COVID-19 in the Middle East

The outbreak of coronavirus in Iran began on February 21. The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported at least 1300 deaths in the Middle East and North Africa. On March 20, the Middle East Institute hosted a panel discussion on “COVID-19 in the Middle East: Assessing the Risks, Exploring Policy Remedies.” The discussion featured four speakers:

Basma Alloush: Policy and Advocacy Advisor, Norwegian Refugee Council.

Jihad Azour: Director, Middle East and Central Asia department, International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Rana Hajjeh: Director of Program Management, World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean

Hannah Kaviani: Senior Journalist, Radio Farda, RFE/RL’s Persian Language service

Paul Salem, President of the Middle East Institute, moderated

Current Context

Hajjeh pointed out that testing standards are different from state to state. For example, Iran only tests severe cases and makes mild cases stay at home. Iran’s country-wide transmission will lead to an increased number of deaths. Conflicts and wars in the region have weakened health infrastructure, which may not be able to handle the pandemic and may increase the risk of suffering. To reduce the proliferation of COVID-19, WHO is increasing the supply of personal protection equipment across the region. It also attempts to convince religious figures to stop mass gatherings and maintain social distance.

Alloush demonstrated that the COVID-19 has a severe impact on refugee communities. In Yemen and Syria, health infrastructure has been targeted by militias. Public facilities and services are insufficient. Ongoing conflicts have weakened local governance and imposed restrictions on humanitarian assistance. Living conditions don’t allow refugees to do social distancing. Quarantine leads to a decreased access to market. As the situation deteriorates, there have been more tensions between communities.

Kaviani attributed Iran’s pandemic crisis to several reasons:

• Iranians’ lack of education
• Lack of trust in the government
• Sanctions
• Mismanagement
• Lack of regional cooperation

These factors cause the shortage of medicine and medical devices, as well as Iranians’ distrust of government’s instructions and statistics.

Impacts

Azour stated that the pandemic and the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia are leading to economic turmoil. Domestic and external demand has dropped because customers have lost confidence on the market. Trade has slowed. The oil price has dropped by more than 60%, which puts pressure on government budgets. Azour expects that any measures to contain the pandemic will cause an increase in unemployment and a reduction in wages. Investments in production and manufacturing will also decline. The impacts will spread to the bond and the equity markets as well.

Remedies

Alloush emphasized that refugees are more vulnerable in this pandemic due to the lack of service access. She listed four main concerns of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs):

• Maintaining operations aimed at meeting pre-existing humanitarian needs,
• Ensuring humanitarian exemptions in order to provide services to refugee communities,
• Providing accurate information and instructions, and
• Guaranteeing the duty of care and protection of NGO staffs.

Hajjeh added that new political agendas may create more uncertainty at this time. States’ ministries of health should take what happened in China into consideration.

Azour prioritized public health and financial improvements in his policy recommendations. The market should reduce consumer payments. Governments should offer timely, targeted support to sectors in need. They should also preserve financial stability by allowing cash transactions as well as encouraging regional and international coordination.