Day: December 20, 2019
Untied Kingdom
The UK parliament approved Prime Minister Johnson’s Brexit plan today, intended to implement the June 2016 referendum approved by less than 52% of those voting.
Formal withdrawal from the EU will happen on January 31. The immediate economic consequences are not dramatic. The UK will remain part of the European Union’s single market during a transition period that lasts until the end of next year, when Johnson has promised a free trade agreement with the EU will be in place. Ever since the 2016 referendum UK businesses have been adjusting to the prospect of Brexit, with mainly negative consequences for a private sector economy now headed towards recession. The BBC offers a good summary of what happens next.
But that is not where the beef is. Two swords already hang over the Brexit process: one is Scottish, the other is Irish. A third Welsh sword isn’t far behind.
Scotland voted to remain in the EU. Its pro-EU Scottish National Party won the vast majority of Scotland’s seats in the UK election earlier this month. Its leader has promised a new referendum on secession from the UK in 2020. The 2014 Scottish referendum, conducted before Brexit was on the horizon, failed but gathered almost 45% of the vote. The next one is likely to pass.
Northern Ireland also voted to remain in the EU. Johnson’s Brexit plan calls for customs checks between England and Northern Ireland, in order to allow Northern Ireland to avoid border checks with EU member Ireland. The Protestants of Northern Ireland aren’t ready to throw themselves into the arms of Dublin, but they are getting a big push in that direction. Most Catholics need no push. They would be glad to see a reunited Ireland.
Wales voted to leave the EU 52-48, but that was likely due mainly to English voters living in Wales. When the Welsh, who have revived their language in recent decades, begin to understand that their substantial EU benefits are drying up, who knows what will happen.
So the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is at risk. Boris Johnson knows this and is emphasizing that it is the United Kingdom that will leave the EU at the end of January. But he is going to have a hard time blocking the Scots from secession. He would have to offer a massive economic package in order to prevent it, and even then the Scots may decide they are more interested in maintaining their ties to Europe. Will Northern Ireland and Wales be far behind?
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Stevenson’s army, December 20
– NYT has the tick tock on how Pelosi and Lighthizer got to Yes on the USMCA trade deal with labor support.
– WaPo shows sequence of Trump’s belief in Ukraine interference in 2016. Former Trump officials link it to Putin’s influence.
– There’s still hope: the special House committee on modernization urges specific reforms. There’s their release.
BTW: both Houses have adjourned until January.
– India cracks down with detentions and internet suspension.
– A Tufts prof says cybersecurity experts are being driven out of government.
– One of the most significant unreported [other than FT] stories is this: China is set to open enough new coal-fired plants to equal Europe’s current capacity.
PS: SecState Pompeo has lunch scheduled today with Trump. Will he finally announce his plan to return to Kansas and run for Senate?
And a supplement:
I found several more items worthy of your weekend time.
– Ward Just has died. He was an outstanding WaPo reporter from Vietnam until being wounded. He then turned to fiction, and wrote some of the most realistic Washington novels I’ve ever read. [Only Thomas Mallon comes close.] His political characters are true and complex.
– The Vietnam draft lottery spawned decades of valuable scientific research because it produced truly random samples for later study. Some of the vet/nonvet results are deeply troubling. [FYI, I lucked out: my birthday was 312 in the lottery.]
-CFR has its latest report on what to worry about in 2020. [We’ll read this in the spring course.]
– Reuters says Saudi oil fields attack came from the north, thus likely Iran.
– Atlantic Council has a good new report urging “managed competition” with China, with justifiable heavy emphasis on economic issues like R&D and trade.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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