Month: January 2020
Laughing stock
This is an interesting and detailed accounting of US “maximum pressure” efforts against Syria. Googletranslate worked pretty well. I haven’t seen the material in the English-language press. The Americans are trying to use their own and European pressure to get political reform and reduce Iranian influence in Syria. The pressure is intended to come from new sanctions, withholding normalization, blocking reconstruction assistance, and drying up Syrian finances.
Meanwhile the Russians are supporting a regime offensive into Idlib province and blocking humanitarian assistance from crossing the Iraqi and Jordanian borders. Both Washington and Moscow seem inclined to wait the other out. Tehran–under pressure on the home front, handicapped by Soleimani’s death, and preoccupied with US threats–are losing some traction in Syria, yielding to Moscow’s stronger hand. Damascus meanwhile is stonewalling the UN effort to negotiate political reform.
Presidents Assad and Putin think they are holding the stronger hand, as we can tell from this joking conversation about inviting President Trump to Damascus so that he’ll see the light:
I think they are right. There just is not enough in the American pressure package to stop Assad and Putin from laughing at Trump, who has been busy claiming to his supporters that US troops in northeastern Syria are “keeping the oil.” He is apparently unaware that the amount is small, it is sold locally (likely to Damascus), and I suspect the proceeds go to the Kurds helping to protect the oil field, not the Americans. No need to mention that any “keeping the oil,” even the profits from it, would be a warm crime under the Fourth Geneva Convention as well as several other international agreements prohibiting pillage.
The American approach to Syria has been ineffectual from the first, when it started in the Obama Administration. That is partly because the Americans don’t really care about Syria at all, but only about extremists and Iranians present there. From that perspective some progress has been made: the Islamic State has lost its geographic caliphate and the Iranians are finding it difficult to sustain their efforts there as the Russians claim whatever meat is left on the bone. It is good news that the Americans and Europeans are maintaining the sanctions and continuing to insist on political reform as the price for reconstruction assistance, but it isn’t likely to happen anytime soon.
What does all this mean for Syrians? Nothing good. The standoff between Moscow and Washington is likely to continue, the Turks are busy trying to stabilize a good part of northern Syria, the Russians and the regime are pressing ahead in Idlib, and the Americans are doing their best to hold on to a toehold in the northeast with their Kurdish friends. The war has declined in intensity, but large numbers of people are still being displaced (many of them after several previous displacements), and the regime is increasing its control over humanitarian assistance.
The Americans are continuing to prove ineffectual. Make America Great Again appears to mean becoming a laughingstock for Assad and Putin.
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Stevenson’s army, January 15
Although Wolf Blitzer and fellow moderators devoted the first hour of the Democratic presidential candidate debate to foreign policy, political experts at a CFR panel I attended Tuesday said foreign policy hardly ever matters in US elections unless there is an active shooting war with significant American casualties. Even trade isn’t making a difference with voters these days, they said. Most interesting to me was Charlie Cook’s observation that unless Biden is the clear leader after Iowa and NH, Mike Bloomberg is likely to shoot to the front on Super Tuesday and stands a good chance of winning the nomination even in a brokered convention.
Sen. Kaine [D-Va] seems to have the votes for a war powers restriction on President Trump regarding Iran. The Hill has the best story of the successful negotiations with Republicans, but the parliamentary snafu that postpones debate until next week.
Washington Examiner has a story based on SAIS prof Jim Mann’s new book about the Cheney-Powell feud over foreign policy in the Bush 43 administration.
Fred Kaplan dissects administration Iran policy, sees regime change as a delusion.
A CFR writer says Huawei blacklist may backfire.
Vox disputes Trump claim about Saudi contributions to US military.
WSJ says US threatens cut in military aid to Iraq if US troops are forced to leave.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 14
– WSJ has a review of the US-China trade talks, culminating in the agreement due to be signed tomorrow. As a sweetener,Treasury de-listed China as a currency manipulator yesterday.
– WaPo notes how many tariffs will stay in place.
-NYT says Maduro lets rural Venezuela suffer as he protects his urban supporters.
– European powers try to keep JCPOA alive.
