Month: March 2020
Our race is “human”
What is it like, this time we are spending distancing ourselves from others and trying to avoid falling victim to Covid-19? I wrote this piece last Thursday, but it still applies:
I’m finding it peaceful and even quietly enjoyable. Johns Hopkins/SAIS was already scheduled to be on Spring Break, so I wasn’t expecting to be working as usual. I had planned to spend most of the 10 days in San Antonio and Atlanta enjoying my children, daughters-in-law, and grandchildren. Canceling that trip was a big disappointment.
But staying at home, trying to catch up on both professional and personal business, getting ready to teach via Zoom and talk to students on Skype, ordering supplies to be delivered, occasionally puttering in the garden, listening to music, and watching a bit more TV than usual is not a bad way to wait out an epidemic. Our long walks in the neighborhood are particularly enjoyable.
Yesterday it was a mid-afternoon 4.5 miles. The weather was sunny and warm, so lots of people were out in this suburban-seeming part of the District of Columbia. Parents and children, many on bikes and scooters. There was little traffic. Rush hour was noticeably less frenetic than usual. People are saying hello as they pass, but they don’t tarry, and some go out of their way to maintain that six feet of separation.
It is all deceptively non-threatening. You wouldn’t know what we are all doing is trying to avoid a virus that could threaten our lives, especially but not exclusively in my age group. I imagine sooner or later most of us will get it, but it would be better not to get sick at the peak of the epidemic, when hospital beds will be full and personnel scarce.
Meanwhile our various governments–Federal, state and local–are trying hard to recover from a late start caused by the lack of testing capability and the associated contact tracing. Even now, tests are few compared to countries that have been successful in responding effectively, like South Korea and Hong Kong. Hospitals are approaching capacity in some urban centers, but there is still a long way to go and the system isn’t likely to be able to meet the demand.
For months President Trump tried to talk down the risk, in an apparent effort to calm the stock market and limit the economic damage. But the virus wasn’t listening. His failure to properly prepare and react is now costing trillions as the economy slows markedly, people lose their jobs, and businesses start to go under. He wants checks sent to big US companies and American taxpayers, hoping that $1200 or so will assuage their anger before the November election. He is far less concerned with those who have no health insurance (he is still trying to undo Obamacare in the courts), without having even hinted at what would replace it), those who can’t live on unemployment insurance, and those who don’t get sick or family leave.
Yesterday I received our census questionnaire, which I happily filled out on line. But I was not happy with the choices for defining my race and national origins. I grew up in an America where white Anglo-Saxon protestants (WASPs) were the majority. Jews and even Catholics did not fit there. We were minorities. Now I am expected to check that I am “white.” How did that happen? There just weren’t enough Anglo-Saxon protestants, so the majority expanded itself by accepting non-Anglo-Saxons, Catholics, and anyone else who would accept the label “white.”
That label however doesn’t just refer to the color of my skin, which admittedly is whiter and pinker than my wife’s or my children’s, who are all “black.” “White” is increasingly an ethnic identity, one that has taken on a political significance in Trump’s America. He has declared himself a “nationalist,” by which he meant to convey to his supporters “white” nationalist, or in the terminology of my youth a white supremacist or racist. I don’t care to be associated, however remotely, with that ethnic identity. So I checked “other” on the census form and wrote in for race “human.” I hope many others will do likewise.
In my America, I’m pleased to say, there are many who might. The folks I see walking in this quiet neighborhood are a rainbow of colors and faiths. Their yard signs proclaim welcome to others, no matter where they come from or what language they speak. I’m pleased to live among such people. We believed Covid-19 was real from the first. We also think global warming is real and caused in large part to human activity. We are appalled at the disinformation our President is spreading in an effort to coverup his own culpability for a disastrous epidemic.
Human is our “race.”
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Stevenson’s army, March 21
– NYT reports the interagency clash on how to respond to the latest attack on US forces in Iraq.
– WaPo reports the intelligence community gave numerous warnings about the pandemic threat.
– No surprise here: NYT says lobbyists are working to grab a piece of the big stimulus bill.
