Month: April 2020
Slower can be better
Drilon S. Gashi* writes:
It does not look like my call for a pause and reset will be heeded in Kosovo. President Thaci, US Special Envoy Richard Grenell, and the Democratic League of Kosova (LDK) look intent on moving ahead to replace Albin Kurti as prime minister. That would mean the formation of a new coalition agreement, removal of reciprocity on Serbian goods, and a sprint towards a hazily understood, Kosovo-Serbia “normalization” agreement.
The deal likely encompasses a land swap, extraterritoriality for Serb Orthodox Churches, and possibly a supra-institutional status for an Association of Serb Municipalities. It is unlikely to include UN membership or even Serbian recognition. Any combination of these components would mean a bad deal for Kosovo but a good one for Serbia. A new, even-handed deal based on economic cooperation and joint EU accession could be mutually beneficial.
False paradigm
For years, Kosovo has pursued a false paradigm: additional concessions to Serbia may further Kosovo’s international subjectivity and possibly even achieve UN membership. The truth is Kosovo’s international fate relies more on it reforming its own institutions and democracy, prospering economically, strengthening its military, garnering new recognitions of its independence, and convincing Russia and China to accept its existence. Some of these it can achieve on its own. For others, it will surely continue to need EU and US support.
It will also require greater competence and activism in Kosovo’s institutions and among its political parties, whose negotiating positions on normalization with Belgrade are consistently weakening. Yet this is the same Kosovo that achieved the 2010 ICJ verdict concluding “the declaration of independence of the 17th of February 2008 did not violate general international law.” So, Kosovo can do better.
Serbia continues to pursue a long game in which it strips away Kosovo’s gains since independence in 2008. A land swap deal would be a coup for Serbia, and a means to continue undermining Kosovo’s independence. Belgrade’s goal is to further isolate Kosovo and assure it remains far from universal recognition. Serbia has plastered posters all across Belgrade thanking President Xi Jinping for his COVID-19 support. It should be no surprise to learn Serbia seeks China’s support to make Kosovo further resemble Taiwan.
The “normalization” process should lead to mutual recognition between Kosovo and Serbia, border demarcation along their internationally recognized borders, and an exchange of Ambassadors. It is not moving in that direction. In fact, this normalization process “abnormalizes” Kosovo.
New government? The Constitution’s call
The Kosovo Constitutional Court has in the past struck down a Kosovo-Serbia agreement that contravened Kosovo’s Constitution. The Constitutional Court should step in again, but this time to settle the matter of how Kosovo should determine its new government.
Kosovo is currently in a constitutional crisis. President Thaci believes the LDK, the second place party in the October 2019 elections, should try its turn at forming a government. Vetevendosje (VV), the election winner, believes the recent vote of no confidence should lead to the President disbanding the parliament and calling post-COVID elections. VV believes it should not have to respond to requests to form a government based on the October 2019 election.
LDK now plans to circumvent VV, as well as its own Parliament Speaker—and previous candidate for Prime Minister—Vjosa Osmani, in forming a government. There’s a struggle inside the LDK between its old guard, and a new guard led by Osmani. The new guard brought in a significant portion of the LDK vote last election. But the old guard has remained in charge. It’s actions may also be circumventing the Constitution.
Acting Prime Minister Kurti and Speaker Osmani are popular. Their success in the recent election brought hope to Kosovo. They are well-educated, relatively young politicians, and committed to good governance and economic development. Kosovo’s voters have too often been let down by their establishment parties. And now the country faces a potential government of the losers of the last election.
Moves to replace a popular government managing the pandemic may lead to alarm and protest. While extraordinary in times of a pandemic, thousands gathered in Israel recently to protest government corruption. Nobody wants that for Kosovo. There’s still time for a constitutional solution, or a compromise unity government, instead of a contentious government.
Hope for a new deal
A rushed Kosovo-Serbia deal led by an unpopular—and potentially unconstitutional—Kosovo government, during a pandemic, spells trouble. What both sides need, and EU and US mediators should support, is a new deal for a sustainable peace. One that does not detract from Kosovo’s independence and territorial integrity, but rather is based on a formula for Kosovo and Serbia to accept one another as independent countries.
This deal could focus on economic and trade cooperation, significant EU support, and joint EU accession. A new trade deal could help settle disagreements over tariff and non-tariff barriers. The Serbian and Kosovo Chambers of Commerce have a working relationship. As recently as two years ago Serbian business associations took part in a Prishtina trade fair, emphasizing they’re creating jobs, products, and making a profit with their Kosovar counterparts. Together, they can work to solve their mutual long lists of trade grievances. The US administration, Richard Grenell and Matt Palmer, have been right to focus here and can work to show real progress.
