Month: March 2020
Gulf arms trade
While the US and Western Europe remain major suppliers in arms trade to Gulf states, other regional and global powers have strengthened their relationships with Gulf states as well. On March 25, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW) hosted a panel discussion on “Gulf Security in a Multipolar World: New Defense Ties Reflect Competition for Influence.” The discussion featured five speakers:
Jon Alterman: Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Alexandra Kuimova: Research Assistant, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Shana Marshall: Associate Director at the Institute for Middle East Studies at the Elliott School of International Affairs
Bilal Saab: Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense and Security Program at the Middle East Institute
Pieter D. Wezeman: Senior Researcher, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Emma Soubrier: Visiting Scholar, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, moderated
The West and the Gulf
Wezeman indicated that the US and Europe are major suppliers of weapons, training, technology, and manpower to Gulf states, especially to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Kuimova added that the US, the UK, France and Germany have increased their domination over the Gulf market from 2015 to 2019.
Saab emphasized that there is decreased regional confidence in US security commitment to its Gulf partners. He listed three major breakdowns in their partnership:
- Bush administration’s planning for a never executed attack on Iran
- Obama administration’s nuclear deal with Iran
- Trump administration’s assassination of Soleimani
The US never consulted on these major regional moves with its Gulf allies. But the US is desperate to sell arms to the Gulf, especially now that there is a power competition with Russia and China. Alterman believes nevertheless that the Gulf aims to maintain a close relationship with the US.
Intraregional Dynamics
Marshall stated that intraregional movement of arms has continued throughout Gulf history. The Gulf finances arms transfers from the US and Europe to non-Gulf monarchies and authoritarian republics, including Jordan, Egypt, and Lebanon. There have also been smuggling and proliferation. Additionally, regional production forms a basis for intraregional trade. The GCC aims for domestic production for itself and its regional allies, loosening the West’s grip on regional arms and capital transfers. It also broadens the GCC’s geopolitical influence by increasing political and commercial activities. Marshall concluded that having its own indigenous defense industry for arms sales and transfer is an integral part of effectuating Gulf foreign policy.
Wezeman thinks that the development of arms industry shows a state’s desire to be a regional power with strategic independence. It’s difficult to be a self-sufficient arms industry due to the inability to produce all materials and technologies. State indigenous arms industries have to depend on their allies to some extent.
Other players
Wezeman stated that China and Russia have entered the Gulf market by offering niche products. They may play a bigger role in the future. Kuimova indicated they are among the top ten arms exporters in the world and have increased their interests in the Gulf through security collaboration and economic cooperation, including arms trade and investment. Although Gulf states haven’t placed any orders for S-400 missile system or the Sukhoi Su-35 aircraft with Russia yet, the number of Gulf states that receive China’s arms supplies has increased. Kuimova attributed Gulf states’ arms requests from China and Russia to three reasons:
- The Gulf lacks the domestic technological basis needed to design and produce advanced weapons.
- Western suppliers limit their weapons sales to the Gulf for political and humanitarian reasons. Russia and China request few such conditions.
- Duplication of sources allows the Gulf to benefit from competition in terms of prices and conditions.
Alterman stated that China is trying to have comprehensive strategic partnerships with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, and Egypt. While Russia is not a desirable alternative partner to the US in the region, China can be a supplement to the US. He listed China’s motivations as follows:
- The Chinese need to secure energy from the Middle East independently of the US.
- American hegemony isn’t in China’s interests. China’s rising profile in the Middle East can draw US attention away from the Western Pacific and put a wedge between the US, Europe, and China.
He emphasized that China focuses more on business than security. How China-Middle East relations will develop still remains an open question.
Here’s the video for this panel discussion:
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, March 31
– The British missed it, too. They had a pandemic wargame and ignored the results.
-WSJ says hidden Chinese lending threatens emerging markets.
– DOD wants more of its budget secret.
– Report says Xi flattered Trump into dropping “Wuhan virus”
The uphill fight to vote by mail.
WH has released a 5g strategy report.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Bullying
Congressman Eliot Engel’s statement on Friday deserves the attention of Balkan-watchers:
“To say that the United States and Kosovo have a warm and close relationship would be understating the depth of our ties. The United States led the campaign to end Milosevic’s genocidal ethnic cleansing and has been the most powerful and consistent friend of the independent and sovereign Republic of Kosovo. I’ve visited Kosovo many times and can confidently say Americans do not receive a warmer welcome anywhere else around the world.
