Day: April 26, 2020
Peace Picks | April 26 – May 1
Webinar with Former Jordanian Foreign Minister Dr. Marwan Muasher |April 27, 2020| 10:00 AM | Center for Global Policy | Register Here
Well before the Coronavirus pandemic Arab regimes struggled with political legitimacy crises driven by poor governance, economic failure, and an alienated population. Although most survived the Arab revolts of 2011 they remain highly vulnerable to internal and external shocks. How will the COVID19 crisis impact these regimes? Join us for a conversation with Dr Marwan Muasher on the pandemic’s impact on Arab regimes and the implications for their future amid rising pressures.
Dr Marwan Muasher is Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a scholar of Arab politics. Previously he served as the Kingdom of Jordan’s foreign minister, deputy prime minister, and ambassador to the United States. He has written extensively on the crisis and future of Arab politics and is the author of The Arab Center: The Promise of Moderation and The Second Arab Awakening and the Battle for Pluralism.
Faysal Itani is Deputy Director at the Center for Global Policy’s Non-State Actors and Geopolitics unit. He is also an adjunct professor of Middle East politics at George Washington University and a political risk analyst. Itani has repeatedly briefed the United States government and its allies on the conflict in Syria and its effects on their interests. He has been widely published and quoted in prominent media including The New York Times, TIME, Politico, The Washington Post, CNN, US News, Huffington Post, and The Wall Street Journal.
The Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Defense Strategy and Posture in the Middle East | April 27, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
COVID-19 has ravaged societies and governments around the world. Militaries have been hit hard too. In the United States, the military has had to balance between supporting the civilian authorities in their efforts to provide medical supplies, defending the nation from external dangers, and protecting U.S. strategic interests abroad, all while ensuring that they are taking all appropriate precautions to protect the health of service personnel and their families. Even for the most powerful and resourceful military force on the planet, this is an incredibly difficult balancing act. In the Middle East, where the United States has a large military footprint, readiness seems uncertain with resources getting diverted, training exercises getting canceled, and soldiers getting sick.
How has COVID-19 affected U.S. defense strategy and posture in the region? What are the implications for Washington’s plans in Iraq and against Iran and the Islamic State? The Middle East Institute is proud to present a panel of experts to address these questions and more.
Speakers
Mara Karlin
Director of strategic studies, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies; Nonresident senior fellow, The Brookings Institution
Michael Patrick Mulroy
Senior fellow for national security and defense policy, MEI; Co-founder, Lobo Institute
General (ret.) Joseph L. Votel
Distinguished senior fellow on national security, MEI; President and CEO, Business Executives for National Security
Bilal Saab, moderator
Senior fellow and director, Defense and Security Program, MEI
Crisis and Survival Amidst COVID-19 in Yemen | April 27, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
The first case of COVID-19 has been confirmed in Yemen. The spread of the pandemic in the war-torn country threatens to be the most catastrophic in the world. Yemen’s healthcare system has collapsed, over 3.6 million Yemenis are internally displaced, and 24 million Yemenis—85 percent of the population—are in need of humanitarian aid.
Please join us for a discussion on the implications of COVID-19 in Yemen with Lise Grande, the UN humanitarian coordinator for Yemen. The event is co-hosted by the CSIS Middle East Program, Global Health Program, and Humanitarian Agenda. Throughout the event, participants are encouraged to submit questions to the guest, Lise Grande, and hosts Jon B. Alterman and J. Stephen Morrison.
Lise Grande is responsible for leading the UN’s largest emergency operation in the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, as the UN resident coordinator and humanitarian coordinator in Yemen. She oversees and facilitates the work of all UN agencies across Yemen. Prior to this role, she ran UN assistance in Iraq for three years, served in senior positions in relief efforts in South Sudan and the Republic of the Congo, and was the head of UNDP activities in India.
Speakers
Lisa Grande, United Nations Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator in Yemen
Jon B. Alterman, Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program
J. Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center
Jacob Kurtzer, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
Women Leading with Courage in Times of Crisis | April 28, 2020 | 11:00 AM| Women’s Learning Partnership | Register Here
Join women leaders from Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and the US as they discuss how the coronavirus pandemic has impacted communities across the world. The challenges are significant: threats to health and wellbeing, increased gender-based violence, loss of income, and the erosion of human rights. In the face of these obstacles, women are responding with creativity, compassion, and courage. Speakers will highlight the innovative solutions and initiatives that women are leading to address the crisis and build a more equal future.
