Committee.
Please join us for this timely discussion on the role of women at home and abroad, amid conflict and a continuing search for peace and justice in Syria.
Speakers
Sarah Hunaidi
Writer and human rights activist; member of the Syrian Women’s Political Movement
Rafif Jouejati
Co-founder and Director, FREE-Syria
Jomana Qaddour
Lawyer and analyst; co-founder, Syria Relief & Development
Vivian Salama
Journalist, The Wall Street Journal
Energizing India: Conversations on Energy Access and Security | November 22, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM | 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC | Register Here
India faces various accessibility challenges in rural and urban regions. Smart grid and off-grid solutions subsidized by the Indian government have made the country one of the fastest electrifying in the world. While the Indian government claims 100 percent electrification, and thus significant transmission and distribution infrastructure, energy experts raise questions about the impact of these government-led efforts. As electrification grows among households, new solutions from both public and private sector entities must ensure long-term energy access and security.
Please join the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center and South Asia Center on Friday, November 22, 2019 from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. for a conversation with Shreerupa Mitra, Executive Director of The Energy Forum, about her new book, “Energizing India: Fuelling a Billion Lives.” followed by two expert panels on energy access and security in India.
Book Discussion: Energizing India: Fuelling a Billion Lives
Shreerupa Mitra
Executive
Director
The Energy Forum
Moderated by
Randolph Bell
Director, Global Energy CenterAtlantic Council
Panel I: Ensuring Energy Access
Dr. Johannes Urpelainen
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Professor of Energy,
Resources and Environment; Director, Energy, Resources and Environment Program,
School of Advanced International Studies
Johns Hopkins University
Moderated by
Bina Hussein
Associate Director, Global Energy Center
Atlantic Council
Panel II: Ensuring Energy Security
Amos Hochstein
Former Special Envoy and Coordinator for International
Energy Affairs
US Department of State
Shreerupa Mitra
Executive Director
The Energy Forum
Moderated by
Dr. Irfan Noorruddin
Director, South Asia Center
Atlantic Council
*More speakers to be announced soon*
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