– WaPo columnist complains that media let retired 4-stars talk about defense issues without disclosing their financial ties.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 13, 2nd edition
– NYT has long article on Joe Biden’s 2002 vote for war in Iraq. It’s not wrong, but it overlooks some important contextual facts. In class I told the story of how the bipartisan Senate leadership in 2001 rejected the White House proposed language for an AUMF because it seemed like a blank check for a war on terror.Instead, the Senate passed a bill limited to those connected to the 9/11 attacks, and then adjourned. The House felt sandbagged, forced to accept the Senate language in order to avoid a long delay. A year later, seeking the AUMF for war in Iraq, the WH cut a deal with the House Democratic leader to act before the Senate, thus preventing Senators Biden and Lugar from winning support for their conditional AUMF. In voting for the Iraq war, ambitious politicians like Biden, Kerry, & Hilary Clinton also remembered the purgatory 47 Senate Democrats faced in 1992 after voting against the 1991 Gulf War. They chose toughness over caution.
-Jim Steinberg, who was a senior official during many of the decisions he recounts in a new article, looks at US-China policy since 1989.
– WaPo says Trump has talked of killing Suleimani since the early weeks of his administration. NBC says Trump gave conditional authorization for the killing last summer.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks|January 13-19
Is an International Financial Commission Libya’s Last Hope? | January 13, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | The Middle East Institute 1763 N Street NW Washington DC | Register Here
As the battle for Tripoli rages into its ninth month and Libya’s struggle for post-Qadhafi succession enters its ninth year, international peace-making efforts remain stymied. The root causes of the country’s malaise, its flawed economic institutions and the lack of a social contract, remain unaddressed. Thus, Libya’s economic structures will continue to impede peace building or attempts to end foreign interference unless Libya’s semi-sovereign economic institutions are forced to become more transparent. This can be achieved via a Libyan-led International Financial Commission empowered with the tools to compel transparency and reform Libya’s institutions and dysfunctional incentive structure.
The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a public panel featuring the UN’s Deputy Special Representative for Political Affairs in Libya Stephanie Williams, former Commercial Officer at the US Embassy in Tripoli Nate Mason, and former US Special Envoy to Libya Jonathan Winer. They will be participating in a discussion launching MEI Non-Resident Fellow Jason Pack’s paper, “An International Financial Commission is Libya’s Last Hope.” The event will present research on the roots of Libya’s unique forms of dysfunction and examine how the Berlin Conference process and pending Congressional legislation (the 2019 Libya Stabilization Act) can be used as correctives and incentives to move towards an economic-based approach to peacemaking in Libya.
Speakers:
Nate Mason is currently a consultant based in Washington DC, Chief of Operations and Executive Director of Strategic Advisory Solutions International, and Partner on EyeOnISISinLibya.com.
Jason Pack is a consultant, author, and commentator with over two decades of experience living in, and working on, the Middle East.
Stephanie Williams currently serves as Deputy Special Representative for Political Affairs in Libya, United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).
Jonathan Winer (moderator) has been the United States Special Envoy for Libya, the deputy assistant secretary of state for international law enforcement, and counsel to United States Senator John Kerry.
What Do Tunisians Expect from Their New Government? | January 14, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW Washington DC | Register Here
As Tunisia marks the ninth anniversary of its revolution, the country faces a new set of challenges. A new president and parliament, elected with the promise to fight corruption and improve the lives of the Tunisian people, must find a way to address the longstanding social and economic grievances that its predecessors have failed to remedy.
The Carnegie Middle East Program is pleased to host a discussion with three young Tunisian activists who will explain what Tunisians are expecting from their new leaders and what will happen if those expectations are not met. Fellow Sarah Yerkes will moderate the discussion. A light lunch will be served.
Speakers:
Sarah Yerkes is a fellow in the Carnegie Middle East Program.
Amir Ben Ameur is a social activist who advocates for youth development and democracy
Aymen Abderrahmen is a program coordinator in the Leadership Division in IREX.
Oumayma Ben Abdallah is a human rights researcher and Tunisia analyst.
The Future Army in Great-Power Competition | January 14, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:15 AM | Atlantic Council 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor Washington DC | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council for a public conversation on “The Future Army in Great-Power Competition” with General James C. McConville, Chief of Staff of the United States Army, as part of the Atlantic Council’s Commanders Series. The event will take place on Tuesday, January 14, 2020 from 9:00 a.m. to 10:15 a.m. at the Atlantic Council’s Headquarters (1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, West Tower Elevators, Washington, DC 20005).
