Month: May 2020
Tenuous transitions
“The two most populous countries in the Horn of Africa—Ethiopia and Sudan—are both struggling with once-in-a-generation political transitions. Complicating these already tenuous transitions is a convergence of worrying trends, such as widespread food insecurity, severe pressure on public finances, ongoing or unresolved internal conflicts, large numbers of displaced persons, and now, the coronavirus pandemic. The fate of the transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan may determine the broader prospects for peace in the region for years to come.” On May 28, the United States Institute of Peace held an online discussion on the specific challenges facing the political transitions in these countries. The discussion was led by Aly Verjee and featured four speakers:
Manal Taha: Sudan Program Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Payton Knopf: Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Aaron Maasho: Independent Journalist
Emebet Getachew: Ethiopia County Program Manager, Life and Peace Institute
Aly Verjee (Moderator): Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Current Context
In opening remarks, Verjee underscored that moments of great promise and great peril characterize the current transitions of both Ethiopia and Sudan. Striking parallels in regard to internal tensions, inclusivity, economic and environmental pressures, and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic tie these nations together despite their differences.
Sudan
Taha believes that in order to make any real progress, the transitional government of Sudan must change its focus of reform within the capital of Khartoum to the regions in which the revolution began. Security reform, in particular, remains complicated in Darfur because of the presence of various armed groups. During the transition in Sudan, the voices of youth and women have remained underrepresented. This notable weakness of the transitional government can in part be attributed to the inherent patriarchal social structure of Sudanese society. To remedy this problem, Taha calls for further solidarity among Sudanese women across political and socio-economic lines.
Knopf highlighted that in the year since the Sudanese revolution took place and Omar al-Bashir was deposed, many citizens maintained unrealistic expectations for the pace of change within Sudan. The vast majority of Sudanese people sense opportunity for renewal, reinvigorating Sudanese cultural pride and patriotism that was tarnished from years of brutality by the al-Bashir regime. The establishment of the transitional arrangement in Sudan avoided the worst-case scenarios of state fragmentation or dramatic escalation of violence.
Ethiopia
Speaking on the election of Abiy Ahmed as the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Maasho noted that a sense of optimism initially erupted across the country. Since then, Ethiopia has remained quite fragile and ravaged by ethnic tensions and rivalry. In the last three years, ethnic violence has led to the displacement of nearly three million people. Although the Ethiopian government has pressured displaced peoples to return to their communities, further eruptions of violence remain likely. Notably, Maasho believes that Covid-19 has generated a downward economic trajectory that will exacerbate tensions.
Getachew stresses that the government of Abiy Ahmed is trying to further consolidate its power and build institutions reflective of its own interests. The failure to establish checks and balances will result in authoritarianism. It remains too early to discern whether democracy has truly arrived in Ethiopia. In regard to the status of women, Getachew praised the appointment of women to various governmental positions. Although this may signal that Ethiopians are ready for women to hold key positions within society, one must remain skeptical of deeply entrenched ideas that have informed gender-based discrimination.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Peace Picks | June 1 – 5
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- Webinar: How COVID-19 and the oil shock will reshape the Middle East | June 1, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | Brookings | Register Here
COVID–19 and the recent plunge in oil prices have shaken the Middle East to its core. Middle East economies rely heavily on oil, remittances, and tourism, all three of which have been decimated by the second-order effects of the pandemic. The simultaneous shocks will challenge states across the region, particularly those that are already struggling or are otherwise fragile. With added pressure on governments to slow the spread of the virus, the pandemic will ultimately change both domestic and regional politics and economies in the Middle East.
Speakers:
Hady Amr (Moderator): Nonresident Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy
Jihad Azour: Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department – International Monetary Fund; Lebanon’s Finance Minister 2005 – 2008
Samatha Gross: Fellow, Foreign Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative
Rola Dashti: Undersecretary General and Executive Secretary – United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia; Former Minister of Planning and Development for Kuwait
- Egypt’s Diplomacy in War, Peace, and Transition | June 1, 2020 | 10:30 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a virtual panel with the American University in Cairo (AUC) to launch Egypt’s Diplomacy in War, Peace and Transition, a book by AUC’s dean of the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy (GAPP), Nabil Fahmy. The book examines the transformation of Egyptian diplomacy within the region and globe, covering a wide range of issues including the Arab-Israeli peace process, nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, and relations with major international and regional players. Fahmy offers unique insights sharing his experiences as the country’s Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Japan and the United States.
Given Egypt’s myriad economic and geopolitical challenges, what role might it play in the regional de-escalation efforts? Egypt’s Diplomacy in War, Peace and Transition offers a series of potential trajectories for the future of Egypt and its relations within the region and the world. The panelists will discuss the development of Egypt’s foreign policy as well as the past and ongoing regional processes.
