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What they don’t say counts

The State Department issued this Joint Statement of Special Presidential Envoy Richard Grenell, Ambassador Philip Kosnett, and Special Representative for the Western Balkans Matthew Palmer on Kosovo yesterday:

The United States stands with the people of Kosovo.  We commend the continued efforts of the health professionals and others who are working hard, at great risk, to reduce the progress of COVID-19 in Kosovo.  In this time of uncertainty, we urge Kosovo’s leaders to follow Kosovo’s Constitution and the rule of law.  We are committed to working with any government formed through the constitutional process.

In addition, we continue to urge Kosovo’s leaders to lift the tariffs completely.  We believe the tariffs are harming the people of Kosovo by hindering regional cooperation against COVID-19 – including by delaying the entry into Kosovo of needed supplies – and hindering economic growth.

We want to make clear there is no secret plan for land swaps between Kosovo and Serbia, as some have speculated. Special Presidential Envoy Richard Grenell has never seen nor discussed such a plan.  The U.S. Government’s focus on supporting the recent agreements to re-establish air, rail, and highway connections between Kosovo and Serbia aims to improve the economy and create economic momentum.  We believe this momentum will give new energy to a dialogue process that would lead to mutual recognition.

This is at least in part a response to Shaun Byrnes’ A Bad Deal posted here two weeks ago, but it is also an attempt to justify the Trump Administration’s unfriendly policy toward Kosovo’s Albin Kurti-led government.

Let’s take it para by para:

1. That phrase “stands with the people of” is a tip-off, as it is used to distinguish between the people and the government of a foreign country. It’s what the Americans say about adversaries like Iran: we stand with the Iranian people. The US embassy put out an unusual statement supporting the holding of the no-confidence vote that brought down Prime Minister Kurti’s government earlier this week. This happened in the face of European opposition to the no-confidence vote. The bottom line is clear: at a moment when the Kosovo government was confronting the Covid-19 challenge, the Trump Administration decided nevertheless to push for the government to fall.
2. Urging the complete unilateral lifting of the tariffs ignores a basic principle of diplomacy: reciprocity. The Trump Administration is asking Kosovo to meet a Serbian demand without anything in return. What Pristina has sought is suspension of the de-recognition campaign that Serbia has conducted worldwide. Is it really too much to ask that a country that wants Kosovo to buy its goods to stop trying to get other countries to reverse their recognition of Kosovo? In any event, Kurti did lift some of the tariffs unilaterally and indicated a willingness to go further, without the slightest sign of reciprocity on Serbia’s part. Where is the pressure on Serbia to reciprocate?
3. The notion that Grenell has never seen a plan is not credible. Several, of uncertain origins, have been published. Presidents Thaci and Vucic have both referred to land swap discussions. Even if the US was not involved in those (which is unlikely), US intelligence will have reported on them, including any maps that were exchanged. Grenell is the acting Director of National Intelligence. It is notable that Kosnett and Palmer are not associated with this denial of having seen a plan. It suggests they have.

Like many government statements, this one tells us more by what it omits than by what it includes, but there is one important inclusion: the line at the end referring to mutual recognition. Note there too is an omission. If land/people swaps are off the table, it should have read “mutual recognition within their current borders” or “mutual recognition of sovereignty and territorial integrity.” What they don’t say counts.