He can’t talk himself out of it

Anthony Fauci is trolling Donald Trump. The President is ordering up plans to reopen businesses next month. Fauci is saying the virus will make that decision. Who is right?

Fauci is. Any decision to send people back to work before the virus is under good control will generate a giant second wave of infection and extend in both time and space the economic damage due to Covid-19. While there are some indications that infection may be beginning to peak in New York City and other hot spots, much of the country has yet to see its first wave of infection. All the states that have hesitated and resisted social distancing measures are bound to suffer next.

The one thing that could accelerate the reopening of the economy is testing. If I can be sure everyone I am working close to has been tested and found negative for the virus, then of course I’d be happy to go back to work, to movie theaters, and to school. But the Federal government has failed from the first to make enough testing available. Are you really going to go to a restaurant where someone who has not been tested is coughing at the next table? Are you going to sit in a movie theater or classroom with people who have not been tested?

A premature return to work will vastly increase the economic damage, not decrease it. Trump should be worried about that, since his prospects in the November 3 election depend heavily on the state of the economy. But this is a president who thinks he can talk himself out of trouble. The opposite is more the case. His daily press briefings are hurting his popularity, even while attracting lots of viewers. They are reminders that he and his Administration are supposed to be in charge and are therefore responsible for the disastrous impact of the epidemic in the United States.

Trump’s mendacity, ignorance and egotism are the culprits. He tried for weeks to play down the threat, then shifted to placing blame on Obama, the Chinese, WHO, and Democratic governors. His minions have followed wherever he goes, echoing his latest efforts to shirk responsibility. Fox News tries to portray him as having been right all along, despite the obvious change in his line from it’s-not-worse-than-the-flu to no-one-has-ever-seen-anything-like-this. Read David Frum’s account if have doubts.

At this point, maybe we can hope to get to the far side of this epidemic by July, but it will leave a wake of devastation that will last much longer. Lots of businesses in the US will go under. Growth may perk up before the end of 2020, but it will take years to recover fully and decades to pay off the vast increase in the public debt. The United States will lose ground economically and politically relative to other countries that have dealt more effectively with the virus, including China and Germany. Who would want to follow the leadership of a country that reacted so ineffectively to the virus as the US?

Outside the US, the big impact will be on poorer countries, where testing and treatment will be in even shorter supply. Many countries in Africa and the Middle East were already facing giant youth bulges before the virus hit. If their older and poorer populations are culled, which is what we should expect, they will be left with slowed growth and an even greater youth bulge. The consequences for stability in already unstable areas will be disastrous. Trump, who has ignored this international dimension of Covid-19’s impact, will find again that he can’t talk himself out of it.