“I’ve been proud to be a partner of Kosovo governments led by a variety of political parties. I do not take sides on who should run Kosovo. That is a decision for the people of Kosovo. I will always work with whomever they choose.
“This is why I have been increasingly concerned with the heavy-handed tactics the Trump Administration is using with Prishtina. The State Department has long called for Kosovo to lift its tariffs on Serbia. But this Administration turned to economic penalties just a few short weeks after the Kurti government took office. Rather than letting a new government facing a pandemic staff its agencies and set up internal procedures, the U.S. contributed to a political crisis in Prishtina over the tariffs on Serbia.
“There are good reasons for Kosovo to lift tariffs, mostly that they are hurting Kosovo more than they are providing leverage to reach a peace deal with Serbia. Regardless, tariffs are a legitimate tool of a sovereign nation. As such, they’ve been imposed around the world by President Trump against friends and foes, alike, for economic and political reasons.
“Rather than using overbearing tactics with a friend which relies on our support, the United States should have patiently worked with the now-outgoing Kosovo government—as it sought to work with the previous Kosovo government—to improve policies which promote prosperity and a lasting peace. Strong-arming a small democracy is the act of a bully, not a mature partner. Regardless, I will continue to work with whatever government the people of Kosovo select now and in the future.
“Moreover, the pressure imposed on Prishtina for its tariffs is decidedly unbalanced. Serbian diplomats are transiting the globe pressing countries to derecognize Kosovo, and Serbia is deepening relations with Moscow and purchasing significant amounts of Russian weaponry. In fact, under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) passed by Congress in the aftermath of Russia’s interference in the 2016 elections, these arms purchases require the Administration to impose sanctions on Serbia. Neither have we imposed those sanctions, nor have we energetically pressed Serbia to end its derecognition efforts.
“Something’s wrong with U.S. policy and we need to correct it. We should start with rebalancing our approaches toward Serbia and Kosovo. We should work with our European allies to treat both countries as independent and sovereign partners, applying consistent standards to both sides as we try to restart peace talks. When U.S. law says we should sanction Serbia due to its security ties with Russia, we should.
“Additionally, the U.S. should immediately restart its assistance through the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). The MCC model is based on objective, data-driven indicators and a mutually agreed upon compact between the U.S. and the recipient country. Using this assistance as a bludgeon for actions not related to MCC or its mission twists the agency into just another transactional pressure tool—precisely what it was not intended to be.”
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
van der Stoel deadline extended
The Max van der Stoel Award is presented by the Government of the Netherlands every two years. It honours the memory of distinguished Dutch statesman and the first OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities, Max van der Stoel (seen here in Vukovar, Croatia). (OSCE) Photo details
THE HAGUE, 30 March 2020 – The deadline for receiving nominations for the Max van der Stoel Award 2020 has been extended to 30 April 2020. The award of 50,000 euros recognizes extraordinary and outstanding achievements in improving the position of national minorities in the OSCE participating States.
To propose a candidate, contact an OSCE field operation, a delegation to the OSCE or one of the OSCE institutions (the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, the Representative on Freedom of the Media or the High Commissioner on National Minorities, as well as the OSCE Secretariat and OSCE Parliamentary Assembly) with the name of an individual, group or organization you wish to be considered for the award. Only the above-mentioned OSCE entities can nominate candidates. The OSCE entity you approach will therefore consider your submission and decide which of the proposed candidates to nominate.
“In order to ensure transparency, fair competition and inclusiveness, my office will nominate all qualified candidates whose application it receives. I encourage all other OSCE entities to do the same,” said OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities (HCNM) Lamberto Zannier.
The OSCE field operations, delegations and institutions should send their nominations directly to the office of the HCNM either via email (mvds@hcnm.org), through the online nomination form (maxvanderstoelaward.com) or by mail/diplomatic post to:
Max van der Stoel Award
Prinsessegracht 22
2514 AP The Hague
The Netherlands
After receiving all nominations, a special jury of distinguished experts of international repute, chaired by the High Commissioner, will choose the winner. The award will be presented at a ceremony in The Hague in November 2020.
For more information about the award read this factsheet.
Contacts
OSCE High Commissioner on National MinoritiesMedia contactOffice: +31 70 312 5503media@hcnm.org
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, March 30
– Pres. Trump said yesterday he hopes the country can be “back to normal” by June. British health officials said social distancing could be needed until September. Meanwhile AEI & Hopkins experts have a phased, conditions-based plan for dealing with the pandemic that looks reasonable. Here’s the actual document. What it requires is work every day to restore and expand health services to monitor the disease.
