A bad deal
Shaun Byrnes, a retired US diplomat who served as chief of the U.S. Diplomatic Observer Mission in Kosovo in 1998-99, writes:
Kosovo President Thaçi and Serbian President Vučić have prepared a draft comprehensive agreement to end the conflict that has defined Serbia’s relationship with its Albanian citizens for a century. It is now almost ready for signature but movement on it is being blocked by Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti’s refusal to lift tariffs on Serbian imports and a constitutional dispute over who is in charge of the dialogue with Serbia. The draft reportedly includes the exchange of territory.
Washington is threatening to withdraw US troops in retaliation and Thaçi is using escalating US pressure on Kurti to engineer his government’s collapse. Thaçi claims Kurti’s refusal dangerously threatens relations with the US.
Kurti has taken the more responsible approach, unilaterally removing some tariffs on March 15th and offering to remove the rest on April 1st if Serbia responds constructively. And he wrote to Secretary of State Pompeo that he will lift the tariffs and will himself resume the dialogue if Serbia responds constructively to his phased removal of tariffs.
At the close of an extraordinary session of Kosovo’s Assembly near midnight on March 11th, the Assembly’s Speaker proposed ending the tariffs at the same time Thaçi gives up leading the dialogue. It is not clear what will now happen.
Kosovo leaders need to be reminded that US friendship is and will remain firm regardless of the disagreement over the tariffs.
In 2016, the Thaçi and Vučić decided to reject the EU’s step-by-step approach begun in 2013 in favor of a big, comprehensive deal. The EU had mediated a series of technical agreements — university diplomas, license plates, auto insurance, and the like — that would culminate in a comprehensive agreement finally “normalizing” their relationship by Serbia’s recognition of Kosovo’s independence. But few of the technical agreements were implemented and the dialogue stagnated.
The two presidents met secretly, according to many accounts, often under the aegis of former EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Mogherini. By November 2019 these meetings produced a draft reportedly ready for signature but for a few details.
The draft included, according to leaks, an exchange of territory (some parts of Kosovo north of the Ibar river, and some portions of the Preshevo valley in southern Serbia), an association of Serbian municipalities with authorities that reportedly remain to be agreed, extraterritoriality for Serbian monasteries, and no de jure recognition by Serbia, rather a Serbian commitment not to block Kosovo’s UN admission.
What Russia will do in the UNSC remains problematic, despite Putin’s assurances to Vučić and Thaçi in 2018 that Russia will support whatever Serbia and Kosovo agree on.
An exchange of territory (partition) and the association raised red flags with many diplomats and observers. Partition risks forced population exchange and even violence. Worse, it could revive dreams of radical nationalists elsewhere in the Balkans. A virtually autonomous Serbian association of municipalities smacks of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska. osovo has enough dysfunction without adding another ingredient.
In office barely a month, Kurti is under intense and escalating pressure from the US, and growing pressure from his coalition partner, to lift the tariffs immediately so dialogue can resume and the comprehensive agreement completed.
Vučić will not re-engage without Kosovo first completely lifting the tariffs. Kurti has offered to compromise: to phase out the tariffs by first ending them on raw materials on March 15th. Apparently 80% of the imports are raw materials so Kurti’s move goes a long way toward what Serbia, the US and the EU have been requesting. Furthermore, Kurti offered to remove remaining tariffs beginning April 1st provided Serbia responds constructively by removing all non-tariff barriers to trade with Kosovo and halting its campaign to persuade states recognizing Kosovo to withdraw recognition.
Washington has rejected the compromise and insists on all tariffs being removed now and threatened to halt millions of dollars of financial assistance and subsequently to withdraw US troops from Kosovo.
However, Vučić will not resume the dialogue until after Serbian parliamentary elections on April 26th. His public goal is to have his Progressive Party better its previous decisive parliamentary victory and he does not want to give radical nationalist opponents any excuse to accuse him of selling out Kosovo.
Vučić refused to move forward last week when pushed by National Security Adviser O’Brien, Special Envoy Grenell and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner, reiterating he will not reopen the dialogue until Pristina lifts the tariffs. Even Kushner’s promises of vast amounts of foreign assistance and investment did not move Vučić.
In an interview after he returned home, Vučić declared he would not return to Washington to resume the dialogue until after the elections and criticized the rush to reach a quick deal. Vučić has been happy to let Kurti take intense pressure from the US to resume the dialogue because of his refusal to lift the tariffs immediately.