-WaPo fact checker gives both sides on claim that NSC reorganization harmed health response.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Bosnia needs Biden
Ismet Fatih Čančar, who holds a BA in Economics from Sarajevo School of Science and Technology and University of Buckingham and an MA in International Political Economy from King’s College London (where he studies under the Chevening scholarship program awarded by the United Kingdom), writes:
The results of last week’s primary confirmed the heavy frontrunner. Winning four out of six states that voted, Joe Biden has completed a turnaround rarely seen in American politics. Barring a political scandal, Biden is the preemptive candidate to secure the nomination of the Democratic party. When he faces Trump in November, it will be a clash of two opposing ideologies. However, some 5000 miles away, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, a small country in the Balkans, Biden’s win could mean salvation.
The history and present
Biden’s history with Bosnia goes back to the 1990s. During his Senate Foreign Affairs Committee tenure, he was a staunch supporter of American intervention to stop ethnic cleansing and genocide of Muslims in Bosnia. Following Joe Lieberman’s and Bob Dole’s lead, he was also one of the first to support lifting the arms embargo on Bosnian Muslims and advocated for “lift and strike” – a NATO air power mission. Through those murky times, Biden’s passionate speeches in the Senate drew the sympathies of Bosnians as a rare, genuine friend.
The last visit of a high-level US official to Bosnia was in 2009 – and it was Joe Biden. During his stay he urged the political elites to turn the page from nationalistic politics and focus on real reforms that would pave the way for EU and NATO accession. Little has changed since he last set foot in Sarajevo. On the contrary, the country has regressed on its Euro-Atlantic road.
The recent political crisis, whose chief architect is Milorad Dodik, has once again put the country in crisis. Calling actively for secession from the Bosnian state, the nationalist Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) has a history of threatening peace in Bosnia. While Dodik is already under sanctions by the US, the failure of the EU to follow this course of action has led to lukewarm results.
Additionally, the Kosovo-Serbia issue has regained momentum with US engagement. According to this report, redrawing borders along ethnic lines is back on the menu. Such a solution bears catastrophic consequences. Dodik has been abundantly clear he intends to use this partition in pursuing the independence of Republika Srpska. But more so, politics of this kind move us further away from what the US goal for the region was in the first place – the establishment of liberal democracies and the integration of the Balkans into the modern Western world.
Restoring US credibility
In his platform published in Foreign Policy, Joe Biden has put strengthening democracy at the helm of his global agenda. He has committed to making the United States prepared to lead again “not just with the example of our power but also with the power of our example”. The challenge the United States will face under Biden is restoring its credibility as a world beacon of democracy that entails an integral respect for human rights and opposition to authoritarianism and nationalism. Bosnia and Herzegovina could be a good starting point.
Biden’s reengagement could shift the focus of the American administration to help solve the structural issues in the country. It could safeguard Bosnia by countering the breakthrough of Russian interference through Dayton’s Peace Accords – which Holbrooke himself said would need upgrading. Being a sui generis state with two entities and three constituent people, Bosnia is damned to be dysfunctional. The solution is chartering a new constitution of a civil (citizen) character on the basis of the civil constitutions many modern European countries possess. This is a condition Bosnia has to fulfill if it is ever to see the entrance doors of NATO and EU.
Handling such a complex issue would again grow America’s reputation in the world as a credible and trustworthy factor that can effectively address crises around the globe. However, the challenge also implies a risk of failure; the inability to gather partners along the way, primarily in right-wing Europe which is increasingly displaying a more xenophobic character. Bringing the EU along with US lead is mandatory for the region. I wrote earlier about the United Kingdom initiative in taking a more active role with its allies in Bosnia. Together, the Anglo-American partnership could establish a new leadership format. Biden’s personal experience in solving similar issues can lead the way.
For this to work, American pressure has to fall on Serbia to give up the Greater Serbian ideology, the same ideology that was responsible for the genocide of Muslims in Bosnia during the war. Until Serbia and Republika Srpska acknowledge what has been done under Milosevic’s and Karadzic’s rule – both in Bosnia and Kosovo – and stop the revisionism of settled historical records, no relationship will be prudent or friendly in the future. Furthermore, redrawing borders should be an absolute red line. Biden knows this. He experienced the consequences of Serbian ethno-national exclusivism first-hand and has understood that staying silent to nationalist ideologies is not an option. It instead leads to new conflicts in the Balkans.