Since releasing the 2017 National Security Strategy and the 2018 National Defense Strategy, the United States has shifted its geopolitical focus toward renewed great-power competition with Russia and China. However, this reassessment of national security threats, while significant, is only the first step. The maintenance of robust deterrence and defense in the coming decades will demand strategic planning, critical investments, and intelligent innovations now. Moreover, the United States must continue to confront the long-term threat posed by near-peer adversaries while navigating a variety of difficult crises and scenarios, such as current tensions with Iran. Accordingly, the US Army and the other armed services have been modernizing their capabilities and adapting their operational concepts in order to define their roles in future warfare.
As the Army’s 40th chief of staff, General McConville will join us to discuss how the Army is preparing itself for the future of geostrategic competition and military conflict. This conversation will focus on the Army’s perception of the Russian and Chinese threats, its development of Multi-Domain Operations doctrine, and its modernization efforts to incorporate new technologies.
The Commanders Series is the Atlantic Council’s flagship speakers’ forum for senior military and defense leaders. The series provides a platform to discuss current strategic issues with an impressive audience drawn from across Washington’s policy community, including think tanks, media, industry, embassies, and the US government. In 2019, the Atlantic Council hosted then-Secretary of the Army Mark T. Esper, then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph F. Dunford, and then-Chief of Naval Operations John M. Richardson.
Reflections on 25 Years of US Policy in the Middle East | January 15, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 1:00 PM | Atlantic Council 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor Washington DC | Register Here
Join us on Wednesday, January 15, from 11:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. for a conversation with Nabeel Khoury, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and twenty-five-year member of the US Foreign Service, and Thomas L. Friedman, foreign affairs columnist for The New York Times.
The past three decades have seen massive US military and diplomatic engagements in the Middle East and events that will continue to shape the world for years to come. Why has the security environment changed so drastically for the United States in the region, and what lessons should be drawn? What does US diplomacy look like on the ground in the region right now, and are we in a position to meet our foreign policy and national security goals?
Nabeel will draw on reflections from his recently published book, Bunker Diplomacy: An Arab-American in the U.S. Foreign Service: Personal Reflections on 25 Years of US Policy in the Middle East.
The Prospects for U.S.-Russia Arms Control | January 15, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | Center for Strategic International Studies 2nd Floor Conference Room 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW Washington DC | Register Here
With the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and an unclear future for New START, U.S.-Russian arms control is in dire condition. Some experts in both capitals question the feasibility or necessity of further bilateral arms control. However, any U.S. and Russian administration will face the task of managing its own arsenal and relations with a nuclear armed competitor, which requires some level of arms control—formal or informal. How do Moscow and Washington approach this task? What are most immediate concerns and what could be on the table in the future negotiations? How possible is trilateral arms control with China? What are the arms control mechanisms short of formal treaties? Andrey Baklitskiy, visiting fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Program, will present his analysis of the different options for U.S.-Russian arms control.
The event will be webcast live from this page.
Speakers:
Andrey Baklitskiy, Visiting Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
Jeffrey Mankoff, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
Impacts and Implications of the 2020 Taiwanese Elections | January 16, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Brookings Institute Falk Auditorium 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Washington DC | Register Here
Taiwan held elections for the president and all the members of the Legislative Yuan on January 11. Although President Tsai Ing-wen had maintained a strong lead in the polls, there were questions about the reliability of some polls. Moreover, the outcome of the legislative elections was very uncertain. China, which has long made clear its dislike of the Tsai administration, had predictably intensified its pressure campaign against Tsai and Taiwan, hoping to impact these elections. In the end, Tsai Ing-wen was reelected, and the Democratic Progressive Party maintained its majority in the Legislative Yuan.
On January 16, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution will host a panel of policy experts for a discussion on the results of the elections and their implications for domestic governance in Taiwan, relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, U.S.-Taiwan relations, and other policy implications.
Speakers
Jacques deLisle is the Director of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute
Alexander C. Huang is the Director of the Institute of Strategic Studies and the Institute of American Studies
Thomas Wright is the Director of the Center on the United States and Europe and Senior Fellow in Project on International Order and Strategy at the Brookings Institute.
Yun Sun is a nonresident Fellow with the Africa Growth Initiative. She also serves as co-director of the East Asia Program, and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center.
Richard C. Bush (moderator) is the Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute and holds the Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies in the Center for East Asia Policy Studies (CEAP).