So what’s the rush? Kurti will lift most of the tariffs this weekend and Vučić is in no hurry to resume negotiations. Furthermore, unlike Washington, Brussels has welcomed Kurti’s decision to begin phasing out the tariffs and is not putting heavy public pressure on him to do more. Finally, whence will come the “hundreds of millions of dollars” of foreign direct investment and assistance promised by Washington, especially when the US has not coordinated its initiative with the EU?
It would be wiser to move gradually and build consensus among political leaders and society for the changes that the final agreement will produce. Kosovo’s politicians and public need transparency: there has been none. Thaçi needs to be open about the contents of the deal so politicians and society can decide on it, rather than be surprised later by it and its consequences. Kosovo needs time to develop a consensus on how to proceed with the dialogue in a democratic manner, and not be pushed into quick decisions.
In closing the Assembly’s extraordinary March 11th session on the tariff, Kosovo’s Assembly Speaker, Vjosa Osmani (an LDK deputy chairman), in a rebuke to Thaçi, called for lifting the tariffs at the same time he withdraws from the dialogue. Osmani’s rebuke highlighted Thaçi’s refusal to bow to the constitutional requirement that it is the government’s prerogative to lead such a negotiation.
It is Washington and Thaçi that are pressing for a deal now, and hence escalating pressure on Kurti to lift the tariffs. President Trump, O’Brien and Grenell are behind the push for a quick agreement.
Trump is looking for a quick deal to boost his reelection prospects that are looking dimmer because of the economic and health crisis spawned by the pandemic coupled with the collapse of the price of oil and the likelihood that former Vice President Biden will be the Democratic nominee.
For his part Thaçi sees the deal as an addition to his legacy but has other more important political considerations. He would like to bring down the Kurti government to protect himself and his corrupt cronies from Kurti’s effort to root out pervasive corruption. Thaçi’s aim is to then forge a new coalition government composed of the LDK, Kurti’s current coalition partner, and the PDK, the party Thaçi founded.
Trump’s intervention to take over the dialogue has given Thaçi the opportunity to do so. He is exploiting threats of US punitive action as a bludgeon against Kurti and is trying to rally the LDK and parliamentary opposition to demand the tariffs be lifted immediately. In public statements this week, Thaçi charged that Kurti’s actions threatened relations with the US and the “very future of our state,” an irresponsible charge.
While the LDK’s leader supports Thaçi, for now the Assembly is not supporting Thaçi and the situation is at stalemate.
It is worth reminding Kosovo leaders that no comprehensive deal will end Serbia’s hostility to its former province. Until Serbia acknowledges what it has done in Kosovo under Milosevic’s rule their relations will neither be normal nor friendly.
Of more importance, we should remind Kosovo’s leaders that the US is and will remain a firm friend and that will not change regardless of what Trump, O’Brien, Grenell, Pompeo and Kushner may threaten. Kosovo should not be compelled to accept a consequential agreement with a hostile Serbia its politicians and public have not seen because of the self-serving motives of one politician.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
33 thoughts on “A bad deal”
Comments are closed.
RSS - Posts
Of course the fantasy of lots of balkan watchers is that Serbia gets nothing and is just punished and accepts independence of Kosovo without getting anything! But that’s failed for 12 years now. Serbia was partitioned very peacefully in 2008 and there’s no reason to believe a little partition of Kosovo and further partition of Serbia would mean anything but peace
For the sake of argument imagine a situation 21 years after WW2 (1966) in Germany the President is Joseph Goebbels and the Foreign Minister is Herman Goring. This duo says we can not recognize Polish borders because only we are being punished and we should get something. Would anybody in their right mind listen much less support thiese demands? Of course not.
Well why in 2020, 21 years after defeat of Milosovic regime while his Goebbels Aleksander Vučić and his Goring Ivica Dačić not only are still firmly in power but get sympathetic ears for similar line of argument. A quick reminder that the Milosevic where this duo held very prominent positions is responsible for worst atrocities in the European soil since WW2, not only in Kosovo but Bosnia and Croatia as well. They have not repented a single bit. Still deny the genocide in Srebrenica, still deny war crimes in Kosovo although victims bodies turned in lorries thrown in Serbian rivers and under Batajnica military airport.
