Day: March 5, 2020
Only military means
As the humanitarian crisis in Idlib seems to me that biggest on earth right now (a million or more civilians displaced and under constant attack in a war zone), I reproduce below the Turkish/Russian ceasefire agreement, provided by Bassam Barabandi.
What is striking here is how mendacious the preamble is. While the ceasefire and security corridor established by this agreement are highly desirable, virtually every word of the preamble is false or based on false premises. Bashar al Assad is intent on chasing people out of Idlib because he can’t control the province so long as they remain. While this agreement may hold briefly, there is every reason to believe he will renew the assault and that the Russians and Iranians will support him every inch of the way up to the Turkish border, no matter the humanitarian consequences, unless stopped from doing so by military means.
Additional Protocol to the Memorandum on Stabilization of the Situation in the Idlib De-Escalation Area
The Republic of Turkey and the Russian Federation, as guarantors of the observance of the ceasefire regime in the Syrian Arab Republic (hereinafter referred to as the Parties),
Recalling the Memorandum on the Creation of De‑Escalation Areas in the Syrian Arab Republic as of May 4, 2017 and Memorandum on Stabilization of the Situation in the Idlib De-Escalation Area as of September 17, 2018.
Reaffirming their strong commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic.
Reaffirming their determination to combat all forms of terrorism, and to eliminate all terrorist groups in Syria as designated by the UNSC, while agreeing that targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure cannot be justified under any pretext,
Highlighting that there can be no military solution to the Syrian conflict and that it can only be resolved through Syrian-led and Syrian-owned, UN facilitated political process in line with the UNSCR 2254,
Stressing the importance of prevention of further deterioration of humanitarian situation, protection of civilians and ensuring humanitarian assistance to all Syrians in need without preconditions and discrimination as well as prevention of displacement of people and facilitation of safe and voluntary return of refugees and internally displaced persons to their original places of residence in Syria;
Have agreed as follows,
1- Cease all military actions along the line of contact in the Idlib de-escalation area starting from 00:01 of March 6, 2020.
2- A security corridor will be established 6 km deep to the north and 6 km deep to the south from highway M4. Specific parameters of the functioning of the security corridor will be agreed between the Defense Ministries of the Turkish Republicand the Russian Federation within 7 days.
3- On March 15, 2020, joint Turkish-Russian patrolling will begin along highway M4 from the settlement of Trumba (2 km to the west of Saraqib) to the settlement of Ain-Al-Havr.
This additional protocol enters into force from the moment of signing.
Done in Moscow on 5 March, 2020 in three copies, in the Turkish, Russian and English languages, all texts having equal legal force.
Signatures:
For Republic of Turkey For Russian Federation
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The Pakistan rollercoaster
Pakistan is in a period of neither high promise nor crisis. An expert group of independent academics, policy analysts, and retired government has taken the opportunity to lay out a range of concrete proposals for US policymakers to shape the bilateral relations. On March 3, the Middle East Institute hosted a panel discussion with some of the participants on “Pathways to a Stable and Sustainable Relationship between Pakistan and the United States.” The discussion featured eight speakers:
Syed Mohammed Ali: Adjunct professor, Georgetown and Johns Hopkins Universities
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald M. Feierstein: Senior Vice President, MEI
Ambassador Ali Jehangir Siddiqui: Pakistani Ambassador at Large for Foreign Investment
Marvin G. Weinbaum: Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan studies, MEI
William Milam: Former US Ambassador to Pakistan
Touqir Hussain: Visiting professor at Georgetown and Johns Hopkins Universities
Dana Marshall: President, Transnational Strategy Group
Polly Nayak: Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Institute
Pakistan-US relations
Feierstein described US-Pakistan relations as a mistrust-driven roller coaster while Siddiqui emphasized economic cooperation, culture exchange, and regional development, following a period of security focus in the 2000s. Weinbaum thinks relations have been unstable, waxing and waning, climbing to heights of interdependence and sinking to mutual recrimination. Hussain attributed the unsustainability to contradictions in strategic interests, which led to the 1998-2001 US sanctions on Pakistan.
Why now?
Weinbaum noted that today is a period of calm without major crises in the region. It’s an opportune moment to improve cooperation and put the relationship on a solid footing. We should seek better understanding as well as awareness of differences. Pakistan is critical to US regional interests in terms of eradicating ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates, achieving a stable Afghanistan, and alleviating the threat of nuclear proliferation. Hussain added that while the US is withdrawing from Afghanistan, it should continue its proactive engagement with South Asia, maintaining good relations with both India and Pakistan in the long run. Both Nayak and Milam believe the period before the upcoming election is an opportunity to address key issues in specific areas.
What the proposals are about?
Ali said the proposals focusing on Pakistan-US strategic interests, including recommendations on intelligence sharing between US and Pakistan, counterterrorism cooperation, peace between Pakistan and India, the US role in crisis management, China’s investments in Pakistan, clean energy, US investments, etc. The proposals aim to balance security with civil society and human rights, which can increase US diplomatic status in the region.
Nayak believes nuclear weapons should not be the heart of rebuilding relations. Normalization should rely on strategic economic cooperation because Pakistan faces deficits and underemployment. The proposals attempt to expand business and navigate differences in corporate and social culture.
Marshall stated that Pakistan needs more commercial and economic opportunities. Establishing a reconstruction zone could incentivize investment on border zone between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US can leverage its strategic relations with Pakistan by tying trade to security.
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