Day: March 29, 2020
Peace Picks| March 29- April 4
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- Live Webcast: Big Brother: Internet Age Surveillance and Censorship in the Middle East| March 30, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Post-9/11, concerns over governmental stability, political extremism, and terrorism drove a surge in security-minded surveillance worldwide. Following the regional diffusion of social media and the Arab Spring a decade later, the pendulum in the Middle East swung back towards individual liberty and privacy. Today, the tension between these two poles is tighter than ever, as cutting-edge and intrusive surveillance programs in China and Singapore have proven effective if not essential to tracking and thwarting the spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic.
MEI is pleased to announce a panel which will seek to address several questions around censorship and surveillance in the Middle East: What purposes do they intend to serve, and are they effective? What are the excesses and human implications of these practices? Can censorship and surveillance play a responsible role in containing disinformation and thwarting disease, or are they doomed to be abused by the powers that be? And what will the future of these technologies look like in the region, as the age of interconnectedness allows governments to learn from one another, for better or worse?
Speakers:
Marc Owen Jones: Assistant professor, Hamad bin Khalifa University
Sahar Khamis: Associate professor, University of Maryland
Raed Labassi: Technologist and researcher, Amnesty International
Mohammad Soliman: Non-resident scholar, MEI
Michael Sexton (Moderator): Fellow and director of the Cybersecurity Initiative, MEI
- Live Webcast: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine: The Gaza Strip| March 31, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP) are pleased to host a webinar series: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine. nations around the globe, the COVID-19 crisis is both creating new challenges and exacerbating existing ones. This is especially true in Israel-Palestine, where Israelis and Palestinians live in close proximity, all under overarching Israeli authority but under regimes that afford them separate and grossly unequal access to health services.
In this context, the webinar series, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy and FMEP’s Lara Friedman, will examine how the COVID-19 crisis is impacting the very different and yet highly interconnected environments in Israel-Palestine, highlighting expert voices on the ground.
Speakers:
Tania Hary: Executive director, Gisha-Legal Center for Freedom of Movement
Dr. Ghada Al Jadba : Chief of Health Programme in the Gaza Strip, UNRWA
Omar Shaban: Founder of director, PalThink for Strategic Studies
Khaled Elgindy (Co-host): Senior fellow and Director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman (Co-host): President, FMEP
- Live Webcast: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine: The West Bank and East Jerusalem| April 1, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP) are pleased to host a webinar series: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine. nations around the globe, the COVID-19 crisis is both creating new challenges and exacerbating existing ones. This is especially true in Israel-Palestine, where Israelis and Palestinians live in close proximity, all under overarching Israeli authority but under regimes that afford them separate and grossly unequal access to health services.
In this context, the webinar series, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy and FMEP’s Lara Friedman, will examine how the COVID-19 crisis is impacting the very different and yet highly interconnected environments in Israel-Palestine, highlighting expert voices on the ground.
Speakers:
Tareq Baconi: Analyst for Israel/Palestine and Economics of Conflict, International Crisis Group
Jessica Montell: Executive director, HaMoked
Khaled Elgindy (Co-host): Senior fellow and Director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman (Co-host): President, FMEP
- Live Webcast: Crisis Upon Crisis: The Geopolitical & Economic Implications of the Pandemic| April 1, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM | Carnegie Middle East Center | Register Here
With over 530,000 infections and 25,000 deaths worldwide, COVID-19, the disease caused by the fast-spreading new coronavirus, has caused global havoc. Beyond the devastating human toll, this pandemic has caused global supply and demand shocks, economic turmoil, and financial market collapse, with the likely onset of a global recession. Oil prices have plummeted as pandemic-related policies, including global travel restrictions, have decreased demand. Measures to contain the pandemic have hurt key sectors such as tourism and disrupted production, manufacturing, and trade, leading to significant job losses. For the Middle East and North Africa—especially fragile and conflict-ridden countries such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya—the virus has become a major near-term challenge. Before the virus struck, many countries in the region were already facing significant economic and political challenges, including crumbling healthcare systems. Today, there are those that are incapable of providing necessary stimulus packages to their economies.
In this broader context, what are the prospects for global economic and financial systems in the coming months? What implications will the coronavirus have on the geopolitics and economics of the Middle East and North Africa? Similarly, how are other regions reacting, for instance Latin America? What are the available policy options to address the economic and financial fallout of the pandemic?
Speakers:
Jihad Azour is the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund.
Amer Bisat is the managing director at Blackrock and a former senior economist at the International Monetary Fund.
Moisés Naím is a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where his research focuses on international economics and global politics.
