Month: February 2020
Peace Picks | February 24 – 28
After Suleimani: Crisis, Opportunity, and the Future of the Gulf | February 24, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 12:15 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
The killing of Gen. Qassem Suleimani in January 2020 sent conflicting signals about the depth of U.S. engagement in the Gulf. The United States seems intent to diminish its presence while keeping an active hand in regional affairs. Meanwhile, Russia and China are exploring ways to reshape their own presence in the region.
Please join the CSIS Middle East Program for a conference to examine the Gulf region in the wake of General Qassem Suleimani’s death. Two expert panels will explore security threats and new opportunities for diplomacy in the region. General Joseph L. Votel will then deliver a keynote address on Great Power competition in the Gulf, followed by a Q&A moderated by Jon B. Alterman, senior vice president, Zbigniew Brzezinski chair in global security and geostrategy, and director of the Middle East Program.
Speakers:
General Joseph L. Votel, President and CEO, Business Executives for National Security
Ambassador Anne Patterson, Former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, U.S. State Department
The Honorable John McLaughlin, Distinguished Practitioner in Residence, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
Dr. Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group
Ambassador Douglas Silliman, President, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
The Honorable Christine Wormuth, Director, International Security and Defense Policy Center, RAND Corporation
Jon B. Alterman, Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinkski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program
Solving the Civil War in Libya | February 24, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM| Brookings Institute | Register Here
With armed factions vying for control of the country’s strategic assets and United Nations-facilitated negotiations leading nowhere, 2020 has seen no improvement to the turmoil that has plagued Libya since the ouster of Moammar al-Gadhafi in 2011.While the self-styled Libyan National Army of General Khalifa Haftar continues, unsuccessfully, to try to take over the country militarily, the internationally-recognized government of Prime Minister Fayez Serraj in Tripoli, propped up by militias opposed to Haftar, retains control over major institutions and sources of national wealth. With the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt backing Haftar, and Turkey and Qatar backing Serraj, weapons of increasing sophistication are flowing to opposing sides, pitting foreign powers against each other and violating U.N. sanctions.
Meanwhile, facing a stagnant economy and constant threats to infrastructure, the Libyan people are caught in the crossfire of this protracted jockeying. Unchecked migration and the threat of extremist groups taking hold in the country’s contested spaces likewise make Libya’s internal situation a security concern for Europe and the United States. Solving the civil war in Libya would restore needed stability to a strategically vital part of northern Africa, while laying the groundwork for the prosperity of the Libyan people.
On February 24, the Brookings Institution will host an event to discuss these issues. Moderated by Michael O’Hanlon, the conversation will feature Federica Saini Fasanotti, whose new book “Vincere: The Italian Royal Army’s Counterinsurgency Operations in Africa 1922-1940” provides timely and salient insight into the history of warfare in Libya.
Speakers:
Michael E. O’Hanlon (moderator), Senior Fellow and Director of Research for Foreign Policy at Brookings Institute
Federica Saini Fasanotti, Nonresident Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy and Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence at Brookings Institute.
Karim Mezran, Resident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council
Turkey Forging Its Own Path: Looking at the Changing US – Turkish Relations | February 24, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM | Middle East Institute| Register Here
Turkey’s relations with the West are at an all-time low. Scarcely a day passes without a report or headline on the front page of leading newspapers questioning Turkey’s reliability as a Western ally. The widening gulf between Turkey and the West and the increasing number and the growing complexity of the issues over which the two sides differ make it imperative to understand the dynamics of the relationship between Turkey and the West. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a launch event for Dr. Oya Dursun-Özkanca’s new book, Turkey–West Relations: The Politics of Intra-alliance Opposition. In her book, Dr. Dursun-Özkanca seeks to explain how and why Turkey increasingly goes its own way within the Western alliance and grows further apart from its traditional Western allies.
Please join us for a discussion on US-Turkish relations with Dr. Dursun-Özkanca and the director of MEI’s Center for Turkish Studies Dr. Gönül Tol. Books will be available for purchase at the event.
Speakers:
Oya Durson- Özkanca is the endowed chair of International Studies and Professor of Political Science at Elizabethtown College.
Gönül Tol, moderator, is the founding director of The Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies.
Colombian Human Rights Leaders Protect Their Peace | February 24, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here | Will be live webcast
Since the agreement with the FARC was signed in 2016, human rights leaders in Colombia have been operating in an increasingly high-risk climate. Just last month, the U.N. released a report detailing the elevated numbers of threats and assassinations targeting human rights leaders throughout 2019—particularly in rural areas and against those advocating on behalf of women and ethnic groups such as indigenous and Afro-descendant communities. But despite this growing security risk, the winners of the 2019 National Prize for the Defense of Human Rights have worked tirelessly to advance and protect core tenets of the peace agreement in their communities.
Organized by the Swedish humanitarian agency Diakonia and the ACT Church of Sweden, the Colombian National Prize for the Defense of Human Rights honors social leaders as they continue to defend their communities’ right to security, land, education, health, reparations, and access to justice under the 2016 deal.
