Slower can be better

Drilon S. Gashi* writes:

It does not look like my call for a pause and reset will be heeded in Kosovo. President Thaci, US Special Envoy Richard Grenell, and the Democratic League of Kosova (LDK) look intent on moving ahead to replace Albin Kurti as prime minister. That would mean the formation of a new coalition agreement, removal of reciprocity on Serbian goods, and a sprint towards a hazily understood, Kosovo-Serbia “normalization” agreement.

The deal likely encompasses a land swap, extraterritoriality for Serb Orthodox Churches, and possibly a supra-institutional status for an Association of Serb Municipalities. It is unlikely to include UN membership or even Serbian recognition. Any combination of these components would mean a bad deal for Kosovo but a good one for Serbia. A new, even-handed deal based on economic cooperation and joint EU accession could be mutually beneficial.

False paradigm

For years, Kosovo has pursued a false paradigm: additional concessions to Serbia may further Kosovo’s international subjectivity and possibly even achieve UN membership. The truth is Kosovo’s international fate relies more on it reforming its own institutions and democracy, prospering economically, strengthening its military, garnering new recognitions of its independence, and convincing Russia and China to accept its existence. Some of these it can achieve on its own. For others, it will surely continue to need EU and US support.

It will also require greater competence and activism in Kosovo’s institutions and among its political parties, whose negotiating positions on normalization with Belgrade are consistently weakening. Yet this is the same Kosovo that achieved the 2010 ICJ verdict concluding “the declaration of independence of the 17th of February 2008 did not violate general international law.” So, Kosovo can do better. 

Serbia continues to pursue a long game in which it strips away Kosovo’s gains since independence in 2008. A land swap deal would be a coup for Serbia, and a means to continue undermining Kosovo’s independence. Belgrade’s goal is to further isolate Kosovo and assure it remains far from universal recognition. Serbia has plastered posters all across Belgrade thanking President Xi Jinping for his COVID-19 support. It should be no surprise to learn Serbia seeks China’s support to make Kosovo further resemble Taiwan.

The “normalization” process should lead to mutual recognition between Kosovo and Serbia, border demarcation along their internationally recognized borders, and an exchange of Ambassadors. It is not moving in that direction. In fact, this normalization process “abnormalizes” Kosovo.

New government? The Constitution’s call

The Kosovo Constitutional Court has in the past struck down a Kosovo-Serbia agreement that contravened Kosovo’s Constitution. The Constitutional Court should step in again, but this time to settle the matter of how Kosovo should determine its new government.

Kosovo is currently in a constitutional crisis. President Thaci believes the LDK, the second place party in the October 2019 elections, should try its turn at forming a government. Vetevendosje (VV), the election winner, believes the recent vote of no confidence should lead to the President disbanding the parliament and calling post-COVID elections. VV believes it should not have to respond to requests to form a government based on the October 2019 election.

LDK now plans to circumvent VV, as well as its own Parliament Speaker—and previous candidate for Prime Minister—Vjosa Osmani, in forming a government. There’s a struggle inside the LDK between its old guard, and a new guard led by Osmani. The new guard brought in a significant portion of the LDK vote last election. But the old guard has remained in charge. It’s actions may also be circumventing the Constitution.

Acting Prime Minister Kurti and Speaker Osmani are popular. Their success in the recent election brought hope to Kosovo. They are well-educated, relatively young politicians, and committed to good governance and economic development. Kosovo’s voters have too often been let down by their establishment parties. And now the country faces a potential government of the losers of the last election.

Moves to replace a popular government managing the pandemic may lead to alarm and protest. While extraordinary in times of a pandemic, thousands gathered in Israel recently to protest government corruption. Nobody wants that for Kosovo. There’s still time for a constitutional solution, or a compromise unity government, instead of a contentious government.  

Hope for a new deal

A rushed Kosovo-Serbia deal led by an unpopular—and potentially unconstitutional—Kosovo government, during a pandemic, spells trouble. What both sides need, and EU and US mediators should support, is a new deal for a sustainable peace. One that does not detract from Kosovo’s independence and territorial integrity, but rather is based on a formula for Kosovo and Serbia to accept one another as independent countries.

This deal could focus on economic and trade cooperation, significant EU support, and joint EU accession. A new trade deal could help settle disagreements over tariff and non-tariff barriers. The Serbian and Kosovo Chambers of Commerce have a working relationship. As recently as two years ago Serbian business associations took part in a Prishtina trade fair, emphasizing they’re creating jobs, products, and making a profit with their Kosovar counterparts. Together, they can work to solve their mutual long lists of trade grievances. The US administration, Richard Grenell and Matt Palmer, have been right to focus here and can work to show real progress.

For its part, the EU, and Special Envoy Lajcak, can prove to the sides, and others, that EU accession is still a powerful tool for progress. Whether it be through achieving multi-country infrastructure projects, joint legislative and rule of law reform, joint economic sector reform, or greater linkages for both sides to EU markets. The EU can also do a great deal by conditioning EU accession for both countries as part of the same process, with them simultaneously acceding. That way, it does not import problematic relations, but improves those relations, and encourages the accession of the countries as new EU partners.

The EU and US have all the carrots and sticks needed to put this process back on track. Fast-forwarding now to an unpopular deal will do much more harm than good, lead to failure for Kosovo, and ultimately for all. A new deal where both sides are winners, is not only better, it can last.

*Drilon S. Gashi is an international development specialist based in Washington, D.C. He has spent three years working in Kosovo’s public and non-for-profit sectors, and holds a Master of International Affairs from Columbia University.