Maha Yahya is the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
- Live Webcast: Unemployment Insurance during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Reducing the Impact of this Economic Downturn| April 1, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic, along with the critical public health measures taken to resist it, has already resulted in millions of workers being laid off and families threatened with financial ruin. Fortunately, the unemployment insurance (UI) system serves as the first line of defense for laid off workers. However, as state and federal policymakers continue to move forward with substantial changes to UI to bolster its effectiveness, important policy questions arise: What is different about this crisis that necessitates UI reform? What do time-limited reforms aim to accomplish? What can we reasonably expect the UI system to do for workers and the economy?
Speakers:
Katharine Abraham: Director, Maryland Center for Economics and Policy; Professor, Survey Methodology, Professor, Economics, The University of Maryland
Arindajit Dube: Professor, Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Susan N. Houseman: Vice-President and Director of Research, Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
Ryan Nunn: Policy Director, The Hamilton Project, Fellow, Economics Studies, The Brookings Institution
Jay Shambaugh (Moderator): Director, The Hamilton Project, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, The Brookings Institution
- Live Webcast: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine: Israel| April 2, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP) are pleased to host a webinar series: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine. nations around the globe, the COVID-19 crisis is both creating new challenges and exacerbating existing ones. This is especially true in Israel-Palestine, where Israelis and Palestinians live in close proximity, all under overarching Israeli authority but under regimes that afford them separate and grossly unequal access to health services.
In this context, the webinar series, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy and FMEP’s Lara Friedman, will examine how the COVID-19 crisis is impacting the very different and yet highly interconnected environments in Israel-Palestine, highlighting expert voices on the ground.
Speakers:
Henriette Chacar: Editor and reporter, +972 Magazine
Ran Goldstein: Executive director, Physicians for Human Rights-Israel
Khaled Elgindy (Co-host): Senior fellow and Director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman (Co-host): President, FMEP
- Live Webcast: Biological Warfare and Pandemics in the Middle East: Confronting a Growing Crisis| April 2, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The global outbreak of COVID-19 has highlighted the necessity for cooperation among governments in the Middle East, creating an opportunity to overcome geopolitical rivalries in an effort to contain the virus. Unfortunately, the damage of COVID-19 in the Middle East has been quick and massive. There is evidence of some information sharing and training exchanges between Israel and the West Bank, but there is a much greater disparity in information sharing between Israel and the rest of the Arab world.
Regional cooperation efforts for containing COVID-19 can be a roadmap for an approach to counter bioterrorism and biological warfare in the region. Although experts have historically agreed that the threat of biological warfare in the region is low, advances in technology drastically reduce the cost and time of developing biological weapons. Groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have expressed an interest in acquiring biological weapons, creating a looming threat for regional security.
Speakers:
Jessica Bell: Senior program officer, Global Biological Policy and Programs, Nuclear Threat Initiative
Asha George: Executive director, Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense
Chen Kane: Director, Middle East Nonproliferation Program, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Bilal Saab (Moderator): Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense and Security Program Middle East Institute
- Live Webcast: The Effects of the Coronavirus Outbreak on Marinalized Communities | April 2, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 3:45 PM | Brookings Institution | Register Here
As the coronavirus outbreak rapidly spreads, existing social and economic inequalities in society have been exposed and exacerbated. State and local governments across the country, on the advice of public health officials, have shuttered businesses of all types and implemented other social distancing recommendations. Such measures assume a certain basic level of affluence, which many in low-income and vulnerable communities do not have and as a result, millions of people have lost their jobs.
On Thursday, April 2, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar discussion to address how the coronavirus pandemic is impacting low-income and vulnerable communities. Panelists will discuss what measures officials can take to protect marginalized communities as the country continues to fight the virus.
Speakers:
Rashawn Ray (Moderator): David M. Rubenstein Fellow, Governance Studies
Camille Busette: Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, Governance Studies, Metropolitan Policy Program; Director, Race, Prosperity, and Inclusion Initiative
Makada Henry-Nickie: Fellow, Governance Studies
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Stevenson’s army, March 29
– NYT has a long piece on how the US suffered a “lost month” of inadequate testing to control the pandemic. And while the most senior officials could have done more, many of the problems appear to be at the senior career level.
The members of the coronavirus task force typically devoted only five or 10 minutes, often at the end of contentious meetings, to talk about testing, several participants recalled. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, its leaders assured the others, had developed a diagnostic model that would be rolled out quickly as a first step.