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace,
the Washington Office on Latin America, and the Latin America Working Group
Education Fund as we host the winners of the 2019 awards. These leaders will
discuss how they engage diverse social sectors as well as local, regional, and
national institutions and authorities to promote peace and ensure democratic
spaces for civic engagement.
The event will be streamed live. To follow the conversation on Twitter, use
#ColombiaPeaceForum.
Speakers:
Clemencia Carabali, 2019 National Prize for the Defense of Human Rights “Defender of the Year” Award Winner, Director, Association of Afro-descendant Women of Norte del Cauca
Ricardo Esquivia, 2019 National Prize for the Defense of Human Rights “Lifetime Defender” Award Winner; Executive Director, Sembrandopaz
Lisa Haugaard, Co-Director, Latin America Working Group Education Fund; Juror, National Prize for the Defense of Human Rights
Annye Páez Martinez, Representative of the Rural Farms Association of Cimitarra River Valley; 2019 National Prize for the Collective Experience or Process of the Year
Marco Romero, 2019 National Prize for the Defense of Human Rights “Collective Process of the Year” Award Winner, Director, Consultoría para los Derechos Humanos y e Desplazamiento
Gimena Sánchez- Garzoli, Director for the Andes, Washington Office on Latin America; Juror, National Prize for the Defense of Human Rights
Keith Mines (moderator), Senior Advisor, Colombia and Venezuela, U.S. Institute of Peace
After Parliamentary Elections: Iran’s Political Future | February 26, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | Woodrow Wilson Center | Register Here | Event will be live webcast
Iran’s parliamentary elections are set for February 21, 2020. Reformists won a plurality in 2016, but the balance of power is up for grabs after the failure of the reformists’ domestic and foreign agendas, growing discontent reflected in multiple rounds of protests, the tightening security crackdown, and economic woes spawned by the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign.
Speakers:
Robin Wright (moderator), USIP- Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow, Journalist and author of eight books, and contributing writer for The New Yorker
Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group
Ariane Tabatabai, Visiting Assistant Professor, Georgetown University
Kenneth Katzman, Specialist, Middle East Affairs, Congressional Research Service
What’s in store for U.S. – Turkey relations in 2020? | February 27, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Turkish Heritage Organization | Register Here
Speakers:
Jennifer Miel, Executive Director, U.S.- Turkey Business Council, U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Col. Richard Outzen, Senior Advisor for Syrian Engagement, U.S. Department of State
Mark Kimmit, Brigadier General (U.S. Army, ret)
José Andrés on Humanitarian Relief | February 27, 2020 | 6:00 PM – 7:00 PM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
For a decade, Chef José Andrés and his nonprofit, World Central Kitchen, have been on the humanitarian frontlines. What have they learned? And how can the humanitarian sector renew and revitalize itself for the coming decade?
Carnegie President Bill Burns will host Chef Andrés for a wide-ranging and timely conversation, part of The Morton and Sheppie Abramowitz Lecture Series. The series honors former Carnegie president Morton Abramowitz and his wife Sheppie, two renowned leaders in the world of humanitarian diplomacy, and highlights prominent thinkers and doers who follow in their extraordinary footsteps. NPR’s Nurith Aizenman will moderate.
The event will be preceded by a light reception from 5:00 to 6:00 p.m.
Speakers:
José Andrés is an internationally-recognized culinary innovator, New York Times bestselling author, educator, television personality, humanitarian, and chef/owner of ThinkFoodGroup. In 2010, he founded World Central Kitchen, a nonprofit that provides smart solutions to end hunger He was named one of Time Magazine’s 100 Most Influential People in both 2012 and 2018, and awareded Outstanding Chef and Humanitarian of the Year by the James Beard Foundation.
Nurith Aizenmanis NPR’s correspondent for global health and development. She reports on disease outbreaks, natural and manmade disasters, social and economic challenges, and innovative efforts to overcome them. Her reports can be heard on the NPR News programs Morning Edition and All Things Considered.
William J. Burns is president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as U.S. deputy secretary of state. He is the author of The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal.
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Stevenson’s army, February 21
SecState Pompeo announces start of violence reduction week leading to a Taliban deal.
WSJ reports more cooperation on Iran sanctions.
Both NYT and WaPo report DNI was fired after Trump learned his office had told House Intelligence Committee that Russia is already interfering in US 2020 elections in support of Trump.
Big study of nonvoters shows they mirror the voting population.
Lawfare says secret international agreements are still not being reported as required by law.
In further proof of my argument that some people die only in the Times, which reports deaths of interesting people, here’s the story about the man who invented computer cutting and pasting.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A non-election
Iran’s majles (parliament) elections are tomorrow. They are not free or fair, despite the extraordinary number of candidates, since the Guardian Council gets to determine who runs. It has nixed something like 60% of the candidates, most of them relative moderates or reformists. Even those prevented from running are people loyal to the Islamic Republic. None are revolutionaries, only reformers. Serious opponents of the regime are more likely to be found in the streets and in their own homes.