Appeasement did not work with their boss Milosevic it will not work with his successors neither.
Just my 2 cents.
Even with all the demonization,Milosevic has little to do with Hitler,and as horrible as his is,Vucic has little to do with Goebbles,or Goring,and polish people were not involved in human organ harvesting scheme,or destruction of German churches. Czech people didn’t have concentration camps for Germans,either. That’s why your 2 cents don’t have much of a value.There are many other points,to be made,about the fallacy of your argument,but it would probably be just a waste of time.
Btw German foreign minister was Joachim von Ribbentrop,not Goering.
Really Milosevic was demonized for nothing right? He was not actually a murderous thug but was dubbed Butcher of Balkans to smear his good name. Hundred of thousand victims just dropped dead by themselves in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo? So he did not drew his ideology out of belief that his Great Leader of “Heavenly People” who are God given to ethnically cleanse “inferior” neighboring people to provide “Lebensraum” for his Serbs aka Great Serbia aka “Where is a single Serbian grave is Serbia, damned International borders&other nations”. If that is not fascism I do not know what is. So in that respect he was like Hitler in much smaller scale of course.
Organ harvesting, concentration camps, churches burning??? Were you get your news from? Sputnik, Russia Today? Fantastic stories cooked by Milosevic spooks do not count as credible source you know. It’s called history revisionism. Since armed conquest failed so Plan B is smear everybody, relativize the role of the aggressor and the victim aka “everybody is bad in Balkans” in order to get of the hook with no blame admitted, wine aka “only we are being punished” and win what was lost in the war aka “we should get something”.
As we speak this Serbian regime undermines a NATO member Montenegro with staged protests via orthodox clerics. Serbia is antagonistic to Croatia an NATO and EU member. Serbia is disruptor in Bosnia not allowing for lasting peace to settle in. Serbia is covertly disrupting another neighbor Northern Macedonia by denying existence of Macedonian Orthodox Church. ICJ ruled that Kosovo Declaration of Independence was not against the International Law but that has not stopped the Duo to undermine Kosovo everywhere they could thus keeping the entire region tense, conflict prone and not being able to move on to normalcy. As I mentioned 21 years after the war all this tells me appeasement is not working. Maybe the whole idea that Vučić and Dačić will change their ways and from now one will be democrats, work for peace was bizarre to start with.
Again just me 2 cents.
P.S. Vučić current Serbian President was Milosevic Minister for Information ( war crimes cover up more accurately) during Kosovo war in 1999 hence Goebbles reference.
Ivica Dačić is current Serbian Foreign Minister but in the 90-ties was Milosevic’s right hand man hence Goring reference.
Named “Butcher of Balkans” by whom? Corporate media that was cheering our disastrous adventures in Iraq,Libya,Afghanistan? Credible sources,aren’t they…
“who are God given to ethnically cleanse “inferior” neighboring people to provide “Lebensraum””
What in the Gods names are talking about? You have no clue what fascism is…
All those places,you’ve enumerated,had Waffen SS divisions.Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo. That’s a lot closer to fascism,than this contrived narrative you’re spouting about.
“Organ harvesting, concentration camps, churches burning???”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/14/kosovo-prime-minister-llike-mafia-boss
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%8Celebi%C4%87i_camp
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn5SkGpIKDs
ICJ advisory opinion is non-biding,UN resolution 1244 is.
Btw Dacic was not a “right hand” man…
Again,your 2 cents,pretty much worthless….
By all means media of Free World are not credible but Tanjug (Milosevic’s News agency) is. Nevertheless, if you care about facts here is a source that is not “corporate media”. BBC is a public broadcaster and one of most prestigious in the world. They pretty much nailed it what happened in “The Death of Yugoslavia”. You will find there how ethnic cleansing played out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDADy9b2IBM
It’s pretty long but well worth vile the time for everybody interested in that part of Balkan/European history.
As I said history revisionists & Milosevic apologists are currently at Plan B fabricating narratives that in Balkans everybody is bad. I totally get that. I don’t expect them to admit any guilt. My argument was from beginning why help them get away with it by pretending nothing happened and they’ve changed, even rewarding them by “getting something”. Just call it what it is. Serbia is ally of Russia not of the West, it is run by the same people as in 90-ties, with same ideology of hatred for it’s neighbors, getting funds from EU but buying weapons from Russia, refusing to move on and give peace a chance.
