Month: April 2020
Stevenson’s army, April 10
– Two Brookings scholars praise the initiation of paper hearings by Congress, just as the SASC postpones its second because of perceived problems.
–DOD has delayed its budget development schedule because of so many people working from home.
– NYT says vote by mail doesn’t always benefit Democrats, cites GOP states that like it.
– CNAS has several good papers on the national security workforce.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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He can’t talk himself out of it
Anthony Fauci is trolling Donald Trump. The President is ordering up plans to reopen businesses next month. Fauci is saying the virus will make that decision. Who is right?
Fauci is. Any decision to send people back to work before the virus is under good control will generate a giant second wave of infection and extend in both time and space the economic damage due to Covid-19. While there are some indications that infection may be beginning to peak in New York City and other hot spots, much of the country has yet to see its first wave of infection. All the states that have hesitated and resisted social distancing measures are bound to suffer next.
The one thing that could accelerate the reopening of the economy is testing. If I can be sure everyone I am working close to has been tested and found negative for the virus, then of course I’d be happy to go back to work, to movie theaters, and to school. But the Federal government has failed from the first to make enough testing available. Are you really going to go to a restaurant where someone who has not been tested is coughing at the next table? Are you going to sit in a movie theater or classroom with people who have not been tested?
A premature return to work will vastly increase the economic damage, not decrease it. Trump should be worried about that, since his prospects in the November 3 election depend heavily on the state of the economy. But this is a president who thinks he can talk himself out of trouble. The opposite is more the case. His daily press briefings are hurting his popularity, even while attracting lots of viewers. They are reminders that he and his Administration are supposed to be in charge and are therefore responsible for the disastrous impact of the epidemic in the United States.
Trump’s mendacity, ignorance and egotism are the culprits. He tried for weeks to play down the threat, then shifted to placing blame on Obama, the Chinese, WHO, and Democratic governors. His minions have followed wherever he goes, echoing his latest efforts to shirk responsibility. Fox News tries to portray him as having been right all along, despite the obvious change in his line from it’s-not-worse-than-the-flu to no-one-has-ever-seen-anything-like-this. Read David Frum’s account if have doubts.
At this point, maybe we can hope to get to the far side of this epidemic by July, but it will leave a wake of devastation that will last much longer. Lots of businesses in the US will go under. Growth may perk up before the end of 2020, but it will take years to recover fully and decades to pay off the vast increase in the public debt. The United States will lose ground economically and politically relative to other countries that have dealt more effectively with the virus, including China and Germany. Who would want to follow the leadership of a country that reacted so ineffectively to the virus as the US?
Outside the US, the big impact will be on poorer countries, where testing and treatment will be in even shorter supply. Many countries in Africa and the Middle East were already facing giant youth bulges before the virus hit. If their older and poorer populations are culled, which is what we should expect, they will be left with slowed growth and an even greater youth bulge. The consequences for stability in already unstable areas will be disastrous. Trump, who has ignored this international dimension of Covid-19’s impact, will find again that he can’t talk himself out of it.
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Stevenson’s army, April 9
– Former CIA National Intelligence Council head blasts IG purge.
– Trump and the pandemic have thwarted Congressional oversight.
– There’s a missing war powers report.
– Saudis call cease-fire in Yemen.
– Kick ’em when they’re down: Acting SecNav trip to Guam cost $243K
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 8
– Chairman Schiff says acting DNI is weakening the intelligence community.
– ABC says intelligence community warned of a “cataclysmic” pandemic in NOVEMBER.
– Historian says Trump weakened the agencies needed to fight the pandemic.
– WaPo lists misleading Trump statements since January.
– Acting SecNav Modly resigned. Not a word of apology in his letter. Check for yourself. Peter Feaver lists issues raised by the Crozier incident.
– OPM study says government hiring hindered by GS system.
– AP notes lobbying boom in pandemic.