Reconstruction in the Civil War Zones of the Middle East | January 16, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | The Middle East Institute 1763 N Street NW Washington DC | Register Here
The civil wars in the Middle East have taken a massive humanitarian toll on Syrian, Iraqi, Yemeni and Libyan societies, and have disrupted the regional political and economic order of this already tumultuous region.
The Middle East Institute is pleased to invite you to a panel discussion addressing ways for mitigating the effects of these violent and destructive conflicts. The panel will showcase the findings of the recently released book Fractured Stability: War Economies and Reconstruction in the MENA, edited by former diplomat Luigi Narbone, and contributed to by Professor Steven Heydemann. The panel discussion will answer questions such as, what does it mean to exit a civil war conflict economy? What is required to restore economic and political normalcy in countries in civil war? The panel will also address how the rebuilding of hard infrastructure is necessary, but that equally important for reaching and sustaining stability is the forging of new social contracts and establishment of new political and economic norms. Another area that will be explored is how changes at the regional and international levels have influenced possibilities for post-conflict economic reconstruction, and what regional and international preconditions are necessary for a successful reconstruction and transition to peace.
The Middle East Institute has established itself as a thought leader in providing a better understanding of the causes of these conflicts. It has just launched a book “Escaping the Conflict Trap: Toward Ending Civil Wars in the Middle East“, and participated in the World Bank’s Building For Peace project. Stay tuned for announcements of future MEI sponsored events that offer important findings about both the underlying causes and possible remedies for these civil conflicts.
Speakers:
Ross Harrison is a senior fellow at The Middle East Institute and is on the faculty of the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
Steven Heydemann is a nonresident Senior Fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution.
Luigi Narbone is Director of the Middle East Directions Programme at the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies at the European University Institute.
Francesca Recanatini is a Senior Public Sector Specialist in Governance at the World Bank
Paul Salem (moderator) is President of the Middle East Institute
Deconstructing the Soleimani Killing: Implications for the Region and Beyond | January 16, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Arab Center Washington DC, National Press Club First Amendment Lounge 529 14th St., NW Washington DC | Register Here
Speakers
Daniel Brumberg is an Associate Professor of Government at Georgetown University and a nonresident Senior Fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC
Abbas Kadhim is the Director of Iraq Initiative and Resident Senior Fellow of Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council
Negar Mortazavi is an Iranian-American journalist and media analyst for BBC, Al Jazeera, and CGTN
Reframing the U.S.- Pakistan Strategic Relationship: A Conversation with Foreign Minister Qureshi | January 16, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:30 PM | Center for Strategic International Studies 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW Washington DC | Register Here
For the last 20 years, the relationship between Pakistan and the United States has been refracted through the prism of Afghanistan.
Pakistan and the U.S. have a shared interest in working toward peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan and the U.S. have an opportunity to reframe the bilateral relationship. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House last July is seen as a turning point for the two countries after a difficult period.
There is a good case for a broader Pakistan-U.S. partnership: Pakistan is the fifth most populous country in the world, located in a central geographic part of the world, has the largest percentage of young people globally, and is the native land of over one million affluent and politically engaged Pakistani Americans. There is tremendous investment opportunity for U.S. companies in Pakistan’s enormous energy, agriculture, and tourism sectors.
Please join us for a conversation with Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi of Pakistan as he lays out his vision for the Pakistan-U.S. relationship.
The event will be webcast live from this page.
Speakers
John J. Hamre is President and CEO of CSIS
Daniel F. Runde is the Senior Vice President and Director of the Project on Prosperity and Development.
Seth G. Jones is the Director of the Transnational Threats Project and Senior Adviser to the International Security Program.
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Stevenson’s army, January 13
Too good to wait until tomorrow: Prof. Karlin and two other national security professionals have co-authored an article criticizing the interagency staff work (or whatever there was) to producing the option of killing Suleimani. I strongly agree with their call for a regular, disciplined process to improve policymaking.
A group of former press secretaries have co-signed a call for regular news conferences at the White House and other departments as necessary for democracy. I share their dismay at Trump administration avoidance of the nonpartisan news media.
The Hill reports that Congress is struggling to sort out rules for cyber warfare.
Already lawmakers have done good work in creating the bipartisan Cyberspace Solarium Commission. CFR had a good conference on cyber issues last week.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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