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Impeachment day

The US House of Representatives will impeach President Trump today, or if the debate goes too long maybe tomorrow. The charges are clear: abuse of power and obstructing Congress. The evidence is overwhelming and uncontested: using his personal lawyer, Trump used US government assets to further his personal electoral interests by trying to get Ukraine to investigate a political rival and ordered Administration officials not to cooperate with the impeachment process.

The outcome of the trial in the Senate, where a two-thirds majority is required, is just as clear. Virtually all of the 53 Republicans are so far determined to vote against removing the President from office. It is not even clear that the Senate will permit a serious trial with witnesses. Senate Majority Leader McConnell has announced that he is not impartial, despite Senate rules that require he swear an oath or affirm that

in all things appertaining to the trial of Donald J. Trump, now pending, I will do impartial justice according to the Constitution and laws, so help me God.

Clearly, McConnell should not be voting on impeachment when it is taken up in the Senate in January, nor should he be deciding what the procedure there will be.

Meanwhile, President Trump has sent what can only be termed a nutty letter to Speaker of the House Pelosi objecting to the impeachment proceedings in stentorian tones. The letter itself could be the basis for an article of impeachment, as it fails to acknowledge the House’s constitutional authority to conduct the impeachment process. It thus confirms that the President is attempting to obstruct Congress in fulfilling its responsibilities.

It is still unclear what the political consequences of this impeachment will be. Those who hoped impeachment would tame Trump have already been proved wrong. But despite the partisan divide, the House has been able to proceed with budget bills containing lots of controversial measures. Those are expected to be approved in the Senate by Friday, when otherwise the US Government will again have to go through the ridiculous process of shutting down.

Both Democrats and Republicans seem concerned that they demonstrate some tangible progress on issues that matter to Americans (family leave, health care, gun research) even while conducting a dialogue of the deaf on impeachment. That is good news on the domestic front, at least for now.

More important is how impeachment, followed by “acquittal” in the Senate, will affect turnout and voting in the November 2020 election, when all of the House, one-third of the Senate, and the White House will be on the ballot. It certainly didn’t help the Democrats when Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998 but not removed from office. But those were different times. So far impeachment has done little to damage Trump’s support with those who approve of his performance as President.

How will impeachment affect the President, especially his foreign policy moves? My best guess is that he will become anxious to show some results even if he does not moderate his language or behavior. He has already reached a truce in the trade war with the Chinese, giving Beijing more than he got. He has also ordered a partial withdrawal from Afghanistan, despite the failure to reach an agreement with the Taliban. He will likely also cave to North Korea, which has turned belligerent towards its erstwhile lover. Trump has nothing to show for his erratic Russophilia and his hostility towards friends, allies, and democracies. Making America Grate Again is not, it turns out, a way to serve the national interest.

But the biggest factor affecting Trump’s electoral prospects is the economy. It is already slowing, and Boeing’s 737 Max problems will slow it further. Watch that space: an end to the longest US expansion ever would imperil Trump more than impeachment.