For its part, the EU, and Special Envoy Lajcak, can prove to the sides, and others, that EU accession is still a powerful tool for progress. Whether it be through achieving multi-country infrastructure projects, joint legislative and rule of law reform, joint economic sector reform, or greater linkages for both sides to EU markets. The EU can also do a great deal by conditioning EU accession for both countries as part of the same process, with them simultaneously acceding. That way, it does not import problematic relations, but improves those relations, and encourages the accession of the countries as new EU partners.
The EU and US have all the carrots and sticks needed to put this process back on track. Fast-forwarding now to an unpopular deal will do much more harm than good, lead to failure for Kosovo, and ultimately for all. A new deal where both sides are winners, is not only better, it can last.
*Drilon S. Gashi is an international development specialist based in Washington, D.C. He has spent three years working in Kosovo’s public and non-for-profit sectors, and holds a Master of International Affairs from Columbia University.
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Stevenson’s army, April 24
– In preparation for next week’s discussion about the Supreme Court, be sure to read Linda Greenhouse on the dispute over keeping precedents and this piece guessing how Justice Kagan is working to gain allies.
– Bureaucratic politics: USAF and Space Force fight to control NRO.
– Great powers work to control Arctic.
– Political appointees pushed HHS on hydroxychloroquine
– NYT tells how the president spends his days and nights.
– FP says US-Saudi alliance is collapsing.
– Constitutional point: president’s can’t veto bills until the signed copies come over from Congress. Hence this situation [from Politico]:
STILL WAITING FOR A VETO — What ever happened to the Iran war powers resolution? The Senate and House passed the measure in February and March, respectively, aimed at limiting Trump’s ability to go to war with Iran without Congressional approval. But, quite unusually, the bill has yet to reach the president’s desk. The House finally enrolled the bill earlier this month and sent it to the Senate. It’s largely a procedural action, but the Senate has yet to enroll the bill so that it can be sent across Pennsylvania Avenue. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) recently told reporters after presiding over a pro forma session that he wasn’t even asked to sign it. Trump is expected to veto the bill anyway; so what gives?
Well, now we know: Aides in both parties tell us that Senate leaders are trying to iron out an agreement on when a vote to override the president’s expected veto would take place. With floor time so valuable these days amid the coronavirus pandemic, both sides want to ensure they are not causing problems for themselves down the line. So, for now, the bill is being held back. Both sides rejected the notion that any behind-the-scenes drama is preventing the resolution from advancing to the White House. Democrats and Republicans alike appear to be OK with this arrangement because they want Covid-19 to remain Congress’ top priority.
Why not the best? No, instead, the president wants the number 3 official at Defense to be the person with this flawed past: [from D Brief]
Anthony Tata will probably be named the Pentagon’s next policy chief. Bloomberg and Politico are reporting this morning that Tata, a retired Army brigadier general turned Fox talker, will be nominated as defense undersecretary for policy. “If confirmed by the Senate, Tata would replace John Rood, who was forced out in February as part of President Donald Trump’s loyalty purge after two years in the job,” Politico writes.
A West Point grad who became a Ranger and deputy commander of the 10th Mountain Division, Tata has a master’s degree in international relations and served as a fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.
Tata retired in 2008, a year after Army investigators concluded that he had had at least two adulterous affairs and as they were looking into a false document he provided to courts. In retirement, Tata became a superintendent of schools in South Carolina’s Wake County and was fired by the county school board after 20 months on the job.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 23
– Washington seems to have a “kick ’em when they’re down” culture. SO today we have reports when multiple sources blame the HSS secretary for his failings.
And they note that his chief of staff is unqualified, except perhaps for dog breeding.
And a vaccine doctor says he was fired for political reasons.
Meanwhile, Israel seems to be warning Hezbollah forces of impending attacks in order to avoid casualties.
Maduro and Guaido are having secret talks.
AEI has a report on radical Islamic groups in the Sahel.
GMF has report on Chinese political interference programs.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 22
– Just in time for our discussion of the news media, here’s a piece on the Fox effect.
– US opinion sours on China.
– New tensions in the South China Sea.
– Unanimous Senate Intelligence Committee report agrees Russia helped Trump in 2016.
– Here’s what happens when outsiders try to run government.
– Dan Drezner and others say US should forget about Grand Strategy.
– The House will likely vote on a proxy voting plan on Thurs; meanwhile the British parliament is going virtual.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 21
– NSA O’Brien says US is monitoring reports that Kim jong-un may be gravely ill.
– His death could lead to unrest and fighting.
– Boris Johnson, while still healthy, missed 5 key meetings on the coronavirus.
– In WSJ, NSA O’Brien defends Trump’s actions on the pandemic. What troubles me, however, is that he goes beyond defense and explicitly criticizes the likely Democratic presidential candidate in the process.