Speakers
Musimbi Kanyoro, moderator, WLP Board Chair and former CEO of Global Fund for Women
Mahnaz Afkahmi, Founder and President of Women’s Learning Partnership
Allison Horowski, Chief Operating Officer of Women’s Learning Partnership
Asma Khader, Executive of Director of Solidarity is Global-Jordan
Joy Ngwakwe, Executive Director of Center for Advancement of Development Rights
Andrew Romani, Program Officer of Cidadania, Estudo, Pesquisa, Informacao e Acao
Becoming Kim Jong Un- A Former CIA Officer’s Insights into North Korea’s Enigmatic Young Dictator | April 28, 2020 | 12:30 PM – 1:30 PM | Brookings Institute | Register Here
When it became clear in 2009 that Kim Jong Un was being groomed to be the leader of North Korea, Jung Pak was a new analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. Her job was to analyze this then little-known young man who would take over a nuclear-armed country and keep the highest levels of the U.S. government informed of the driving forces behind North Korea’s behavior and the subsequent implications for U.S. national security.
Now a senior fellow in the Center for East Asia Policy Studies and holder of the SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies, Jung Pak traces and explains Kim’s ascent to the world stage in her new book “Becoming Kim Jong Un,” which draws on her deep knowledge and experience in the U.S. intelligence community. In piecing together Kim’s wholly unique life, Pak argues that his personality, perceptions, and preferences matter. As the North Korean nuclear threat grows, Pak offers insights on the character and motivations of North Korea’s enigmatic dictator.
On April 28, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies will host Pak and her former colleague at the CIA, Sue Mi Terry, for a fascinating conversation about the key findings of the book and their experiences working on what the CIA has called the “hardest of the hard targets.”
Viewers can submit questions by emailing events@brookings.edu or via Twitter at #BecomingKim.
Speakers
Ryan Hass, Chair, Foreign Policy Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L Thornton China Center, Brookings Institute
Jung H. Pak, SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies, Senior Fellow Foreign Policy Center for East Asian Policy Studies, Brookings Institute
Sue Mi Terry, Senior Fellow Korea Chair Center for Strategic and International Studies
A New Chapter in Middle East Foreign Policy | April 29, 2020| 10:30 AM- 11:30 AM| Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Middle East Center| Register Here
As world powers struggle to slow the spread of COVID-19, countries across the Middle East are mulling over this pandemic’s impact on the regional power balance and foreign policy. The status-quo has shifted considerably. Oil prices and the OPEC Plus agreement have collapsed, Idlib has seen a temporary halt in fighting, the conflicts in Libya and Yemen have escalated even further, labor markets are shifting dramatically, and capital flight is a looming threat.
China has expanded its presence across the region, from Oman in the Gulf to Egypt and Algeria in North Africa. How will the current U.S.-Chinese rivalry play out in the region after the pandemic? Will Russia’s looming economic crisis have an effect on the Kremlin’s Middle East policy? Given the pandemic’s impact on Europe’s economies, can the European Union fund recovery efforts in the Middle East?
Speakers
Rosa Balfour is the director of Carnegie Europe.
Evan Feigenbaum is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment.
Dmitri Trenin is the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.
Maha Yahya, moderator, is the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
What’s Next for US-Iraq Relations? | April 29, 2020 | 10:30 AM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative for an online event to discuss the new report. Kirsten Fontenrose, Director, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council, Dr. Abbas Kadhim, Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council, and Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council will share their views on the possible trajectories US-Iraq relations could take. Louisa Loveluck, Baghdad Bureau Chief, The Washington Post, will moderate the discussion.
The US strikes that killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Qods Force Commander Qassim Soleimani, Deputy Chief of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Committee Abu Mahdi al Muhandis, and members of Kita’ib Hezbollah may have created a watershed moment in US-Iraq ties. Whether the water pushes the relationship along or drowns it, however, remains to be seen. Indeed, the United States has proposed a strategic dialogue with Iraq in June to review the US economic and security role.
The Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative is releasing a report by Nonresident Senior Fellow Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff that analyzes the current challenges in US-Iraq relations and presents policy recommendations.
Speakers
Ms. Kirsten Fontenrose
Director, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council
Dr. Abbas Kadhim
Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Ms. Louisa Loveluck, moderator
Baghdad Bureau Chief, The Washington Post
COVID-19 Under Apartheid| April 30, 2020| 10:00AM-11:00AM| Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
Arab Center Washington DC’s upcoming webinar focuses on the threat of the coronavirus pandemic in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip as well as for the Palestinian citizens of Israel. As Israel’s policies of occupation and settler colonialism continue in the midst of this global health crisis, what additional challenges are Palestinians facing under military occupation, apartheid, siege, and discriminatory policies?