– WSJ says companies need federal guidance in allocating medical supplies.
– Army Corps of Engineers is looking at convention centers as temporary hospitals.
– NYT says China’s epidemic monitoring system failed because of political tampering by officials who didn’t want to send bad news to Beijing.
– NYT reports on France’s forever war in the Sahel.
– WaPo’s Jackson Diehl says Pompeo is doing a terrible job .
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Peace Picks| March 29- April 4
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- Live Webcast: Big Brother: Internet Age Surveillance and Censorship in the Middle East| March 30, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Post-9/11, concerns over governmental stability, political extremism, and terrorism drove a surge in security-minded surveillance worldwide. Following the regional diffusion of social media and the Arab Spring a decade later, the pendulum in the Middle East swung back towards individual liberty and privacy. Today, the tension between these two poles is tighter than ever, as cutting-edge and intrusive surveillance programs in China and Singapore have proven effective if not essential to tracking and thwarting the spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic.
MEI is pleased to announce a panel which will seek to address several questions around censorship and surveillance in the Middle East: What purposes do they intend to serve, and are they effective? What are the excesses and human implications of these practices? Can censorship and surveillance play a responsible role in containing disinformation and thwarting disease, or are they doomed to be abused by the powers that be? And what will the future of these technologies look like in the region, as the age of interconnectedness allows governments to learn from one another, for better or worse?
Speakers:
Marc Owen Jones: Assistant professor, Hamad bin Khalifa University
Sahar Khamis: Associate professor, University of Maryland
Raed Labassi: Technologist and researcher, Amnesty International
Mohammad Soliman: Non-resident scholar, MEI
Michael Sexton (Moderator): Fellow and director of the Cybersecurity Initiative, MEI
- Live Webcast: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine: The Gaza Strip| March 31, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP) are pleased to host a webinar series: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine. nations around the globe, the COVID-19 crisis is both creating new challenges and exacerbating existing ones. This is especially true in Israel-Palestine, where Israelis and Palestinians live in close proximity, all under overarching Israeli authority but under regimes that afford them separate and grossly unequal access to health services.
In this context, the webinar series, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy and FMEP’s Lara Friedman, will examine how the COVID-19 crisis is impacting the very different and yet highly interconnected environments in Israel-Palestine, highlighting expert voices on the ground.
Speakers:
Tania Hary: Executive director, Gisha-Legal Center for Freedom of Movement
Dr. Ghada Al Jadba : Chief of Health Programme in the Gaza Strip, UNRWA
Omar Shaban: Founder of director, PalThink for Strategic Studies
Khaled Elgindy (Co-host): Senior fellow and Director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman (Co-host): President, FMEP
- Live Webcast: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine: The West Bank and East Jerusalem| April 1, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP) are pleased to host a webinar series: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine. nations around the globe, the COVID-19 crisis is both creating new challenges and exacerbating existing ones. This is especially true in Israel-Palestine, where Israelis and Palestinians live in close proximity, all under overarching Israeli authority but under regimes that afford them separate and grossly unequal access to health services.
In this context, the webinar series, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy and FMEP’s Lara Friedman, will examine how the COVID-19 crisis is impacting the very different and yet highly interconnected environments in Israel-Palestine, highlighting expert voices on the ground.
Speakers:
Tareq Baconi: Analyst for Israel/Palestine and Economics of Conflict, International Crisis Group
Jessica Montell: Executive director, HaMoked
Khaled Elgindy (Co-host): Senior fellow and Director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman (Co-host): President, FMEP
- Live Webcast: Crisis Upon Crisis: The Geopolitical & Economic Implications of the Pandemic| April 1, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM | Carnegie Middle East Center | Register Here
With over 530,000 infections and 25,000 deaths worldwide, COVID-19, the disease caused by the fast-spreading new coronavirus, has caused global havoc. Beyond the devastating human toll, this pandemic has caused global supply and demand shocks, economic turmoil, and financial market collapse, with the likely onset of a global recession. Oil prices have plummeted as pandemic-related policies, including global travel restrictions, have decreased demand. Measures to contain the pandemic have hurt key sectors such as tourism and disrupted production, manufacturing, and trade, leading to significant job losses. For the Middle East and North Africa—especially fragile and conflict-ridden countries such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya—the virus has become a major near-term challenge. Before the virus struck, many countries in the region were already facing significant economic and political challenges, including crumbling healthcare systems. Today, there are those that are incapable of providing necessary stimulus packages to their economies.
