Month: February 2020
Disgraceful could become unforgivable
Any president is entitled to the staff he wants in the White House. Getting rid of Lieutenant Colonel Vindman and Ambassador Sondland lies well within President Trump’s prerogatives. The President has to have confidence in his staff and in his ambassadors, who are his personal representatives.
But marching Vindman out of the National Security Council (NSC) unceremoniously, and firing his twin brother at the same time, is not the normal procedure. The President is sending a message: absolute loyalty Trumps expertise and legal obligations, including the obligation to testify in Congress when subpoenaed. Ambassador to the EU Sondland can’t be described as having any expertise other than direct knowledge of the President’s wrongdoing in Ukraine, but he too testified when subpoenaed over the President’s objection.
What Trump is doing is trying to remake the US government in his own image. This requires that he dismantle the merit-based professional staffing not only at the NSC but also at US embassies, the Justice Department, the FBI, and other institutions that might dissent from his use of government institutions for his personal political and financial benefit. He has already reined in the Secret Service, which is enjoying $650 per night rooms at his resorts, and the General Services Administration, which has turned a blind eye to his exploitation of the lease on his government-owned Washington DC hotel.
The Republican Senators who acquitted Trump last week of two impeachment charges know perfectly well what he is doing. Were a Democratic President to try one-tenth of Trump’s shenanigans, they would be screaming bloody murder. So far only two Republicans have opted for dissent: Representative Amash of Michigan has left the GOP to become an independent and Senator Romney of Utah voted to convict Trump of abusing power in his effort to extract personal political benefit from Ukraine. They deserve a lot of credit.
The Democrats should welcome their futile but dignified moves with open arms. That won’t be possible if Bernie Sanders is their nominee for the presidency, as his commitment to socialism will make him unwelcoming and also scare them off. But pretty much any of the other potential candidates should be preparing to make common cause against Trump with the likes of Amash and Romney, especially if more appear on the horizon before November. I don’t see any bar to tacking towards the middle for Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, or the lesser lights. Doing so would give the Democratic nominee a real leg up in several contested states.
Sanders has the advantage of enormous enthusiasm among young people, many of whom say they won’t vote for anyone else in the Democratic race. He didn’t however turn out a flood of supporters in Iowa, where a tie with Buttigieg was a much bigger achievement for the former mayor of South Bend than for the Senator from Vermont. Sanders is likely however to do much better in New Hampshire next week.
After that, the key is Super Tuesday, March 3, when 14 states and Democrats Abroad hold their primaries. Sanders is looking good in California, with Biden and Warren fading there. It alone names 415 pledged delegates to the Democratic Convention, out of 1990 needed to win on the first ballot. Former New York City Mayor Bloomberg will be competing on Super Tuesday, which may split moderate votes further. There are too many Democratic candidates in that space. Sanders is enjoying the kind of primary campaign that gave Trump the Republican nomination in 2016: the moderates on the right were fragmented then as they are now on the left.
I don’t say Sanders can’t win, but I admit it is hard to picture how suburban college-educated women and black churchgoers, two vital constituencies for the Democrats, will turn out for a self-declared socialist. Four more years of Trump’s efforts to dismantle government institutions and turn them to his personal purposes would be disastrous for the United States and the world. Disgraceful would then be unforgivable.
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Stevenson’s army, February 8
-SAIS grad John Gans laments the “Trumpification” of the NSC staff.
– Former DHS head Jeh Johnson laments the breakdown between branches over the war power.
– Politico sees hope in Pompeo’s deputy.
-Academic notes armed groups are now hiring DC lobbyists.
– Just in case, Lawfare explains the laws about quarantines.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Accountability now
During Syria’s conflict, the Assad regime has continued committing many war crimes. Although de-escalation zones were established to mitigate conflict violence, the number of displaced Syrians increased. On February 5, Arab Center Washington DC hosted a panel discussion and a book review on the topic of Accountability in Syria: Achieving Transitional Justice in a Postconflict Society. The discussion involved three speakers: Radwan Ziadeh, a senior fellow for the Arab Center Washington DC, Mai El-Sadany, the legal and judicial director at the Tahrir Institute, and Mohammad Alaa Ghanem, a Syrian academic and pro-democracy campaigner.
War crimes
Ziadeh noted that because justice and accountability are left out in the Geneva and Astana talks, he wrote the book Accountability in Syria to call for attention to war atrocities and raise the issue of accountability. He listed five crimes that the Assad regime has committed in the last eight years.
- Use of air force: Opposition areas have been exposed to heavy, systematic, widespread, and indiscriminate bombing. While only 1% of victims killed by barrel bombs are opposition but 99% of victims are civilians. Other governments have failed to prevent the Syrian government from utilizing barrel bombs.
- Use of prohibited weapons: The Assad regime has utilized prohibited chemical weapons 37 times.
- Siege: Half a million of Syrians live besieged by Assad’s “surrender or starve” strategy.
- Torture and sectarian crimes: The regime carried out systematic torture at its secret prisons.
- Forced displacement: Displacement aims to remove people who have been disloyal. Forced displacement induces both the demographic change and the flight of Syrian refugees.
Forced displacement
Ghanem says that ceasefires, such as the Idlib and Daraa de-escalation zones, are a prelude to liquidation. Political analysts in Washington misunderstood ceasefires, which they thought would constitute a win-win solution that could empower local communities. Instead, ceasefires emboldened and benefited Assad’s regime, which used them to induce demographic change. He presented three purposes of ceasefires:
- Ceasefires have helped the Assad regime to conquer more territories by setting up a 1-2 year de-escalation period to relinquish oppositions’ heavy weapons and evacuate fighters.