Speakers
Diana Buttu
Palestinian-Canadian Lawyer and Analyst
Former legal advisor to the Palestinian negotiating team
Yara Hawari
Senior Policy Analyst, Al-Shabaka
Palestinian academic, writer, and feminist activist
Yousef Munayyer – Moderator
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
Pandemic in Pakistan and Afghanistan : The Potential Social, Political, and Economic Impact| April 30, 2020 | 10:30 AM -11:30 AM | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
With regimes and economies already under pressure and saddled with unprepared healthcare systems, Pakistan and Afghanistan are ill-equipped to deal with the challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic. Although COVID-19 was slow to manifest and initially met with public indifference and government delays, the number of victims, reported and unreported, is now spiking. Both countries can trace the outbreak primarily to the return of religious pilgrims from Iran and Saudi Arabia. Though varying in the strength of their health infrastructures, Pakistan and Afghanistan share their struggle to quickly upgrade their inadequate testing and care facilities. Both also confront the difficulties of all less developed countries in implementing restrictive measures and the implications of widespread economic closures, particularly on the least well off in their societies.
In Afghanistan, questions are being raised about COVID-19’s possible impact on the already paralyzed Afghan peace talks and the pacing of U.S. troop withdrawals. In Pakistan, could the outbreak prove to be the coup de grace to an economy already in meltdown, markedly alter the nature of federal-provincial relations, or reset the fortunes of an Imran Khan government? In Afghanistan and Pakistan both, will the health crisis provide the impetus for greater national unity or deepen existing cleavages?
Speakers
Natasha Anwar
Consultant Molecular Pathologist, Aga Khan University Hospital Regional Lab Lahore
Hasan Askari Rizvi
Professor emeritus of political science, Punjab University
Hamid Elmyar
Public health specialist, MD, former community health advisor in Afghanistan
Vanda Felbab-Brown
Senior fellow, Brookings Institution
Marvin Weinbaum, moderator
Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI
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Stevenson’s army, April 26
– George Will worries that courts are limiting Congress’ power of the purse. This week an appeals court hears a case, and the issue may turn on “standing” to sue.
-Ed Kilgore says there’s a constitutional way for Republicans to steal the presidential election this year.
– Are troop deployment numbers a Constitutional question?
– Lawfare history lesson: when FDR seized Montgomery Ward.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The politics of faith
Ambassador Miodrag Vlahovic* writes:
The new Law on Religious and Freedoms of Opinion was adopted by the Montenegrin Parliament in December 2019, after almost five years of continuous talks and consultation between Government of Montenegro (GoM) and all religious communities in our country. Unfortunately, the Serbian Orthodox Church (Metropolitan of Cetinje) repeatedly refused to take part in this process, claiming that Montenegro and its legal institutions have no right to legislate on religion.
The Venice Commission of the Council of Europe, which is responsible for reviewing the constitutional legislation of member states, thoroughly analyzed the draft Law, and confirmed that the provisions fully correspond and comply with the highest European criteria and standards, in addition to suggesting some amendments. Two of the Commission’s members dissented – the representative of Bosnia, from Banja Luka, abstained, and the representative of Serbia voted against.
The Government and Parliament of Montenegro adopted all the non-binding expert suggestions, with one exception – obligatory religious education in schools, inappropriate for our country’s multicultural and multi religious traditions. The goal was to replace the previous out-dated and inappropriate Tito-era regulations, in order to provide for equal legal status for all religious communities and for their members and followers (Orthodox Christian, Muslim, Catholic, Jewish and others), as well as for non-religious people.
In response, the Serbian Orthodox Church, both in Montenegro as well as its leadership and clergy in Serbia, has started a destructive political campaign, fully backed by the most radical national-chauvinist political parties, media and “intellectual” circles in both countries. That campaign has all the characteristics and narrative that dominated political and public life in ex-Yugoslavia in the early 1990’s and which promoted, provoked and, afterwards, tried to justify the tragic Yugoslav wars and to minimize or deny the crimes and atrocities committed.
The core of the dispute with Serbian church is related to three articles of the Law, which stipulate that all the property which was for centuries Montenegrin state property – and especially prior to 1918, when Montenegro was brutally, illegally and unconstitutionally annexed by Serbia – shall be re-registered as state property of Montenegro. Full legal procedure and protection are provided for, including the possibility to appeal to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg.
