Month: April 2020
Iraq between two hard places
Munquith Dagher suggests that Iran is acquiescing in Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s nomination as Iraq’s Prime Minister because of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ weakness in the wake the Soleimani assassination and the decline of its soft power inside Iraq. The smart money is betting that the parliament will approve al-Kadhimi, the third Prime Minister-designate in the current round, by the May 9 deadline, though that is far from guaranteed.
The former reformist intelligence chief, if he gains a majority, will face an unusually fraught situation in the midst of Ramadan:
- Covid-19: While the Shia authorities were quick to end religious ceremonies and the Ministry of Health has reacted reasonably well, the pandemic will strain Iraq’s limited health system.
- Oil prices: The collapse of oil prices to around $20/barrel wrecks havoc with Iraq’s budget, which is premised this year on $56/barrel. Oil represents virtually all of the government’s revenue and the country’s exports.
- Iran/US tensions: For the moment, Washington and Tehran have backed off from their tit-for-tat attacks between Iranian proxy militias and US forces inside Iraq. Washington has also approved the waivers Iraq needs to continue importing natural gas from Iran, which otherwise would have contravened US sanctions. But nothing has been resolved between Tehran and Washington. There is no reason to believe re-escalation can’t happen again some time during the year.
- Popular demonstrations: Until Covid-19 struck, Iraq was facing a popular uprising against its sectarian/ethnic political system that caused the resignation of (still acting) Prime Minister Adil Abdel Mahdi. Popular sentiment in favor of changing the system is still running strong.
- New elections: Al-Kadhimi will need to prepare for new elections as soon as Covid-19 conditions permit, under a law passed last December that provides for smaller single-member parliamentary constituencies intended to weaken the stranglehold of Baghdad’s political party bosses. But the new system requires a census that will be difficult to conduct unless Iraq issues new “smart” ID cards.
- Relations with the US: A bilateral “strategic framework” meeting is scheduled at the level of Under Secretary of State for June 2. While its formal agenda will be broader, the key issues have to do with security: whether US troops will stay in Iraq or leave, the continuing fight against ISIS resurgence in isolated rural areas (especially in the no-man’s-land between the Iraqi army and Kurdistan Regional Government peshmerga), and whether and how to repatriate the many Iraqi ISIS fighters still in Syria.
This would be a formidable set of challenges under any circumstances, but it will be especially difficult to meet them in the midst of a pandemic and a big global economic recession.
Therein, however, may lie the silver lining, at least for the longer term. Iraq can no longer afford to depend entirely on oil. It will be compelled to diversify its economy. It has already embarked on a World Bank project to end flaring of natural gas, it needs refineries, and its agricultural sector has great potential. Iraqi politicians have generally viewed the private sector as an enemy. They will need to drop that attitude.
There is also some good news on the security front, despite the real threat to both the US and Iraqi forces from Covid-19. The Iraqis aim for complete removal of US troops in the long term and believe they already no longer need them for the kinetic fight against ISIS. The Americans however also provide training and intelligence support that is still required, if not from the US bilaterally then perhaps indirectly through NATO, if that presence can be preserved.
Baghdad aims for balance between Iran, its powerful neighbor, and the more distant but still vital US. It wants good relations with both the Great Satan and the Axis of Evil. Iraq is between two hard places.
PS: For a far more pessimistic view, and hope the US can be helpful, see Samir Sumaida’ie’s piece.
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Stevenson’s army, April 30
– I do urge you to read the new Foreign Affairs piece by Prof. Brands and Peter Feaver and Will Imboden rebutting the argument that the US foreign policy elite, “the Blob,” have failed miserably.
-WaPo reports the continuing interagency fight over China, especially the restriction of medical imports.
– WaPo also profiles Matt Pottinger, deputy NSA and one of the leading China hawks.
– NYT legal writer says the executive order on meatpacking plants doesn’t go very far.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 29
– It looks as if the appeals court is favorable to the House’s position that the executive branch should comply with House subpoenas. NYT says same.
-Meanwhile, SecDef Esper is again shifting funds for the border wall — and away from European initiatives to counter Russia.
– The president has signed an order invoking the Defense Production Act in order to keep meat processing plants open. It does say: Accordingly, I find that meat and poultry in the food supply chain meet the criteria specified in section 101(b) of the Act (50 U.S.C. 4511(b)). Under the delegation of authority provided in this order, the Secretary of Agriculture shall take all appropriate action under that section to ensure that meat and poultry processors continue operations consistent with the guidance for their operations jointly issued by the CDC and OSHA.
But nothing about immunity from suits.
– I disagree with many of his arguments but respect retired USAF Major General Charlie Dunlap and want to share his views on the Crozier case.
– Dan Drezner says the new bipartisan consensus on China is flawed like the old consensus.
– There are several new CRS reports on aspects of the Covid-19 challenge.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 28
– “Current and former officials” tell WaPo that the President’s Daily Brief contained a dozen warnings about the coronavirus in Jan & Feb.
-Commerce has expanded the list of products that will now require an export license to China because of potential military applications.
– In a sign that the Supreme Court may duck the issue of congressional subpoenas for Trump’s tax returns, the Court has asked lawyers to submit briefs on whether the matter is a “political question.”
-Daily Beast wonders what happened to Jared Kushner’s shadow task force on coronavirus.
– Risa Brooks sees growing efforts by civilians to politicize the US military.The post has a link to a long article by Brooks in International Security where she sharply criticizes the Huntington model of civilian control. [I agree with her and with Eliot Cohen’s idea of an unequal dialogue.]
-SAIS profs Barno and Bensahel describe how the pandemic will change the US military.
– Brookings has a bunch of products on China and technology.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 27
– In Australia and New Zealand, they seem to have vanquished the virus, at least for now.
– Global military spending is surging.
– WaPo says Trump administration has multi-pronged effort to marginalize WHO.
– In effort to force continued sanctions on Iran, US has told JCPOA signatories that US is still legally part of the agreement.
– Jackson Diehl notes that US has a veto over Israeli annexation.
– CDC says Covid-19 is more complex than previously understood. And the number of basic questions is huge.
– Who deserves to be rescued in the shrinking economy? NYT notes that FDR saved artists.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | April 26 – May 1
Webinar with Former Jordanian Foreign Minister Dr. Marwan Muasher |April 27, 2020| 10:00 AM | Center for Global Policy | Register Here
Well before the Coronavirus pandemic Arab regimes struggled with political legitimacy crises driven by poor governance, economic failure, and an alienated population. Although most survived the Arab revolts of 2011 they remain highly vulnerable to internal and external shocks. How will the COVID19 crisis impact these regimes? Join us for a conversation with Dr Marwan Muasher on the pandemic’s impact on Arab regimes and the implications for their future amid rising pressures.
Dr Marwan Muasher is Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a scholar of Arab politics. Previously he served as the Kingdom of Jordan’s foreign minister, deputy prime minister, and ambassador to the United States. He has written extensively on the crisis and future of Arab politics and is the author of The Arab Center: The Promise of Moderation and The Second Arab Awakening and the Battle for Pluralism.
Faysal Itani is Deputy Director at the Center for Global Policy’s Non-State Actors and Geopolitics unit. He is also an adjunct professor of Middle East politics at George Washington University and a political risk analyst. Itani has repeatedly briefed the United States government and its allies on the conflict in Syria and its effects on their interests. He has been widely published and quoted in prominent media including The New York Times, TIME, Politico, The Washington Post, CNN, US News, Huffington Post, and The Wall Street Journal.
The Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Defense Strategy and Posture in the Middle East | April 27, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
COVID-19 has ravaged societies and governments around the world. Militaries have been hit hard too. In the United States, the military has had to balance between supporting the civilian authorities in their efforts to provide medical supplies, defending the nation from external dangers, and protecting U.S. strategic interests abroad, all while ensuring that they are taking all appropriate precautions to protect the health of service personnel and their families. Even for the most powerful and resourceful military force on the planet, this is an incredibly difficult balancing act. In the Middle East, where the United States has a large military footprint, readiness seems uncertain with resources getting diverted, training exercises getting canceled, and soldiers getting sick.
How has COVID-19 affected U.S. defense strategy and posture in the region? What are the implications for Washington’s plans in Iraq and against Iran and the Islamic State? The Middle East Institute is proud to present a panel of experts to address these questions and more.
Speakers
Mara Karlin
Director of strategic studies, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies; Nonresident senior fellow, The Brookings Institution
Michael Patrick Mulroy
Senior fellow for national security and defense policy, MEI; Co-founder, Lobo Institute
General (ret.) Joseph L. Votel
Distinguished senior fellow on national security, MEI; President and CEO, Business Executives for National Security
Bilal Saab, moderator
Senior fellow and director, Defense and Security Program, MEI
Crisis and Survival Amidst COVID-19 in Yemen | April 27, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
The first case of COVID-19 has been confirmed in Yemen. The spread of the pandemic in the war-torn country threatens to be the most catastrophic in the world. Yemen’s healthcare system has collapsed, over 3.6 million Yemenis are internally displaced, and 24 million Yemenis—85 percent of the population—are in need of humanitarian aid.
Please join us for a discussion on the implications of COVID-19 in Yemen with Lise Grande, the UN humanitarian coordinator for Yemen. The event is co-hosted by the CSIS Middle East Program, Global Health Program, and Humanitarian Agenda. Throughout the event, participants are encouraged to submit questions to the guest, Lise Grande, and hosts Jon B. Alterman and J. Stephen Morrison.
Lise Grande is responsible for leading the UN’s largest emergency operation in the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, as the UN resident coordinator and humanitarian coordinator in Yemen. She oversees and facilitates the work of all UN agencies across Yemen. Prior to this role, she ran UN assistance in Iraq for three years, served in senior positions in relief efforts in South Sudan and the Republic of the Congo, and was the head of UNDP activities in India.
Speakers
Lisa Grande, United Nations Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator in Yemen
Jon B. Alterman, Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program
J. Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center
Jacob Kurtzer, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
Women Leading with Courage in Times of Crisis | April 28, 2020 | 11:00 AM| Women’s Learning Partnership | Register Here
Join women leaders from Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and the US as they discuss how the coronavirus pandemic has impacted communities across the world. The challenges are significant: threats to health and wellbeing, increased gender-based violence, loss of income, and the erosion of human rights. In the face of these obstacles, women are responding with creativity, compassion, and courage. Speakers will highlight the innovative solutions and initiatives that women are leading to address the crisis and build a more equal future.
Speakers
Musimbi Kanyoro, moderator, WLP Board Chair and former CEO of Global Fund for Women
Mahnaz Afkahmi, Founder and President of Women’s Learning Partnership
Allison Horowski, Chief Operating Officer of Women’s Learning Partnership
Asma Khader, Executive of Director of Solidarity is Global-Jordan
Joy Ngwakwe, Executive Director of Center for Advancement of Development Rights
Andrew Romani, Program Officer of Cidadania, Estudo, Pesquisa, Informacao e Acao
Becoming Kim Jong Un- A Former CIA Officer’s Insights into North Korea’s Enigmatic Young Dictator | April 28, 2020 | 12:30 PM – 1:30 PM | Brookings Institute | Register Here
When it became clear in 2009 that Kim Jong Un was being groomed to be the leader of North Korea, Jung Pak was a new analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. Her job was to analyze this then little-known young man who would take over a nuclear-armed country and keep the highest levels of the U.S. government informed of the driving forces behind North Korea’s behavior and the subsequent implications for U.S. national security.
Now a senior fellow in the Center for East Asia Policy Studies and holder of the SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies, Jung Pak traces and explains Kim’s ascent to the world stage in her new book “Becoming Kim Jong Un,” which draws on her deep knowledge and experience in the U.S. intelligence community. In piecing together Kim’s wholly unique life, Pak argues that his personality, perceptions, and preferences matter. As the North Korean nuclear threat grows, Pak offers insights on the character and motivations of North Korea’s enigmatic dictator.
On April 28, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies will host Pak and her former colleague at the CIA, Sue Mi Terry, for a fascinating conversation about the key findings of the book and their experiences working on what the CIA has called the “hardest of the hard targets.”
Viewers can submit questions by emailing events@brookings.edu or via Twitter at #BecomingKim.
Speakers
Ryan Hass, Chair, Foreign Policy Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L Thornton China Center, Brookings Institute
Jung H. Pak, SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies, Senior Fellow Foreign Policy Center for East Asian Policy Studies, Brookings Institute
Sue Mi Terry, Senior Fellow Korea Chair Center for Strategic and International Studies
A New Chapter in Middle East Foreign Policy | April 29, 2020| 10:30 AM- 11:30 AM| Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Middle East Center| Register Here
As world powers struggle to slow the spread of COVID-19, countries across the Middle East are mulling over this pandemic’s impact on the regional power balance and foreign policy. The status-quo has shifted considerably. Oil prices and the OPEC Plus agreement have collapsed, Idlib has seen a temporary halt in fighting, the conflicts in Libya and Yemen have escalated even further, labor markets are shifting dramatically, and capital flight is a looming threat.
China has expanded its presence across the region, from Oman in the Gulf to Egypt and Algeria in North Africa. How will the current U.S.-Chinese rivalry play out in the region after the pandemic? Will Russia’s looming economic crisis have an effect on the Kremlin’s Middle East policy? Given the pandemic’s impact on Europe’s economies, can the European Union fund recovery efforts in the Middle East?
Speakers
Rosa Balfour is the director of Carnegie Europe.
Evan Feigenbaum is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment.
Dmitri Trenin is the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.
Maha Yahya, moderator, is the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
What’s Next for US-Iraq Relations? | April 29, 2020 | 10:30 AM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative for an online event to discuss the new report. Kirsten Fontenrose, Director, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council, Dr. Abbas Kadhim, Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council, and Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council will share their views on the possible trajectories US-Iraq relations could take. Louisa Loveluck, Baghdad Bureau Chief, The Washington Post, will moderate the discussion.
The US strikes that killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Qods Force Commander Qassim Soleimani, Deputy Chief of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Committee Abu Mahdi al Muhandis, and members of Kita’ib Hezbollah may have created a watershed moment in US-Iraq ties. Whether the water pushes the relationship along or drowns it, however, remains to be seen. Indeed, the United States has proposed a strategic dialogue with Iraq in June to review the US economic and security role.
The Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative is releasing a report by Nonresident Senior Fellow Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff that analyzes the current challenges in US-Iraq relations and presents policy recommendations.
Speakers
Ms. Kirsten Fontenrose
Director, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council
Dr. Abbas Kadhim
Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Ms. Louisa Loveluck, moderator
Baghdad Bureau Chief, The Washington Post
COVID-19 Under Apartheid| April 30, 2020| 10:00AM-11:00AM| Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
Arab Center Washington DC’s upcoming webinar focuses on the threat of the coronavirus pandemic in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip as well as for the Palestinian citizens of Israel. As Israel’s policies of occupation and settler colonialism continue in the midst of this global health crisis, what additional challenges are Palestinians facing under military occupation, apartheid, siege, and discriminatory policies?
Speakers
Diana Buttu
Palestinian-Canadian Lawyer and Analyst
Former legal advisor to the Palestinian negotiating team
Yara Hawari
Senior Policy Analyst, Al-Shabaka
Palestinian academic, writer, and feminist activist
Yousef Munayyer – Moderator
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
Pandemic in Pakistan and Afghanistan : The Potential Social, Political, and Economic Impact| April 30, 2020 | 10:30 AM -11:30 AM | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
With regimes and economies already under pressure and saddled with unprepared healthcare systems, Pakistan and Afghanistan are ill-equipped to deal with the challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic. Although COVID-19 was slow to manifest and initially met with public indifference and government delays, the number of victims, reported and unreported, is now spiking. Both countries can trace the outbreak primarily to the return of religious pilgrims from Iran and Saudi Arabia. Though varying in the strength of their health infrastructures, Pakistan and Afghanistan share their struggle to quickly upgrade their inadequate testing and care facilities. Both also confront the difficulties of all less developed countries in implementing restrictive measures and the implications of widespread economic closures, particularly on the least well off in their societies.
In Afghanistan, questions are being raised about COVID-19’s possible impact on the already paralyzed Afghan peace talks and the pacing of U.S. troop withdrawals. In Pakistan, could the outbreak prove to be the coup de grace to an economy already in meltdown, markedly alter the nature of federal-provincial relations, or reset the fortunes of an Imran Khan government? In Afghanistan and Pakistan both, will the health crisis provide the impetus for greater national unity or deepen existing cleavages?
Speakers
Natasha Anwar
Consultant Molecular Pathologist, Aga Khan University Hospital Regional Lab Lahore
Hasan Askari Rizvi
Professor emeritus of political science, Punjab University
Hamid Elmyar
Public health specialist, MD, former community health advisor in Afghanistan
Vanda Felbab-Brown
Senior fellow, Brookings Institution
Marvin Weinbaum, moderator
Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI
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