Day: March 26, 2020
Albin’s fall could be Hashim’s
Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti lost a vote of confidence yesterday, abandoned by his main LDK coalition partner. He remains in office as caretaker, though it is unclear to me whether he’ll get another crack at forming a government. More likely he’ll be forced to cede to someone else or take the country to an early election. The latter would be difficult with Covid-19 around.
The Trump Administration welcomes Albin’s fall, as he was refusing to bend to its demand that he unilaterally abolish all the tariffs his predecessor had levied on Serbian goods, in retaliation for Belgrade’s campaign against recognition of Kosovo. Washington has abandoned the traditional American policy of support for Kosovo’s democracy and territorial integrity and is now twisting Pristina’s political arms in favor of a deal with Serbia that would damage both. There have been many ugly moments in Kosovo, so this one doesn’t really rate in the hall of infamy. But it isn’t pretty.
Albin was trying to deny emergency powers (to deal with Covid-19) to President Thaci because he feared Hashim would use them to cut a deal with Serbia unacceptable to the government. This despite the fact that both the parliament and the constitutional court have said the government should have the responsibility of negotiating with Belgrade. The Prime Minister made the mistake of firing an important figure from his LDK coalition partner when the Interior Minister suggested the President should get the emergency powers he wants. That, along with intense American pressure, seems to have turned the LDK against Albin.
I suppose Hashim will now try to cobble together a government more to his liking that will grant him the emergency powers he has sought. Albin is in a weakened position, as his party can’t govern without coalition partners that are unlikely to be available. But there are signs Albin would do well in new elections. The country is solidly against the kind of exchange of territory with Serbia that Hashim is open to, but if he can he’ll try to proceed with the deal with Belgrade as quickly as feasible after the April 26 Serbian election.*
The big question is why. All of Pristina thinks the Americans have promised Hashim protection from prosecution, in particular by the Special Chamber that operates in The Hague to deal with particular crimes committed before, during, and after the 1999 Kosovo war. I don’t know whether that is true, and I’ve long doubted that the Special Chamber prosecutor has the needed evidence to indict. But the prosecutor is an American the Trump Administration appointed. It is not hard to imagine he could be told to indict or not indict.
The President is no doubt concerned about his legacy and doesn’t want an indictment to mar it. But he should think twice before going ahead with a land/people swap that could lead to the end of the Serb presence in Kosovo, because those not on territory traded to Serbia will either flee or gradually relocate over the next few years. Kosovo would then be ripe plucking for Albania’s eastern province. The father of his country could find his legacy turned to the political equivalent of dust.
*Correction, 3/26: the Serbian election has been postponed due to Covid-19. I should have known.
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Stevenson’s army, March 26
Take a moment to consider the enormity of what just happened and the even greater enormity of what has to happen now. The Senate approved an 880-page bill approving extra spending of $2.2 Trillion. Until now, total discretionary spending in FY 2020 was planned to be $1.119 Trillion. So the government now has to spend twice as much as was already appropriated.
That $2.2 Trillion amounts to a 46% increase in total federal spending, which includes $2.9 Trillion in mandatory spending. The deficit for FY2020, originally estimated at $1.073 Trillion, will now more than triple, given the new spending and the shortfalls in revenue because of the economic lockdown.
So the national debt held by the public will surge from $16.8 Trillion by another $3.3 Trillion in one year.
In addition to managing the exploding debt,the US government has to manage the stimulus. Small businesses have been promised $350 Billion in loans. Yet the Small Business Administration, with only 3,877 people, has an annual budget of only $665 million and will now have to process claims for more than 500 times as much.
Throughout the government, agencies will have to figure out regulations, develop forms, establish processes for reviewing and approving them, and then disbursing the money. And if they don’t, or don’t do it fast enough, the stimulus will fail.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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