No other religious community in Montenegro had any substantial objection or opposition to the Law; they fully support equal and balanced treatment for all.
The Law also requires mandatory registration of religious communities with the Montenegrin authorities, a formality that the Serbian church repeatedly and vehemently rejects, claiming that the Serbian church in Montenegro cannot be subjected to Montenegrin law. The Serbian church is duly registered in all other countries, including Serbia itself, their numerous European dioceses, and those in the US, as well as in Argentina and in Australia, without any objection. In addition, the Serbian church does not want to pay taxes for its diversified and growing business activities in Montenegro.
For almost two months prior to coronavirus shutdown, the Serbian church organized so-called religious processions, with participation of clergy from other countries.
Montenegro remains fully committed, as a member of NATO and as an aspirant for EU membership, to continuing its democratic and overall development, based on its historic traditions and values. Our positive and successful policies in recent history, including the preparation and organization of the peaceful and democratic referendum on independence in May 2006, were based on our functioning multi-ethnic and multi-religious governments. This was true throughout the Yugoslav wars.
These are the values and principles we shall defend, maintain and further promote. We are absolutely committed and ready to resolve any issue related to the implementation of the new Law on Religious Freedoms though negotiations and with mutual respect and correctness, fully protecting and securing the secular nature of Montenegrin state structures and on the basis of our multicultural, multiethnic and multi-religious society.
Just before the global breakout of the virus, the GoM and the Metropolitan of Cetinje agreed to start negotiations concerning the new law. The position of the Church is that three articles related to property issues should be abolished. The position of GoM is that only the implementation of the Law should be discussed. That deadlock was temporarily put aside. Post-virus Montenegro will have to return to these issues.
*Montenegrin ambassador to the Holy See and a former foreign minister of Montenegro, but the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the official Montenegrin positions.
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National disgrace
The American response to the Covid-19 is a well-documented national disgrace. Warned early, President Trump and his Administration minimized the risks, delayed acting, and failed to mount the effort to produce protective equipment and testing required to get the country safely back to work. Encouraged by the President, states that have never taken sufficient social distancing measures are now “opening up,” which will guarantee new infections and delay further a return to normality. In addition, the President has been encouraging people to try unproven and dangerous remedies, including internal use of intense light and disinfectant.
Incompetence at this level is hard to come by, but the Administration is not so dumb when it comes to something it cares about. Republicans have quietly ensured that the legislation intended to help the country meet the Covid-19 economic challenge includes massive tax breaks for the very rich, even as they worry loudly about how $600 per week in unemployment payments might discourage the poor from working. It will take months to discover all the gimmicks they’ve written into the tax code.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world is coping fairly well. Even Italy and Spain, which had big early outbreaks, are seeing their curves flatten and turn downwards. Some countries like Greece, Turkey, and Sweden are seeing a resurgence, but most seem to have things under reasonably good control. In much of the Middle East and Africa, we’ll likely never know the number of cases and deaths because of lack of ability to trace and count them. What we’ll see is an uptick in mortality due to unknown causes.
Even in the US, there is reason to believe that we are undercounting. The total will likely fall in the 70-100,000 range, a death count that should make Americans ashamed. The information, the science, and the know-how were all available in January, February, and March, when the President dithered and tried to minimize the epidemic. The result is a shocking rise in the death toll to over 2000 per day:
The economic toll is likely to be just as devastating. Conference Board scenarios include losses of between 3.6 and 7.4% for the year:
That would make the downturn sharper, though perhaps shorter, than 2008. Even so, the economy would not be back to its third quarter 2019 level before the end of this year.
The political implications are not good for Donald Trump. He has been weakening in key battleground states. The states that followed the President’s push for reopening will suffer second waves of infection, possibly just before the US election. We can hope a recovery will be in progress by November, but the economic losses will still be all too evident. The losses of life will also still be hurting: more than half a million people will by the time of the election likely have a family member who has died of Covid-19.
Donald Trump has made himself the personification of government reaction to the epidemic, by appearing almost every day on TV to misinform the public. Apparently convinced that his mendacious performance was a mistake, he is now abandoning the habit. But he should still be held accountable for the damage and disgrace he has brought on the country. It’s not WHO, it’s not the Chinese, it’s not the Democrats: Donald Trump and no one else is to blame for the failure of the US to confront Covid-19 with the many tools at its disposal. This disaster is his, and his alone.
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