CCP’s challenges in COVID-19

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is using the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity to expand its influence around the world. On April 17, Hudson Institute hosted a panel discussion on “Meeting the Challenge of the Chinese Communist Party During and After COVID-19.” The discussion featured four speakers:

Eric Brown: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Patrick Cronin: Asia-Pacific Security Chair and Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

John Lee: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Lewis Libby: Senior Vice President, Hudson Institute, moderated

Current Context

Lee said that the CCP is promoting its decisive and effective response in contrast to America’s chaotic efforts. The masks, ventilators, and doctors that China has sent around the world are meant to show that China is saving the world, while democracy in the US is floundering. He believes that China will return to a powerful position because of its strong national capabilities.

One of the challenges that China is encountering, however, is the lockdown in neighboring states, which prevents them from absorbing China’s excess supplies. In the long term, China needs continued access to external markets, capital, and innovation. Lee points out that Europe is considering toughening its industrial polices against China.

Brown indicated that the US thought cooperation with China throughout the 1990s would let the CCP relinquish some control. The CCP, however, was not prepared for further liberalization. After the 2008 financial crisis, the party re-asserted more control over economic, political, and ideological discussions. President Xi attempted to turn China against the US, causing deterioration in US-China relations and leading to limited market access.

Adding that the pandemic could trigger a change in CCP tactics because the criticism of the one-party system has deepened, Brown noted that people have been thinking about a fundamental change in the CCP regime. The regime, hence, could redouble its police state buildup and become more aggressive.

Is China winning?

Cronin believes that the pandemic crisis should neither lead us to count America out, nor assume China’s peaceful rise, for three reasons:

• US retrenchment from the Pacific is not irreparable. It will, however, accelerate the disentanglement of US supply chains and high-tech innovation sources. Meanwhile, China is not filling the gap due to its internal troubles and its poor track record of trust and transparency.
• The CCP is adaptable and agile, characteristics the US has underestimated. The Covid-19 crisis, nevertheless, could be a Chernobyl moment for Xi’s leadership.
• The US and its allies are in a competition with China. Their strategies can include both preventing the rise of the hegemon and finding cooperation based on reciprocity in contrast to China’s narratives.

What can the US do?

Lee and Brown both agreed that the US can either restrict China’s access to the international market or block its transactions in US dollars. The US also needs to coordinate with Europe. Additionally, American universities should restrict Chinese students’ participation in joint projects with strategic implications. Brown added that the pandemic forces US political leaders to face the choice between national security and international financial markets. The best arrangement should cover both national security concerns and economic concerns.

Here’s the video for this panel discussion: