Untied Kingdom

The UK parliament approved Prime Minister Johnson’s Brexit plan today, intended to implement the June 2016 referendum approved by less than 52% of those voting.

Formal withdrawal from the EU will happen on January 31. The immediate economic consequences are not dramatic. The UK will remain part of the European Union’s single market during a transition period that lasts until the end of next year, when Johnson has promised a free trade agreement with the EU will be in place. Ever since the 2016 referendum UK businesses have been adjusting to the prospect of Brexit, with mainly negative consequences for a private sector economy now headed towards recession. The BBC offers a good summary of what happens next.

But that is not where the beef is. Two swords already hang over the Brexit process: one is Scottish, the other is Irish. A third Welsh sword isn’t far behind.

Scotland voted to remain in the EU. Its pro-EU Scottish National Party won the vast majority of Scotland’s seats in the UK election earlier this month. Its leader has promised a new referendum on secession from the UK in 2020. The 2014 Scottish referendum, conducted before Brexit was on the horizon, failed but gathered almost 45% of the vote. The next one is likely to pass.

Northern Ireland also voted to remain in the EU. Johnson’s Brexit plan calls for customs checks between England and Northern Ireland, in order to allow Northern Ireland to avoid border checks with EU member Ireland. The Protestants of Northern Ireland aren’t ready to throw themselves into the arms of Dublin, but they are getting a big push in that direction. Most Catholics need no push. They would be glad to see a reunited Ireland.

Wales voted to leave the EU 52-48, but that was likely due mainly to English voters living in Wales. When the Welsh, who have revived their language in recent decades, begin to understand that their substantial EU benefits are drying up, who knows what will happen.

So the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is at risk. Boris Johnson knows this and is emphasizing that it is the United Kingdom that will leave the EU at the end of January. But he is going to have a hard time blocking the Scots from secession. He would have to offer a massive economic package in order to prevent it, and even then the Scots may decide they are more interested in maintaining their ties to Europe. Will Northern Ireland and Wales be far behind?