Day: January 25, 2020
Syria isn’t over
On October 6 last year President Trump and Turkish President Erdogan had a telephone call that altered US policy in Syria. The White House released a statement that the United States Armed Forces would not support or be involved in the Turkish operation into northern Syria. The US no longer deemed ISIS to have a territorial ‘Caliphate,’ leading the Administration to leave the area. This phone call resulted in the abandonment of a strong US ally, the Kurds in northeastern Syria, to face Turkey alone.
This policy shift served as the foundation of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy policy forum titled The New Status Quo in Northeast Syria: Humanitarian and Security Implications on January 23. The forum was composed of Gonul Tol, Founding Director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkish Studies Program, Wladimir van Wilgenburg, coauthor of the 2019 book, The Kurds of Northern Syria: Governance, Diversity, and Conflicts, and Dana Stroul, Kassen Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics.
SDF still functioning
Van Wilgenburg, who recently returned from a trip into northeastern Syria, utilized this map to illustrate the presence and role of geopolitical actors.
The yellow portion of the map is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which continue to control significant territory. Having visited Syria post-October, he noted the increase of Russian vehicles on the roads, replacing American trucks. Overall, van Wilgenburg stated that the situation on the ground has not changed tremendously; however, the Kurds are scared of possible upcoming demographic changes due to Turkish plans for the creation of refugee resettlement camps in the region.
Van Wilgenburg emphasized that the biggest problem for the SDF is that they still lack recognition from Damascus and are not official participants in peace talks. The economy is much better than in the areas the Syrian government controls, particularly with regards to electricity and water services. While Assad isn’t willing to make concessions to recognizing SDF, he does understand that without the 80,000+ SDF fighters, there would be a huge vacuum, as Syrian forces are not large enough to maintain the SDF territory. SDF is in a weaker state than it was prior to October, but it is still functioning, as long as the cease-fire holds.
Erdogan is worried about his domestic support
Gonul focused on Erdogan’s foreign policy, which is connected directly to his domestic policies. While Turkey’s hope was to create a Turkey-controlled safe zone stretching all the way to the Iraqi border with the capacity to host 1-2 million Syrian refugees, that has not happened. The pocket of Turkish controlled-area is significantly smaller than Erdogan’s intentions.
According to Gonul, Erdogan has not been speaking about Syria as much on local news because the topic is closely tied to domestic Turkish politics and his own status. Turkey is hosting close to 4 million refugees from Syria. This weakens Erdogan, as anti-Kurdish sentiment is strong and blames Erdogan for allowing so many refugees in.
Turkish Kurds have captured a historic 13% of the vote and deprived Erdogan a parliamentary majority. With the Kurds supporting the Turkish opposition, President Erdogan lost local elections in March. Erdogan is trying to marginalize and criminalize the Kurdish opposition. Gonul suggested that Erdogan’s failure to meet his goals in Syria has led to his shift of attention to Libya.
Turkey has also not delivered on capturing Idlib, where there are tensions between Ankara and Moscow. Despite their fragile relationship, Erdogan will not act in Syria without a Russian “green light.” Between tensions with Russia and the United States, Turkey is squeezed in Syria. Gonul does not believe Erdogan will defy the United States in Syria, as the threat of sanctions could strain the already weak Turkish economy.
Why the US Government should care about Syria
Stroul brought the conversation to a more global and US-centric arena, highlighting the core findings from the Syria Study Group report in 2019. She emphasized that Syria is of interest to the US for multiple reasons, but mainly because it represents a geostrategic nexus of threats facing the US: terrorism, Iran and it’s power projection into the region, and Russia and Great Power competition. Stroul disagreed with the notion that the conflict is over, suggesting that it is only entering a new phase. Stroul emphasized that since the Trump/Erdogan phone call there is no longer the same trust between the SDF and the US. This will lead to major consequences in the region.
All three panelists emphasized that refugees are not going to return to Syria at present despite Erodgan’s plan. Van Wilgenburg added that most of the refugees in Turkey that Erdogan is referring to are actually from Aleppo and other more western cities in Syria. They will not want to be relocated to northeastern Syria.
