Month: March 2020
Stevenson’s army, March 29
– NYT has a long piece on how the US suffered a “lost month” of inadequate testing to control the pandemic. And while the most senior officials could have done more, many of the problems appear to be at the senior career level.
The members of the coronavirus task force typically devoted only five or 10 minutes, often at the end of contentious meetings, to talk about testing, several participants recalled. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, its leaders assured the others, had developed a diagnostic model that would be rolled out quickly as a first step.
But as the deadly virus from China spread with ferocity across the United States between late January and early March, large-scale testing of people who might have been infected did not happen — because of technical flaws, regulatory hurdles, business-as-usual bureaucracies and lack of leadership at multiple levels, according to interviews with more than 50 current and former public health officials, administration officials, senior scientists and companyexecutives.
The
result was a lost month, when the world’s richest country — armed with
some of the most highly trained scientists and infectious disease
specialists — squandered its best chance of containing the virus’s
spread. Instead, Americans were left largely blind to the scale of a
looming public health catastrophe.
-NYT also has a case study of failure — an effort begun 12 years ago to build a larger supply of better ventilators.
– But — Job Alert — Politico says the “national security priesthood” is now recognizing the need for experts on global health.
– And to help you get ready, here are several new CRS studies of coronavirus issues.
Stay safe.
I missed this from Charlie yesterday:
– The House approved the CARES Act [everything gets an acronym nowadays — for Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act] by voice vote. Renegade Kentucky Congressman Massie tried to force a rollcall, but it failed because it didn’t receive a sufficient second of 44 supporters.
-President Trump signed it [with no Democrats invited to the signing ceremony] but issued a signing statement saying he would not comply with provisions requiring the new special inspector general to send reports to Congress. As I’ve said in class, presidents can increase their legal authorities by such actions. And this reduces congressional oversight of the new law.
– The president also issued an executive order under the Defense Production Act [DPA] to force General Motors to produce ventilators. This action had been delayed for more than a week because of business opposition.
– I’ve also said in class that authorities matter. Trump announced yesterday that trade staffer Peter Navarro would be in charge of DPA action. He probably doesn’t realize that, as an unconfirmed WH staffer, Navarro is not an “officer of the United States” and is not allowed any directive authority. I’m not even sure what the chain of command beneath the president is for DPA, but Navarro can still make calls and send messages … and hope for compliance.
– Next week we’ll talk abut the budget process. Though I consider myself a budget hawk, I agree with NYT’s Neil Irwin that these extraordinary expenditures are necessary.
– WaPO has an oped on how to structure the coronavirus fight that I find persuasive, so here it is.
– FYI, as of last night, the US had still tested only 579,000 people for the virus. Where are those millions of test kits?
–Civ-mil clash:NYT reports that the US commander in Iraq has been ordered to plan attacks on Iran-linked forces but has warned against implementing them.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Resignation
If you want to know where the virus is, consult the Johns Hopkins map. To make a long story short, we have a worldwide pandemic just beginning the step rise portion of its logarithmic increase. But we know the situation is a lot worse, since Russia and most of Africa are reporting few cases. Even in the US, now with the top number of cases in the world, testing is still so rare that the numbers could be a wild underestimate. The inestimable Dr. Anthony Fauci is estimating 100-200,000 future deaths in the US. This is many, many times the number of deaths from polio at its peak in 1952.
But where are we in our effort to understand and come to terms with this disaster? How did this happen? Why weren’t we better prepared? Why did the US not react more quickly and effectively? The answers are all too clear: in addition to the initial Chinese effort to keep the virus secret, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) combined through error, neglect, and over-regulation to slow the testing vital to isolating Covid-19 and getting it under control.
What should we expect of our political leadership at this point? Nothing good if it remains the same. If Trump really were the hard-charging chief executive he portrayed in his TV show, he would long ago have fired the heads of the responsible agencies. But he isn’t, and he fears what they would say about him once released from government service. HHS Secretary Aznar is particularly sycophantic, so he is presumably safe. The other two may end up sacrificed, but way too late. CDC and FDA are going to need a thorough shaking up, but any new Trump Administration appointees aren’t likely to be more competent than their predecessors.
The real culprit here is the President. He played down the burgeoning epidemic and thereby signaled that it didn’t merit emergency priority. President Trump was more concerned with the stock market numbers than the numbers of infected Americans. He still is, signaling that he might be “reopen” the economy by Easter. This is irresponsible: until testing in the US becomes ubiquitous and the number of cases demonstrably levels off–something weeks if not months in the future, it simply won’t be safe to send most people back to work. Doing so would infect millions more and cause more economic damage than the virus has inflicted so far, which is already dramatic.