– Defense One has a tick-tock on Modly’s dash to Guam.
– Defense News says Esper is studying cutting two aircraft carriers from the Navy.
– And just in time for next week’s discussion of the judicial branch, here’s an article on a big decision yesterday. While the explicit issue before the Supreme Court was whether federal criminal juries had to be unanimous for convictions, the article notes that on a slew of important side questions, the court splintered hopelessly: It split 3–1–1–1–3 on thorny disputes over precedent, constitutional interpretation, the Bill of Rights’ protections for noncitizens, and the contemporary relevance of a law’s racist roots. The justices used Ramos to shadowbox over long-running debates, including abortion.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks| April 18- April 25
Public Health Surveillance, Al bias, and Risks to Privacy in the Fight against COVID-19 | April 21, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Brookins Institution | Register Here
To help fight COVID-19, U.S. tech companies have recently announced efforts to leverage public health surveillance, including tracking the spread of the coronavirus using Bluetooth-enabled devices. China, South Korea, and Israel are already engaged in some form of citizen tracking to mitigate and reduce their infection rates. Artificial intelligence (AI) and other digital tools have the capability to capture biometrics, location data, and other indicators of infection. Given these existing and potential uses of AI, what are the privacy implications for the collection of such health data? Which groups are at risk of unintended and potentially discriminatory outcomes? How transparent will these systems be?
Speakers:
Alex Engler: Rubenstein Fellow, Governance Studies
Michelle Richardson: Director, Privacy and Data Project, Center for Democracy and Technology
Nicol Turner Lee (Moderator): Fellow, Governance Studies, Center for Technology Innovation
LGBTQ+ Movements in the Middle East: Navigating Political Unrest and Global Pandemic | April 22, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Acceptance of the LGBTQ+ community is low
across the Middle East, and LGBTQ+ individuals face a number of unique
challenges due to their identity. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to
host a virtual panel which will seek to explore the ways in which these
communities have organized in the Middle East in order to raise visibility and
advocate for greater rights, and how these efforts are under attack across the
region. Panelists will discuss the impacts that governments, laws, and society
have on the lives of LGBTQ+ people, and the ways in which grassroots
organizations and initiatives strive to support this community in the face of
backlash and the challenges of navigating the COVID-19 pandemic.
What are the major challenges LGBTQ+ people face in the
Middle East? In what ways have LGBTQ+ rights been integrated into broader
social and political movements in countries like Lebanon and Iraq? How
has COVID-19 impacted important advocacy work, and how are activists and
organizations adapting to continue to protect these communities? Is there any
hope for future protection of LGBTQ+ people in the wake of regional and global
crises?
Speakers:
Amir Ashour: Founder and executive director, IraQueer
Roula Seghaier: Executive Member, Masaha: Accessible Feminist Knowledge
Rasha Younes: Researcher, LGBT rights program, Human Rights Watch
Antoun Issa (Moderator): Non-resident scholar, MEI
The Oil Market and the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the Arab World | April 22, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
Arab Center Washington DC is organizing a webinar to discuss the impact of COVID-19 and the plunging oil prices on the economic outlook in the Arab world, including how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting economies in the region in the short and long-term, the implications of the recent price wars on Gulf economies, and the outcomes of the OPEC+ meeting.
Speakers:
Garbis Iradian: Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa, Institution of International Finance
Bessma Momani: Interim Assistant Vice-President of International Relations and Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo
Khalil E. Jahshan: Executive Director, Arab Center Washington DC
The Path to Intra-Afghan Talks | April 22, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Since the signing of the landmark U.S.-Taliban agreement on February 29, efforts to reach the next phase in the Afghanistan peace process have faced numerous obstacles, both old and new. Comprehensive Intra-Afghan negotiations, originally planned to begin within 10 days of the U.S.-Taliban agreement, have yet to occur—delayed by disagreements over the presidential election results, prisoner releases, and now the spread of coronavirus in Afghanistan and the region. One hopeful sign, however, was the announcement of a politically and ethnically inclusive negotiation team to represent the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in talks with the Taliban.
The 21-member delegation will be led by former Minister Masoom Stanekzai and includes five women. Now that a team has been formed, negotiators will need to plan their strategy for the intra-Afghan talks and develop negotiating positions on key substantive issues—including political power-sharing, the role of Islam, and the future of human rights protections and democracy in Afghanistan.