You keep underestimating my 2 cents but they just that 2 cents but most certainly are not worthless.
P.S. Dacic’s nickname was/is “Mali Slobo” meaning “Little Milosevic” just so you know.
Still worthless 2 cents…
“Demonization” of Milosevic. Oh goodness me, the sophistry continues. Calling out the behavior of a “leader” and their “government” is not demonisation. Now sure corporate or western media had its own agenda, but that does not mean the massacres and internment camps reported on were fake. That said sure the West saw rump Yugoslavia of which Serbia was its most prominent component as an extension of Russian influence at the time. Add to that the fall of communism and a NATO which became irrelevant, the 1990s were an era that the West needed to distract itself with a cause in the name of stability and containment and whatever other neo liberal “third way” concept it needed to prop its sense of importance. The implosion of Yugoslavia gave it that opportunity. As if the plight of Muslim Bosniaks (which the West allowed the Serbs to slaughter through genocide for years before they put a stop to it in 1995) or Muslim Kosovar Albanians were reasons that propelled the West to intervene. The book ‘Collision Course: NATO, Russia, and Kosovo’, by John Norris whom conducted high ranking interviews with US, European and Russian officials, politicians and military personal show that the conflict was really a US (NATO) – Russia proxy war and Kosovo Albanians were secondary and barely featured in their concerns. Nonetheless for Kosovar Albanians, Western intervention saved them from total disaster, and from the Palestinianisation of their situation.
Now for people reading this, if your on the left, you see US (NATO) intervention in Kosovo as a gross act of imperialism, i.e exemplified by the likes of Jeremy Corbyn, Noam Chomsky etc. If your on the right, you see it as a mistaken misuse of Western power on behalf of a Muslim people (who are perceived as the “real enemy”) at the expense of fellow Christian Serbs that created a new state whose main population is Muslim in Europe, i.e exemplified by the likes of Trump, Marie Le Pen, Gert Wilders and other conservative/right wing types etc. Now as the world is heading in either direction, Kosovo the product of a centrist, neo liberal Clinton administration is seen as some kind of abomination. And this is were Albanians in the Balkans or diaspora fail to see the changing political winds. They have put their faith in a USA that under Trump sees them as a burden at best (D. Trump Jr) and a Muslim threat at worst (John Bolton).
Because of the 1999 intervention, Kosovar Albanians have developed an unhealthy sycophantic attachment to the US. The 1999 intervention has made Kosovar Albanians, and Albanians in general in the Balkans develop the wrong perception that somehow they are a favoured population and state like Israel and Jews. This misguided view has resulted in them placing all their eggs in one basket to the detriment of courting and forming other relationships with multiple countries to compensate for any US changes of attitude and even policy toward them. And as the recent downfall of the Kurti government shows (via US lobbying behind the scenes), the US is no longer that dependable ally.
In the end, Kosovar Albanians got self determination through Western (US) imperialism the same way Serbia got self determination through Russian imperialism against the Ottoman state. In 1999 Albanians got lucky. Looks like that luck might run out. Thaci is willing to sell out Kosovo for a few villages and the establishment of a parallel regime of theocratic Orthodox entities represented through churches and monasteries that no country in Europe (which is built on Christian foundations) affords their Christian denominations on its lands.
Brian what you talking about, serrbia want get anything from Kosova eccept those paar serrbs they left behinde over there…
If you don’t know the story what happend there you should’t be talkong about it.
“Trump is looking for a quick deal to boost his reelection prospects that are looking dimmer because of the economic and health crisis spawned by the pandemic coupled with the collapse of the price of oil and the likelihood that former Vice President Biden will be the Democratic nominee”
Talk about delusions of grandeur about the impact of Kosovo’s situation on reelection prospects. Most Americans couldn’t pin Afghanistan on a map never mind Eastern Europe,Serbia or Kosovo. Kosovo isn’t even background noise that will impact the Presidential outcome (then again neither is Biden). That’s not to put Kosovo down – it’s just fact.