We are talking many trillions in lost production, and trillions more in government expenditures to cushion the blow and meet the health challenges. That doesn’t even count the values of the lives lost.
Things aren’t going to get better any time soon. I’m resigned to that. But resignation is what Donald Trump should do. He was never qualified by intellect, temperament, or experience to be President of the United States. He is now demonstrating that at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives. If ever there was a president who should resign, this one is it. That he won’t is just one more demonstration of his unsuitability for the job.
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What they don’t say counts
The State Department issued this Joint Statement of Special Presidential Envoy Richard Grenell, Ambassador Philip Kosnett, and Special Representative for the Western Balkans Matthew Palmer on Kosovo yesterday:
The United States stands with the people of Kosovo. We commend the continued efforts of the health professionals and others who are working hard, at great risk, to reduce the progress of COVID-19 in Kosovo. In this time of uncertainty, we urge Kosovo’s leaders to follow Kosovo’s Constitution and the rule of law. We are committed to working with any government formed through the constitutional process.
In addition, we continue to urge Kosovo’s leaders to lift the tariffs completely. We believe the tariffs are harming the people of Kosovo by hindering regional cooperation against COVID-19 – including by delaying the entry into Kosovo of needed supplies – and hindering economic growth.
We want to make clear there is no secret plan for land swaps between Kosovo and Serbia, as some have speculated. Special Presidential Envoy Richard Grenell has never seen nor discussed such a plan. The U.S. Government’s focus on supporting the recent agreements to re-establish air, rail, and highway connections between Kosovo and Serbia aims to improve the economy and create economic momentum. We believe this momentum will give new energy to a dialogue process that would lead to mutual recognition.
This is at least in part a response to Shaun Byrnes’ A Bad Deal posted here two weeks ago, but it is also an attempt to justify the Trump Administration’s unfriendly policy toward Kosovo’s Albin Kurti-led government.
Let’s take it para by para:
- That phrase “stands with the people of” is a tip-off, as it is used to distinguish between the people and the government of a foreign country. It’s what the Americans say about adversaries like Iran: we stand with the Iranian people. The US embassy put out an unusual statement supporting the holding of the no-confidence vote that brought down Prime Minister Kurti’s government earlier this week. This happened in the face of European opposition to the no-confidence vote. The bottom line is clear: at a moment when the Kosovo government was confronting the Covid-19 challenge, the Trump Administration decided nevertheless to push for the government to fall.
- Urging the complete unilateral lifting of the tariffs ignores a basic principle of diplomacy: reciprocity. The Trump Administration is asking Kosovo to meet a Serbian demand without anything in return. What Pristina has sought is suspension of the de-recognition campaign that Serbia has conducted worldwide. Is it really too much to ask that a country that wants Kosovo to buy its goods to stop trying to get other countries to reverse their recognition of Kosovo? In any event, Kurti did lift some of the tariffs unilaterally and indicated a willingness to go further, without the slightest sign of reciprocity on Serbia’s part. Where is the pressure on Serbia to reciprocate?
- The notion that Grenell has never seen a plan is not credible. Several, of uncertain origins, have been published. Presidents Thaci and Vucic have both referred to land swap discussions. Even if the US was not involved in those (which is unlikely), US intelligence will have reported on them, including any maps that were exchanged. Grenell is the acting Director of National Intelligence. It is notable that Kosnett and Palmer are not associated with this denial of having seen a plan. It suggests they have.
Like many government statements, this one tells us more by what it omits than by what it includes, but there is one important inclusion: the line at the end referring to mutual recognition. Note there too is an omission. If land/people swaps are off the table, it should have read “mutual recognition within their current borders” or “mutual recognition of sovereignty and territorial integrity.” What they don’t say counts.
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Albin’s fall could be Hashim’s
Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti lost a vote of confidence yesterday, abandoned by his main LDK coalition partner. He remains in office as caretaker, though it is unclear to me whether he’ll get another crack at forming a government. More likely he’ll be forced to cede to someone else or take the country to an early election. The latter would be difficult with Covid-19 around.
The Trump Administration welcomes Albin’s fall, as he was refusing to bend to its demand that he unilaterally abolish all the tariffs his predecessor had levied on Serbian goods, in retaliation for Belgrade’s campaign against recognition of Kosovo. Washington has abandoned the traditional American policy of support for Kosovo’s democracy and territorial integrity and is now twisting Pristina’s political arms in favor of a deal with Serbia that would damage both. There have been many ugly moments in Kosovo, so this one doesn’t really rate in the hall of infamy. But it isn’t pretty.