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Stevenson’s army, September 25
Happy Lunar New Year! Welcome to the year of the Rat.
The coronavirus epidemic prompts me to remind you of a congressional anomaly. In the Senate, health policy is set by a committee that also does education and labor issues. In the House, however, health laws are written by the Energy and Commerce Committee. Why? Because more than a century ago that panel had jurisdiction over “quarantine” laws and had created the Public Health Service to protect us from overseas illnesses. Over time it expanded its jurisdiction over all health laws except Medicare.
Another congressional item: in the House, often the only way the minority can influence bills is through a “motion to recommit.” Speaker Pelosi has already lost several such votes and wants to avoid another. So the war powers bills coming up next week are to be attached to a Senate-passed bill as amendments, thus preventing the MTR [Lesson: the rules matter.]
NYT reports that the Pentagon prevailed over Commerce in a fight about how restrictive to be on Huawei products.
NYT also reports that Mexico is being very helpful in enforcing Trump administration immigration policies.
There were more big demonstrations in Iraq calling for withdrawal of US forces. NYT notes how well orchestrated the demonstrators were, with most signs in English.
Yahoo news has a story of a chance to kill Suleimani that was rejected.
I read the Post in broadsheet, but a writer for Columbia Journalism Review reports what the paper does to maintain its huge lead over NYT online. Think about this as you read the news. Yes, you are being manipulated.
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Pompeo is a failure
Here is Secretary of State Pompeo in an interview with Mary Louise Kelly of NPR that demonstrates unequivocally his unfitness for office:
First he defends withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or Iran nuclear deal), which has led inexorably to Iran acquiring more of the materials required for nuclear weapons. In self-defense, he simply asserts “we’ll stop them,” with no evidence whatsoever. That’s because there is none.
Then he declares himself happy with the Administration’s Ukraine policy, which he claims the State Department controls, and says he has defended every single State Department official. This despite the fact that he has not defended several officials who testified in Congress and that Rudy Giuliani was conducting Ukraine policy outside State Department channels.
In any event, listen to the end, since Kelly then reports on a subsequent conversation with the Secretary, in which he berates her for asking about Ukraine in ways that are simply unacceptable, even if unsurprising. No one should expect this Administration to show even minimal respect for a media professional. It prefers the hacks at Fox News who do its bidding.
Pompeo, again not surprisingly, also has bigoted views on Muslims and counts right-wing extremists among his greatest admirers. That may seem obscure or irrelevant to many Americans, but stop a moment to consider how the 1.8 billion Muslims on earth look at a country that has a bigot as Secretary of State.
The simple fact is that Pompeo is not qualified to lead American foreign policy, which is failing in the most important challenges he faces. In addition to precipitating Iran’s return to pursuit of nuclear weapons, the Administration is presiding over a stunning array of failures:
- North Korea continues to produce nuclear weapons and improve its missiles.
- Venezuela’s President Maduro continues in power.
- Russia continues to occupy a good slice of Ukraine.
- Iran and Russia are winning back control of Syria for President Assad.
- Iraqis are pushing back against the presence of US troops.
- The American “deal of the century” for Israel and Palestine stands no chance of acceptance by the Palestinians.
- The trade war with China has been suspended with few gains, in order to provide American farmers some relief before the 2020 election.
I could go on, but the overall picture is clear: “America First” foreign policy has failed, often because it has amounted to “America Alone.” Our major European allies (that’s now France and Germany, with the UK out of the European Union) are no longer cooperating voluntarily with the US. They can do better withholding cooperation and only giving in when they can get something in return from a transactional president. A few weaker reeds like Poland, Hungary, Italy as well as post-Brexit Britain may be more on board with this Administration, but mainly because of their own nationalist domestic politics. The sense of shared mission to make the world safer for democracy has evaporated. Its now every country for itself.
Lots of us, including me, thought Pompeo might be a relative success compared to his disastrous predecessor, Rex Tillerson. But succeeding as Secretary of State in an administration as wrong-headed about the world as this one just isn’t possible. It will take a decade or more to rebuild US influence in the world once Trump is out of office. Two decades or more if he wins a second term.
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