If Biden really is as he says ready to “champion liberty and democracy, reclaim our credibility, and look with unrelenting optimism and determination toward our future” then keeping the status quo in Bosnia is counter-productive. The worst possible solution for Biden’s US, as the face of a democratic administration, is doing nothing. That would not only betray everything that was successfully done during the Clinton administration, which is deliberately undermined by the current Trump administration, but would also surrender Bosnia and the Balkans to growing Russian hegemony.
Making America great by making America good again
America cannot be made great again through Trump’s selfish and xenophobic media tirades that are music for right-wing ears all over the world. America can only be great if it establishes the far-reaching political vision that is occasionally seen in Biden’s election campaign. Freedom, peace and a sense of responsibility for the global good seeks the support of democratically-minded men and women all across the US, and especially Bosnian Americans who have found their second homeland in the United States.
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Stevenson’s army, March 20
It’s time to remind of a significant cultural difference showing up now in the pandemic crisis: The American military — and much of the rest of US government — does a lot of after action reviews and calls them “lessons learned” studies. The British military, more accurately,calls them “lessons identified.”
Now we know they knew — but didn’t act. NYT reports 3 major studies of a possible pandemic were conducted by HHS over the past 4 years. They identified many of the same problems now occurring. But little or nothing was done to better prepare.
Politico offers some lessons from WWII mobilization.
Sen.McConnell is now in talks with others about his recovery bill. It has several tax law provisions, meaning that Constitutionally the bill; must originate in the House. SInce the Senate wants to act first and quickly, they’ll have to take some other House-passed measure and tack on the massive new bill. It then has to go back to the House for approval.
I’m beginning to feel that this pandemic will be the defining event of the 21st century, at least for a long time to come. It has world-reshaping and devastating impact. The differences between Before and After will be profound. So I urge your attention this new FA article and to this revised Risk Assessment by the Eurasia group.
And if you’re not worried enough, see what Ebola czar Ron Klain predicts.
WOTR has a balanced assessment of the new Cybersecurity Solarium Commission report.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 19
-Senators are working to craft a huge $1-2 Trillion package of individual and company relief. Republicans are willing to give cash to people; Democrats are willing to give companies money, though with strings. An unnamed GOP Senator suggested calling the money “freedom payments” rather than “bailouts.” The administration’s $1 trillion plan is only the starting point.
– There is infighting, however, including trade hawk Peter Navarro’s ideas for using the crisis to reduce reliance on foreign medical suppliers.
– There’s also confusion in the coronavirus fight because Jared Kushner is running a “shadow task force” on the problem.
–Mitre Corp. has a good paper listing how to respond to the pandemic.
– 3 doctors forecast a roller coaster of peaks and troughs of extreme social distancing for another 18 months or more.
– Should the US military do more? SAIS prof Mark Cancian suggests ways. Charlie Dunlap [MGEN, USAF , retired] says no.
-Kurt Campbell says China is moving into global leadership as a result of the pandemic. [NYT has a similar article.]
– Former GOP official Bob Zoellick blames Trump tariffs for some medical shortages. And USTR made some limited cutbacks there.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 18
NYT has details of HHS’s plan for the pandemic. It envisions 18 months and multiple waves of infections and urges invocation of the Defense Production Act to obtain needed medical supplies. Here’s the link to the 100+ page plan.
OMB wants $48 billion more than the $8 billion emergency supplemental approved last week. Here are the details.
The bidding war is on, both for a stimulus package and especially direct payments to Americans. Schumer started at $750 Billion, McConnell urged $850 Billion. Trump yesterday, because he sad he likes round numbers, called for $1 trillion — and this morning’s reports say the administration wants $1.2 trillion. Various Senators have proposed $1000 checks to people, $2000, or regular $1000 for several months. It appears that McConnell wants to take the lead in developing a Senate package this week.
In other news, David Ignatius warns of acting DNI’s effort to cut NCTC.
A pilot in the Bin Laden raid tells his story.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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