– Taliban have withdrawn from talks.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 7
– Is it cynical to believe that Peter Navarro’s Jan & Feb memos warning about the severity of the pandemic have been leaked to multiple news outlets only now, after news came out regarding his shouting match with Dr Fauci about unproven virus treatments?
-Is
it cynical to wonder why the Justice Dept gave an exclusive report to a
Politico reporter boasting of its new push against China in multiple
efforts?
Of course not. That’s the way the leaking game is played.
NYT has more on the civ-mil clash over Capt. Crozier and the TR. Acting SecNav Modly overruled the advice of senior Navy officers in deciding on immediate relief of command.
Defense One editor says Modly and Esper are dangerously putting the military back into politics. I think the incident also shows the consequences of Acting officials: they are always more timid than a Senate-confirmed official and often seem to be auditioning for a permanent appointment. Why else would Modly preemptively do what he thinks Trump would like?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The emperor has no clothes
Pantelis Ikonomou, a retired IAEA inspector, writes:
The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) International Review Conference scheduled for April 2020 has been postponed to April 2021 due to the coronavirus outbreak. This has delayed an official outburst in the international community due to the divide between the NPT nuclear weapon states, including their close allies and the vast majority of the international community. The reason for the world rift is the frustration of most states with the lack of progress in nuclear disarmament, as agreed by the NPT.
Control and nonproliferation of nuclear weapons are gradually weakening with the termination of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty between the US and Russia, the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), and the upcoming expiration of the New START treaty. While the world focuses on the coronavirus crisis, North Korea is increasing its nuclear weapons activities and missile tests. At the same time, the US is proceeding with testing hypersonic missiles and tightening the noose around Iran’s neck, a state much weakened by the coronavirus outbreak and US nuclear sanctions.
In a recent statement supported by 13 Nobel Prize laureates, atomic scientists warned that the world is closer to a nuclear catastrophe than at any time since 1945. The risk of a nuclear war is now higher than ever before due also to the increasing number of uncontrolled cyberattacks and the rising probability of a mistake in calculation or an accident.
Qualitative and costly upgrading (“modernization”) is compensating for a quantitative decrease of nuclear arms. The related military expenditures are disproportionate to national health care expenditures. According to the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, the four nuclear weapon states USA, Russia, UK, and France plan to spend more than $1 trillion for “modernizing” their nuclear arsenals and delivery means over the next ten years. At the same time these very states, hit by the coronavirus, responded with delay and dysfunction to the pandemic due to shortages of vital medical supplies.
Characteristic of this grave reality is the case of the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt. This strategic spearhead was hit by the coronavirus some days ago. The lives of 5000 crew members were at risk, as was the prestige of the United States. The commander of the aircraft carrier sent a stark warning to his superiors urging them to act decisively in order to save the sailors’ lives from the virus spread. Some days later his letter leaked to the news media. The response was quick: the commander was relieved of his duties.
In this climate of fear and despair, how could politicians persuade the mostly uninformed international public that wide-spread conspiracy theories of the creation of the corona virus at American, Chinese or Canadian laboratories, as part of a military biological weapon, are all scientifically disproven? How could governments and world leaders, convince their citizens and the international community that they are able to protect them from a global catastrophe ? How credible are leaders who do not personally follow nor publicly apply the universal instructions of the World Health Organization, e.g. wearing face protection and testing as many citizens as possible?
The strategy of addressing a pandemic essentially considers, as any other comprehensive security plan does, three key components: prevention, detection and response. The appropriate measures for detecting and responding to the Covid-19 outbreak should stem from a holistic national security plan addressing pandemics. Such national plans ought to have been developed and be continuously updated by competent experts and thoroughly implemented under capable leadership. This is the global strategy for tackling the risks of all major threats, anthropogenic or not, whether military, humanitarian, or ecological.
Mankind’s most effective weapon is scientific knowledge and people’s solidarity. Moreover, in periods of global crises history has shown that real leaders have made the difference. This time the emperor has no clothes.
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