But as the deadly virus from China spread with ferocity across the United States between late January and early March, large-scale testing of people who might have been infected did not happen — because of technical flaws, regulatory hurdles, business-as-usual bureaucracies and lack of leadership at multiple levels, according to interviews with more than 50 current and former public health officials, administration officials, senior scientists and companyexecutives.
The
result was a lost month, when the world’s richest country — armed with
some of the most highly trained scientists and infectious disease
specialists — squandered its best chance of containing the virus’s
spread. Instead, Americans were left largely blind to the scale of a
looming public health catastrophe.
-NYT also has a case study of failure — an effort begun 12 years ago to build a larger supply of better ventilators.
– But — Job Alert — Politico says the “national security priesthood” is now recognizing the need for experts on global health.
– And to help you get ready, here are several new CRS studies of coronavirus issues.
Stay safe.
I missed this from Charlie yesterday:
– The House approved the CARES Act [everything gets an acronym nowadays — for Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act] by voice vote. Renegade Kentucky Congressman Massie tried to force a rollcall, but it failed because it didn’t receive a sufficient second of 44 supporters.
-President Trump signed it [with no Democrats invited to the signing ceremony] but issued a signing statement saying he would not comply with provisions requiring the new special inspector general to send reports to Congress. As I’ve said in class, presidents can increase their legal authorities by such actions. And this reduces congressional oversight of the new law.
– The president also issued an executive order under the Defense Production Act [DPA] to force General Motors to produce ventilators. This action had been delayed for more than a week because of business opposition.
– I’ve also said in class that authorities matter. Trump announced yesterday that trade staffer Peter Navarro would be in charge of DPA action. He probably doesn’t realize that, as an unconfirmed WH staffer, Navarro is not an “officer of the United States” and is not allowed any directive authority. I’m not even sure what the chain of command beneath the president is for DPA, but Navarro can still make calls and send messages … and hope for compliance.
– Next week we’ll talk abut the budget process. Though I consider myself a budget hawk, I agree with NYT’s Neil Irwin that these extraordinary expenditures are necessary.
– WaPO has an oped on how to structure the coronavirus fight that I find persuasive, so here it is.
– FYI, as of last night, the US had still tested only 579,000 people for the virus. Where are those millions of test kits?
–Civ-mil clash:NYT reports that the US commander in Iraq has been ordered to plan attacks on Iran-linked forces but has warned against implementing them.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Resignation
If you want to know where the virus is, consult the Johns Hopkins map. To make a long story short, we have a worldwide pandemic just beginning the step rise portion of its logarithmic increase. But we know the situation is a lot worse, since Russia and most of Africa are reporting few cases. Even in the US, now with the top number of cases in the world, testing is still so rare that the numbers could be a wild underestimate. The inestimable Dr. Anthony Fauci is estimating 100-200,000 future deaths in the US. This is many, many times the number of deaths from polio at its peak in 1952.
But where are we in our effort to understand and come to terms with this disaster? How did this happen? Why weren’t we better prepared? Why did the US not react more quickly and effectively? The answers are all too clear: in addition to the initial Chinese effort to keep the virus secret, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) combined through error, neglect, and over-regulation to slow the testing vital to isolating Covid-19 and getting it under control.
What should we expect of our political leadership at this point? Nothing good if it remains the same. If Trump really were the hard-charging chief executive he portrayed in his TV show, he would long ago have fired the heads of the responsible agencies. But he isn’t, and he fears what they would say about him once released from government service. HHS Secretary Aznar is particularly sycophantic, so he is presumably safe. The other two may end up sacrificed, but way too late. CDC and FDA are going to need a thorough shaking up, but any new Trump Administration appointees aren’t likely to be more competent than their predecessors.
The real culprit here is the President. He played down the burgeoning epidemic and thereby signaled that it didn’t merit emergency priority. President Trump was more concerned with the stock market numbers than the numbers of infected Americans. He still is, signaling that he might be “reopen” the economy by Easter. This is irresponsible: until testing in the US becomes ubiquitous and the number of cases demonstrably levels off–something weeks if not months in the future, it simply won’t be safe to send most people back to work. Doing so would infect millions more and cause more economic damage than the virus has inflicted so far, which is already dramatic.
We are talking many trillions in lost production, and trillions more in government expenditures to cushion the blow and meet the health challenges. That doesn’t even count the values of the lives lost.
Things aren’t going to get better any time soon. I’m resigned to that. But resignation is what Donald Trump should do. He was never qualified by intellect, temperament, or experience to be President of the United States. He is now demonstrating that at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives. If ever there was a president who should resign, this one is it. That he won’t is just one more demonstration of his unsuitability for the job.
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