- Ceasefires serve to relieve shortage of Assad’s manpower by freeing up regime resources to focus on other priority areas.
- Ceasefires provide an illusion of political process by designating areas for reconstruction while permitting the regime to commit systematic sectarian cleansing.
Remedies
El-Sadany argues that it’s time for justice now. Three tools are available for accountability:
- Documentation: Civil society, journalists, and lawyers should act together to preserve history and contribute to truth. For example, the New York Times utilizes open source investigation.
- UN Mechanisms: The United Nations has disappointed Syrians because of UN Security Council vetoes and the failure to make a referral to International Criminal Court (ICC). However, the UN Human Rights Council’s commissions of inquiry serves accountability by fact-finding and investigating crimes and perpetrators. In addition, the International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism (IIIM) was created to prepare files and assist the investigation and prosecution of crimes.
- Prosecution outside Syria: Syria is not a party to the Rome Statute and the UNSC has failed to refer its crimes to the ICC. But prosecution in other states is still possible.
El-Sadany proposes that the international community needs to amend, strengthen, and improve accountability mechanisms. Advocates should lobby their governments for more funding for accountability efforts and improved human rights laws. Lawyers should translate materials, especially on universal jurisdiction, into Arabic to reach Syrian victims and civil society.
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Rivals who de-escalate
Kim Ghattas’ new book, Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Forty-Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Collective Memory in the Middle East, served as the centerpiece for a Carnegie Endowment of International Peace event on February 5. David Ignatius, a foreign affairs columnist for the Washington Post and author of eight spy novels, moderated the discussion about Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Forty Year Rivalry with Ghattas, author and Foreign Policy columnist.
Ghattas places her observations of the destruction of culture and artifacts that occurred during ISIS rampages in a broader context of other nearby regimes’ that profess puritanical thinking and try to control culture. This led her to examine a pivotal year in the Middle East, 1979. Ghattas argues that the Islamic Revolution served as the fulcrum for the Saudi Arabia-Iran rivalry. She underlines that prior to the Revolution, Iran and Saudi Arabia were seen as the two pillars of the Middle East often working towards containing socialism and communism. But post-Revolution, the two nations became great rivals.
Ghattas spoke about three transformative events from 1979:
- The Rippling Effects of the Iranian Revolution: Instead of discussing the specifics of the Iranian Revolution inside Iran, Ghattas spoke on the realities of 1979 inside the Kingdom, explicitly the Siege of Mecca. While there remains little evidence that the Siege was directly inspired by Iran, it can be extrapolated that the effects of the Revolution rippled through to Mecca for the two weeks following November 20, 1979. Both the Revolution and the Siege incorporated conservative applications of Sharia law. Ghattas notes that before these events, Saudi Arabia was on a more progressive path, with the opening of movie theaters and increased liberties for women. Post-Siege and Revolution, the regime became more and more repressive.
- The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: The Soviet invasion led to the creation of the Mujahideen, supported by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan (alongside the CIA). The Kingdom and Pakistan used the situation to promote the idea of jihad to defend the faith from the ‘faithless communists.’ Ghattas and Ignatius both noted that Khashoggi was embedded and reporting in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion. Khashoggi reported that the most radical fighting groups were receiving the most money and support from Saudi clerics. Khashoggi spoke out against Prince (now King) Salman, alleging that he privileged Salafists.
- Disappearance of Musa al-Sadr: al-Sadr was a Shia leader who was living in Lebanon. Ghattas alleged that he had spoken with the Shah and warned him of Khomeini’s potential. Al-Sadr traveled to Libya in 1978 and never returned. It is widely understood that he would have posed a threat to Khomeini during the ascent to power or during the post-Shah period.
After focusing on 1979, Ghattas shifted to discuss the current climate in Iran, 40 years post-Revolution. Iran is still in a period of major protests, which have occurred in 2009, 2017, 2018, 2019, and today, in 2020. The Iranian public is continuing to speak out against the government. Despite this, there is no sign of the regime giving up or falling any time soon.
Ghattas ended with the comment that neither Iran or Saudi Arabia wants to go to war with the other. While they continue to be hostile rivals, they often find ways through talks and third parties to de-escalate. The lack of response to the drone strike against two Saudi oil processing facilities in September 2019 serves as an example of the Kingdom and Iran’s ability to de-escalate.
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Stevenson’s army, February 7
There are reports this morning that President Trump may fire his acting chief of staff as well as NSC staffer LtCol Vindman.
The Atlantic has a detailed article on how the Trump campaign has mastered digital advertising,leaving the Democrats far behind. There’s a lot of disinformation, but Trump voters remain loyal. I was struck by the reporter’s talk with a voter in Mississippi:“He tells you what you want to hear,” Willnow said. “And I don’t know if it’s true or not—but it sounds good, so fuck it.”
NYT has a good collection of Democratic candidate views on several foreign policy questions.
NYT also reports that Iraqi officials doubt that the attack that killed an American contractor and sparked retaliatory raids by US and Iran was launched by Iran. More likely, they say, it was ISIS.
AP says Iraq is deepening ties with Russia.
Dan Drezner warns the dollar may lose its primacy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 6
– FP says political ambassadors are forcing out career DCMs.
-NY Fed report warns of cyber attack consequences.
-IAEA says no new Iranian violations of JCPOA.
-Navy has greatly increased FONOPS in South China Sea.
-Here’s a report on the House defense panel hearing on defense innovation.
-AP reports on the slow-motion divorce from Iraqi military.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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