The outcome of the election is pre-determined: unlike 2016, conservatives will be in the majority. Supreme Leader Khamenei has been anxious to avoid another de facto vote against him, so he has stacked the deck. Any presence of reformers in the new majles will be a defeat for him. Turnout will be more interesting to watch than results. It can be hard to fake. It was around 60% the last time around. If it comes in under 50% or so, it should be interpreted as a vote of no-confidence.
It would be a mistake however to conclude even then that the regime is necessarily about to crumble, collapse, or crack. There is no sign of dissent in the security forces, who have been amply deployed to clamp down on any election-day disturbances. Protests have adopted anti-regime slogans, but they remain mostly focused on economic issues, made severe in part by US re-imposition of sanctions.
That and the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have hardened the regime significantly. The conservatives who argued that the US couldn’t be trusted to implement the nuclear deal have been proven correct. Khamenei has tried to rally Iranians around a flag of resistance. The US assassination of Qasem Soleimani has made that easier. There has been no serious difficulty restricting the candidates. The Supreme Leader will emerge from these elections with a far more compliant and conservative majles, and good prospects for conservatives in next year’s presidential election. For details on the personalities and geography involved, see this primer.
It is beyond me how this hardening of the Iranian regime serves US interests. It incentivizes Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, for which financing will always be available. Even a collapse of the regime would pose enormous difficulties for Washington, as Iran is a multiethnic state whose Kurds, Arabs, Azeris, Balochis and others would likely seek at least the self-governance they have been denied in the Islamic Republic, if not outright independence or union with neighboring states. Iran is a country of more than 80 million people. The results could be catastrophic.
It’s a non-election, but there should be no joy in that.
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Stevenson’s army, February 20
– More details on John Rood’s firing. NYT links it to policy disagreements with the WH; FP says he had a toxic work environment and many staff left.
– Amb. to Germany Richard Grenell has been named acting DNI. His major qualification for the job is fierce public loyalty to the president. He can only serve until mid-September, and would have to step down immediately if formally nominated for the job [as SecDef Esper had to do].
This lets me remind you of two of the most consequential but little known laws — the Vacancy Act and the Administrative Procedures Act. The former limits the use of non-Senate confirmed officials and people in “acting” positions. The latter prevents replacement of older executive orders and regulations without a lengthy and detailed process. The new team can’t just say, we want to change.
-Georgetown had a special event featuring former Amb. to Ukraine Yavonovitch.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Bottom of the barrel
Richard Grenell, Ambassador to Germany and impresario of the recent Belgrade/Pristina agreements that are expected to open air and train service between the two cities, is pulling up stakes. He is headed back to Washington to be Director of National Intelligence, the leader if not the boss of 17 US intelligence agencies with a budget of $50 billion. He will also be the principal intelligence advisor to the President.
This is extraordinary. A gay Evangelical and white nationalist, he is a “communications” (i.e. PR) guy with no intelligence experience who has accumulated a dismal record for offending Berlin. The ink on his Pristina/Belgrade agreements isn’t even dry. I won’t be surprised if they evaporate before effective implementation. Grenell pushed himself into the Balkans not to fix anything but rather in a blatant effort to catch the President’s eye by delivering some sort of international triumph. As soon as he had even a glint of that, off he goes to bigger and better things.
A lot bigger and better. President Trump has been unhappy with the intelligence community because it concluded that Russia interfered with the 2016 election and will do it again if not stopped. Trump has also been anxious to get evidence of Ukrainian interference in the election and dirt on former Vice President Biden and his son from Ukraine, efforts that resulted in impeachment. Had the intelligence community delivered what he wanted in Ukraine, Trump would not have needed Rudy Giuliani’s help.
The DNI job has been in “acting” hands since August. It is being reported that Grenell will also be acting. That avoids Senate confirmation, which could be difficult for Grenell. He was confirmed as Ambassador to Germany by a dismal vote of only 56-42. Acting status also gives the President stronger leverage over appointees. We can expect Grenell to toady 100% to Trump’s whims, helping him to parry intelligence community judgments that differ from the President’s predilections. This appointment–like Barr at Justice, Pompeo at State, and O’Brien at the National Security Council–is intended to solidify political control over key government agencies and ensure that they toe Trump’s erratic lines, no matter how far they stray from reality.
I suppose there have been more harmful appointments in this Administration, but this one is destined to be high on that scale. Grenell is a spinmeister, not a truth teller. The intelligence community will find itself in not only incompetent but ill-meaning hands. This would be the bottom of the barrel, if the barrel had a bottom.
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Stevenson’s army, February 19
– Background on Trump visit to India.
– CNN says USD/P Rood is being forced out.
-IG finds waste in US support for Syrian forces.
– Congress debates Libya policy.
– A smart idea for how to prepare for future war better.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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