Dear Mr. Byrnes,
Since I had chance to meet both of you (Mr. Byrnes and Mr. Server) and being aware of your contribution in Kosovo, before, during and after the 1999 conflict in Kosovo, as well as Mr. Server’s input and his analytical papers regarding Kosovo and Balkan, I can say that the article has at least one MAJOR TRUTH, which for all K. Albanians is crucial, since we feel the same and that is:
….” we should remind Kosovo’s leaders that the US is and will remain a firm friend and that will not change regardless of what…“ is current government (author remark). With a small remark that instead of Kosovo’s leaders I will say – Kosovo Citizens.
What the citizens of Kosovo want to see (I do believe as well as Serbian), is that US Government not support any deal of the Politicians (Thaci and Vucic). Their prolonged (and unsuccessful) negotiation had a tremendous cost and has delayed the agony of both countries, enabling all potential perpetrators to make much difficult life for their citizens. Therefore there is no optimism or any trust that this “new deal” if such exists will bring something good.
Besides this, as its correctly stated, there are some self –serving motives of (one) politician. But I do believe of both of them.
The first (Thaci) seeks to avoid the responsibilities for bringing Kosovo on the state of economic and moral bankruptcy, where everyday life is becoming unbearable because of the huge impact that wrong political decisions have;
The second one (Vucic), for avoiding (or unwillingness) to brake his ties with the shadows of the past, which have been following him since coming to power.
The both of them have to belong to the history, ASAP is better. Just then, the citizens of both countries can find their peace and helped by international community move their countries into the phase of prosperity and civilization.
It should also bear in mind that any agreement must be ratified by the Parliaments of the respective countries. And that one-sided pressure could cause problems that could not bring reliable and sustainable agreement.
That doesn’t mean necessarily that US Government shall at all cost trust the newly elected governments, since it’s happen very often that the Balkan leaders are often transformed into autocrats who soon forget their promises. They should all the time be kept accountable and responsible for their promises, in front of their citizens and their international Partners.
In the end, no reasonable man can demand that Kosovo give Serbia “something”. Kosovo has given a lot, territory, victims, etc., not only during the war, but over a century of being under (together with other parts where Albanians are significant ethnicity) the administration of the Kingdom of Serbia Croatia & Slovenia, and later one under the former Yugoslav Federation, where it remained out of its will.
Kosovo shouldn’t “give something”,neither should Serbia…
“where it remained out of its will.”
It’s all about ones “will”? You/Kosovo Albanians support the “will” of Catalonia? Crimea?
Mr. John, thnx. for your comments!
We Kosovo Albanians, have gone through a very difficult process of self-declaration/determination/ of the Independence, by following the vise politic of our historic President Dr. Rugova.
Therefore we will for sure support the “will” of any nation, which follow the the Internationally recognized and accepted process of self determination!
Best regards,
Which you didn’t do…
Sure, i support Catalonian self determination. With all the repression of the past Franco regime, Spain could not even hold its word on granting the Catalans more autonomy that it promised and then rescinded some years ago. Why should Catalans have to live with crumbs. And yes, i too support Crimeans self determination. The indigenous Turkic Muslim Crimeans have a right to not live under either Ukrainian or Russian rule. Independence would remedy the situation and right a wrong done by Stalin and his Islamophobic polices.
If vucic and dacic are comparable to hitler people and Nazis why isn’t nato bombing Serbia right now?
We already gave too much to Serbia. Serbia will never be satisfied because it wants to conquer the whole Balkan, especially Kosovo and Albanian. Today, in Serbia in power and Milosovic’s ‘bastards’ and this tells a lot. Serbia still approaches Kosovo with a criminal mind and actions(as much as they can.
Leaving us alone is the best for Serbia. They should look forward as we should. They have to recognize what they have done to Kosovo and others and build the future of Balkan based on positive narratives.
Those who shake hands with the partition of Kosovo do not forget that USA foresight and systematic work made the Kosova the AUTONOMOUS Province in 1974 in SFRY, LIBERATED from occupation/colonization from Serbia in 1999 and in 2008 made it INDEPENDENT.
We hope/believe that President DONALD TRUMP does not violate the legacy of the 5 (five) US Presidents (Wilson, Bush, Bush Jr.,Clinton, Obama) for the Freedom of Kosova and now to divide Kosova. Still 2/3 of Kosova’s territories is under Serbia’s colonization, occupation 1804-20…
Serbs they already have land of sandzak,used to be Albanian territory,enough is enough they committed horrible crimes in Kosovo 🇽🇰,and don’t forget 7000 bosnian muslims in just one day, they massacre.