Speakers:
Masoom Stanekzai: Head of the Afghan Government Negotiation Team; former Chief of the National Directorate of Security
Habiba Sarabi: Afghan Government Negotiation Team Member; Deputy Chair, Afghanistan High Peace Council
Alexander Thier: Senior Adviser, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Founder of Triple Helix Consulting
Ambassador Richard Olson (Moderator): Senior Advisor, USIP; former US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
Andrew Wilder (Welcoming remarks): Vice President, Asia Center, USIP
COVID-19: Implications for peace and security in the Middle East | April 22, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | Brookins Institution | Register Here
The Brookings Doha Center is pleased to invite you to a webinar discussion on the implications of Covid-19 for regional peace and security. What are the short and long-term implications of the pandemic for regional security? How can regional and international powers mitigate the fallout from the pandemic? Will the crisis expand and intensify existing conflicts or could it become a rallying call for conflict resolution? How can vulnerable communities be protected? These questions, and others, will be addressed by a distinguished panel of experts.
Speakers:
Tanya Gilly-Khailany: Director, SEED
Frederic Wehrey: Senior Fellow, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Galip Dalay: Nonresident Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Ranj Alaaldin (Moderator): Visiting Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Pakistan’s Coronavirus Crisis: Impact and Solutions | April 23, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 10:30 AM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
In addition to the severe human cost, the COVID-19 crisis has forced Pakistan’s already suffering economy to a grinding halt. Social distancing policies, necessary to stop the spread of the virus, have sent the global economy reeling, paralyzed the informal economy, and left Pakistan’s most vulnerable without income and sustenance. Meanwhile, despite a $7.5 billion relief package, both central and provincial governments have struggled to respond as the number of confirmed cases continues to rise daily. As the situation stands, much more will be needed for Pakistan to effectively address the crisis.
Speakers:
Cyril Almeida: Visiting Senior Expert, USIP
Khurram Hussain: Business Editor, Dawn Newspaper
Elizabeth Threlkeld: Deputy Director, South Asia, Stimson Center
Uzair Younus: Nonresident Fellow, Atlantic Council
Tamanna Salikuddin (Moderator): Director, South Asia, USIP
Economic Shocks of COVID-19: What Next for the Caspian Basin and South Caucasus? | April 23, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The economic toll of COVID-19 around the world has been significant and the impact of this crisis will reverberate for the next few years. Iran is among the hardest hit economies but the fallout is also already felt among Iran’s immediate neighboring states, including the countries of South Caucasus and the Caspian Basin. With US sanctions severely limiting its international trade, Tehran has in recent years banked on trade with immediate neighbors as a stopgap remedy to its economic needs. This policy of prioritizing trade and other economic ties with immediate neighbors is now under seven more pressure due to COVID-19. While Iran is expected to experience a sharp economic contraction in 2020, the economic growth forecasts have also been cut in neighboring Caucasus states, requiring swift and decisive action from leaders and international partners.
The Middle East Institute (MEI) will bring together a panel of experts to explore the economic impacts of COVID-19 on Iran, the South Caucasus and the question of regional economic cooperation and integration. Besides looking at what has driven Iran’s neighborhood policy in recent years, and how it is in danger of crumbling due to COVID-19 restrictions, the panel will focus on the specific case of the energy sector where regional integration was moving ahead albeit slowly. Meanwhile, the role played by third-parties – including Russia and the US – will also be tackled by the panelists as they reflect on Iran-South Caucasus economic connections.
Speakers:
Aleksi Aleksishvili: Chairman and CEO, Policy and Management Consulting Group
Rauf Mammadov: Resident scholar on energy policy, MEI
Suzanne Maloney: Interim vice president and director, Foreign Policy program, Brookings Institution
The Middle East on Lockdown: The Impact of COVID-19 on Regional Economies | April 23, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Wilson Center | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic has driven most of the world to shut borders, close businesses, and impose lockdowns on citizen movement to mitigate the spread of the novel virus. In the Middle East and North Africa, many countries shuttered businesses and banned public gatherings accompanied by strict curfews enforced by police or national militaries. Oil and Gas producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE injected billions into their economies to ease the economic fallout. However, resource-scarce countries already suffering from economic fragility also took measures to support small and medium-sized enterprises which make up the backbone of their private sectors. With the world heading into a deep recession, the economic future of the region is indeed dire. This will likely reignite political tensions that are temporarily subdued by the lockdown and will drive a renew wave of unrest across the region.
Speakers:
David Ottaway: Middle East Fellow, Middle East Specialist and Former Washington Post Correspondent
Ibrahim Saif: CEO of Jordan Strategy Forum
Bessma Momani: Assistant Vice President of International Relations at University of Waterloo
Merissa Khurma (Moderator): Project Manager, Middle East Special Initiatives
A Changing World: What’s Next for the Middle East? | April 23, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Turkish Heritage Organization | Register Here
Join THO on Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 11AM EST for a webinar on “A Changing World: What’s Next for the Middle East?“.
Speakers:
William F. Wechsler: Director, Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Benjamin H. Friedman: Senior Fellow and Defense Scholar, Defense Priorities Lecturer, George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs
Amb. Selcuk Unal: Director General for Syria, Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs
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