Day: February 7, 2020
Rivals who de-escalate
Kim Ghattas’ new book, Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Forty-Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Collective Memory in the Middle East, served as the centerpiece for a Carnegie Endowment of International Peace event on February 5. David Ignatius, a foreign affairs columnist for the Washington Post and author of eight spy novels, moderated the discussion about Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Forty Year Rivalry with Ghattas, author and Foreign Policy columnist.
Ghattas places her observations of the destruction of culture and artifacts that occurred during ISIS rampages in a broader context of other nearby regimes’ that profess puritanical thinking and try to control culture. This led her to examine a pivotal year in the Middle East, 1979. Ghattas argues that the Islamic Revolution served as the fulcrum for the Saudi Arabia-Iran rivalry. She underlines that prior to the Revolution, Iran and Saudi Arabia were seen as the two pillars of the Middle East often working towards containing socialism and communism. But post-Revolution, the two nations became great rivals.
Ghattas spoke about three transformative events from 1979:
- The Rippling Effects of the Iranian Revolution: Instead of discussing the specifics of the Iranian Revolution inside Iran, Ghattas spoke on the realities of 1979 inside the Kingdom, explicitly the Siege of Mecca. While there remains little evidence that the Siege was directly inspired by Iran, it can be extrapolated that the effects of the Revolution rippled through to Mecca for the two weeks following November 20, 1979. Both the Revolution and the Siege incorporated conservative applications of Sharia law. Ghattas notes that before these events, Saudi Arabia was on a more progressive path, with the opening of movie theaters and increased liberties for women. Post-Siege and Revolution, the regime became more and more repressive.
- The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: The Soviet invasion led to the creation of the Mujahideen, supported by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan (alongside the CIA). The Kingdom and Pakistan used the situation to promote the idea of jihad to defend the faith from the ‘faithless communists.’ Ghattas and Ignatius both noted that Khashoggi was embedded and reporting in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion. Khashoggi reported that the most radical fighting groups were receiving the most money and support from Saudi clerics. Khashoggi spoke out against Prince (now King) Salman, alleging that he privileged Salafists.
- Disappearance of Musa al-Sadr: al-Sadr was a Shia leader who was living in Lebanon. Ghattas alleged that he had spoken with the Shah and warned him of Khomeini’s potential. Al-Sadr traveled to Libya in 1978 and never returned. It is widely understood that he would have posed a threat to Khomeini during the ascent to power or during the post-Shah period.
After focusing on 1979, Ghattas shifted to discuss the current climate in Iran, 40 years post-Revolution. Iran is still in a period of major protests, which have occurred in 2009, 2017, 2018, 2019, and today, in 2020. The Iranian public is continuing to speak out against the government. Despite this, there is no sign of the regime giving up or falling any time soon.
Ghattas ended with the comment that neither Iran or Saudi Arabia wants to go to war with the other. While they continue to be hostile rivals, they often find ways through talks and third parties to de-escalate. The lack of response to the drone strike against two Saudi oil processing facilities in September 2019 serves as an example of the Kingdom and Iran’s ability to de-escalate.
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Stevenson’s army, February 7
There are reports this morning that President Trump may fire his acting chief of staff as well as NSC staffer LtCol Vindman.
The Atlantic has a detailed article on how the Trump campaign has mastered digital advertising,leaving the Democrats far behind. There’s a lot of disinformation, but Trump voters remain loyal. I was struck by the reporter’s talk with a voter in Mississippi:“He tells you what you want to hear,” Willnow said. “And I don’t know if it’s true or not—but it sounds good, so fuck it.”
NYT has a good collection of Democratic candidate views on several foreign policy questions.
NYT also reports that Iraqi officials doubt that the attack that killed an American contractor and sparked retaliatory raids by US and Iran was launched by Iran. More likely, they say, it was ISIS.
AP says Iraq is deepening ties with Russia.
Dan Drezner warns the dollar may lose its primacy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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