Albin was trying to deny emergency powers (to deal with Covid-19) to President Thaci because he feared Hashim would use them to cut a deal with Serbia unacceptable to the government. This despite the fact that both the parliament and the constitutional court have said the government should have the responsibility of negotiating with Belgrade. The Prime Minister made the mistake of firing an important figure from his LDK coalition partner when the Interior Minister suggested the President should get the emergency powers he wants. That, along with intense American pressure, seems to have turned the LDK against Albin.
I suppose Hashim will now try to cobble together a government more to his liking that will grant him the emergency powers he has sought. Albin is in a weakened position, as his party can’t govern without coalition partners that are unlikely to be available. But there are signs Albin would do well in new elections. The country is solidly against the kind of exchange of territory with Serbia that Hashim is open to, but if he can he’ll try to proceed with the deal with Belgrade as quickly as feasible after the April 26 Serbian election.*
The big question is why. All of Pristina thinks the Americans have promised Hashim protection from prosecution, in particular by the Special Chamber that operates in The Hague to deal with particular crimes committed before, during, and after the 1999 Kosovo war. I don’t know whether that is true, and I’ve long doubted that the Special Chamber prosecutor has the needed evidence to indict. But the prosecutor is an American the Trump Administration appointed. It is not hard to imagine he could be told to indict or not indict.
The President is no doubt concerned about his legacy and doesn’t want an indictment to mar it. But he should think twice before going ahead with a land/people swap that could lead to the end of the Serb presence in Kosovo, because those not on territory traded to Serbia will either flee or gradually relocate over the next few years. Kosovo would then be ripe plucking for Albania’s eastern province. The father of his country could find his legacy turned to the political equivalent of dust.
*Correction, 3/26: the Serbian election has been postponed due to Covid-19. I should have known.
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Stevenson’s army, March 26
Take a moment to consider the enormity of what just happened and the even greater enormity of what has to happen now. The Senate approved an 880-page bill approving extra spending of $2.2 Trillion. Until now, total discretionary spending in FY 2020 was planned to be $1.119 Trillion. So the government now has to spend twice as much as was already appropriated.
That $2.2 Trillion amounts to a 46% increase in total federal spending, which includes $2.9 Trillion in mandatory spending. The deficit for FY2020, originally estimated at $1.073 Trillion, will now more than triple, given the new spending and the shortfalls in revenue because of the economic lockdown.
So the national debt held by the public will surge from $16.8 Trillion by another $3.3 Trillion in one year.
In addition to managing the exploding debt,the US government has to manage the stimulus. Small businesses have been promised $350 Billion in loans. Yet the Small Business Administration, with only 3,877 people, has an annual budget of only $665 million and will now have to process claims for more than 500 times as much.
Throughout the government, agencies will have to figure out regulations, develop forms, establish processes for reviewing and approving them, and then disbursing the money. And if they don’t, or don’t do it fast enough, the stimulus will fail.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Impending disaster
That still rising curve for the number of US cases of Covid-19 since the 100th case signals impending disaster. Yes, the US is much larger than the European countries nearby, but it is far smaller than China, whose curve has (according to Chinese data) leveled off. We are still doubling the number of cases every 2.5 days or so. Ten more days of that and we’ll be at 400,000. By the time of Easter, that would mean 50 million cases, unless something dramatic bends the curve to the horizontal. Only extensive testing and distancing will make that happen.
But President Trump is doing his best to ensure it. He ensured from the first that testing capacity would be limited, apparently because he wanted the numbers reported in the press to stay low. He initially opposed social distancing. By mooting the possibility of churches being full by Easter, he is signaling to the 30% or so of the population that regards him as reliable on corona virus risks that they needn’t worry too much. He continues to express more concern about the economy than about the health impact of the virus. He wants Americans back at work, despite the likelihood that sending them there prematurely would create a second wave of infection.
You would think he’d be happy with the $2 trillion stimulus bill the Congress is on the verge of passing (hopefully). It will pump a lot of money into businesses and send cash to about half the adults in the country, no doubt with his name somewhere on the envelope. But no, that is not enough. He wants to prove the experts wrong in warning that a premature return to work will be catastrophic. He wants to be right and get credit for his genius.
The lies the President has indulged in about Covid-19 are legion and dangerous. He is trying desperately to deny responsibility and shape reality to his own self-image. His daily press conferences are bozotic. He says one thing and the experts say the opposite. Hillary Clinton was certainly correct when she said he lacked the temperament to be President. But he also lacks the knowledge, willingness to learn, wisdom to listen to experts, and judgment required to make wise decisions. He is steering the United States inexorably to disaster.
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