In this broader context, what are the prospects for global economic and financial systems in the coming months? What implications will the coronavirus have on the geopolitics and economics of the Middle East and North Africa? Similarly, how are other regions reacting, for instance Latin America? What are the available policy options to address the economic and financial fallout of the pandemic?
Speakers:
Jihad Azour is the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund.
Amer Bisat is the managing director at Blackrock and a former senior economist at the International Monetary Fund.
Moisés Naím is a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where his research focuses on international economics and global politics.
Maha Yahya is the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
- Live Webcast: Unemployment Insurance during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Reducing the Impact of this Economic Downturn| April 1, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic, along with the critical public health measures taken to resist it, has already resulted in millions of workers being laid off and families threatened with financial ruin. Fortunately, the unemployment insurance (UI) system serves as the first line of defense for laid off workers. However, as state and federal policymakers continue to move forward with substantial changes to UI to bolster its effectiveness, important policy questions arise: What is different about this crisis that necessitates UI reform? What do time-limited reforms aim to accomplish? What can we reasonably expect the UI system to do for workers and the economy?
Speakers:
Katharine Abraham: Director, Maryland Center for Economics and Policy; Professor, Survey Methodology, Professor, Economics, The University of Maryland
Arindajit Dube: Professor, Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Susan N. Houseman: Vice-President and Director of Research, Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
Ryan Nunn: Policy Director, The Hamilton Project, Fellow, Economics Studies, The Brookings Institution
Jay Shambaugh (Moderator): Director, The Hamilton Project, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, The Brookings Institution
- Live Webcast: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine: Israel| April 2, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP) are pleased to host a webinar series: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine. nations around the globe, the COVID-19 crisis is both creating new challenges and exacerbating existing ones. This is especially true in Israel-Palestine, where Israelis and Palestinians live in close proximity, all under overarching Israeli authority but under regimes that afford them separate and grossly unequal access to health services.
In this context, the webinar series, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy and FMEP’s Lara Friedman, will examine how the COVID-19 crisis is impacting the very different and yet highly interconnected environments in Israel-Palestine, highlighting expert voices on the ground.
Speakers:
Henriette Chacar: Editor and reporter, +972 Magazine
Ran Goldstein: Executive director, Physicians for Human Rights-Israel
Khaled Elgindy (Co-host): Senior fellow and Director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman (Co-host): President, FMEP
- Live Webcast: Biological Warfare and Pandemics in the Middle East: Confronting a Growing Crisis| April 2, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The global outbreak of COVID-19 has highlighted the necessity for cooperation among governments in the Middle East, creating an opportunity to overcome geopolitical rivalries in an effort to contain the virus. Unfortunately, the damage of COVID-19 in the Middle East has been quick and massive. There is evidence of some information sharing and training exchanges between Israel and the West Bank, but there is a much greater disparity in information sharing between Israel and the rest of the Arab world.
Regional cooperation efforts for containing COVID-19 can be a roadmap for an approach to counter bioterrorism and biological warfare in the region. Although experts have historically agreed that the threat of biological warfare in the region is low, advances in technology drastically reduce the cost and time of developing biological weapons. Groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have expressed an interest in acquiring biological weapons, creating a looming threat for regional security.
Speakers:
Jessica Bell: Senior program officer, Global Biological Policy and Programs, Nuclear Threat Initiative
Asha George: Executive director, Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense
Chen Kane: Director, Middle East Nonproliferation Program, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Bilal Saab (Moderator): Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense and Security Program Middle East Institute
- Live Webcast: The Effects of the Coronavirus Outbreak on Marinalized Communities | April 2, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 3:45 PM | Brookings Institution | Register Here
As the coronavirus outbreak rapidly spreads, existing social and economic inequalities in society have been exposed and exacerbated. State and local governments across the country, on the advice of public health officials, have shuttered businesses of all types and implemented other social distancing recommendations. Such measures assume a certain basic level of affluence, which many in low-income and vulnerable communities do not have and as a result, millions of people have lost their jobs.
On Thursday, April 2, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar discussion to address how the coronavirus pandemic is impacting low-income and vulnerable communities. Panelists will discuss what measures officials can take to protect marginalized communities as the country continues to fight the virus.
Speakers:
Rashawn Ray (Moderator): David M. Rubenstein Fellow, Governance Studies
Camille Busette: Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, Governance Studies, Metropolitan Policy Program; Director, Race, Prosperity, and Inclusion Initiative
Makada Henry-Nickie: Fellow, Governance Studies
RSS - Posts