Speakers:
Lisa Anderson: Former President, The American University in Cairo
Amb. Nabil Fahmy: Former Foreign Affairs Minister of Egypt, Founding Dean of GAPP and Distinguished University Professor of Practice in International Diplomacy, The American University in Cairo
Paul Salem: President, Middle East Institute
Tarek Masoud (Moderator): Professor of Public Policy and Sultan Qaboos bin Said of Oman, Professor of International Relations, Harvard University
- Navigating the Future of South Yemen | June 2, 2020 | 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute |Register Here
South Yemen today faces many turbulent converging challenges, from the spread of COVID-19 to floods, electricity cuts, and The Southern Transitional Council’s (STC) self-rule decision. The April 25th self-rule decision by the STC drew international concern about the potential for escalation in the South and implications for the Riyadh agreement, which the Saudis brokered between the internationally recognized government of Abed Rabbeh Mansour Hadi and the STC last year. Meanwhile, military confrontations in Abyan threatens a new conflict south of the country.
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a virtual panel of Yemeni experts to explore the various current dynamics impacting South Yemen and how they view the path forward. What are the hurdles facing the implementation of the Riyadh agreement? How will the STC’s self-rule decision impact future peace negotiations? How has the Hadi government responded to the flooding and electricity cuts and COVID19? Is the STC capable of dealing with the security and economic challenges and delivering good governance?
Speakers:
Dr. Saadaldeen Ali Talib: Former Minister of Industry and Trade, Yemen
Dr. Abdelqader al-Junaid: Physician and well-known political activist in Ta’iz
Yasmin Al-Nadheri: Executive Director, Peace Track Initiative
Amr Al-Beidth: Member of the Presidential Council, the Southern Transitional Council
Fatima Abo Alasrar (Moderator): Non-resident Scholar, Middle East Institute
- Breaking Bread: Food in Times of COVID-19 | June 2, 2020| 9:30 AM| Middle East Institute | Register Here
In this period of global lockdown and anxiety, food has emerged as a central player – a source of comfort and community-building for some, for others a reminder of growing economic uncertainty and inequality.
In the Middle East, with its strong culinary culture, the pandemic has led to a revival of traditional food practices and recipes that have long been advocated by many, as well as to questions about how to advance small scale farming and more sustainable agriculture, in response to growing economic challenges.
The panel “Breaking Bread: Food in Times of COVID-19″ will explore the role that food has played during this unprecedented pandemic with a focus on Middle Eastern communities. Bringing together voices from the Arab world, whose contributions have shaped this conversation, panelists will also explore how this pandemic might change our relationship to what we eat and how we grow it.
Speakers:
Aisha Al Fadhalah: Co-Founder, MERA Kitchen
Mirna Bamieh: Artist, cook and Founder of Palestine Hosting Society
Kamal Mouzawak: Founder of Lebanon’s first farmer’s market, Souk El Tayeb, restauranteur, and food entrepreneur
Antonio Tahhan (Moderator): Syrian-Venezuelan food writer, researcher and storyteller
- The Threat of Israeli Annexation: Regional and International Implications | June 3, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
Arab Center Washington DC and the Institute for Palestine Studies are organizing a webinar to discuss the implications of the Israeli plan to annex vast areas of Palestinian land and extend Israeli sovereignty over illegal settlements in the West Bank. The discussion will also explore the implications of the recent announcement by Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas that the PA will end all agreements and understandings signed with Israel and the United States.
Speakers:
Noura Erakat: Human Rights Attorney, Assistant Professor, Rutgers University
Leila Farsakh: Associate Professor and Chair, Political Science Department, University of Massachusetts Boston
Khalil E. Jahshan: Executive Director, Arab Center Washington DC
Rashid Khalidi: Edward Said Professor of Modern Arab Studies, Columbia University, Co-Editor, Journal of Palestine Studies, President, Institute for Palestine Studies-USA
Nasser Al-Kidwa: Chairman of the Board of Directors, Yasser Arafat Foundation, Former Palestinian Representative to the United Nations
Raef Zreik: Associate Professor of Law, Ono Academic College, Co-Director of Minerva Center for the Humanities, Tel Aviv University
Tamara Kharroub (Moderator) : Assistant Executive Director and Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
- East Asia in the Post-COVID-19 World: China and Beyond | June 3, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:30PM | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here
This webinar will discuss the Reischauer Center’s new COVID-19 Policy Research Task Force report, examining how East Asia’s successful COVID-19 response is accelerating the region’s geopolitical rise. While considering the changing role of China in regional and global affairs, the seminar will also examine in detail the heightened evaluation of other nations, including Korea, Japan, and Singapore, due to their effective pandemic responses and dynamic medical diplomacy. The webinar will also consider emerging patterns of conflict, and how East Asia’s centrality in the world medical supply chain may be reconfigured as Europe and the United States legislate medical supply reforms.
- Turkish-Russian Cooperation and Implications for Black Sea Security | June 4, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Defying warnings and threats of sanctions from its NATO allies, Turkey went ahead with its purchase of the Russian S400 missile defense system. The first elements of the system arrived in Turkey last summer. Subsequently, the US has removed Turkey from the F35 Joint Strike Fighter program. Turkey will not be able to import any F-35s, and its aerospace industry will lose out on billions of dollars in F-35 contract work and the associated technology transfer. But Turkey still needs fighter jets. The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss the future of Turkey’s defense posture.
What are Turkey’s options? Can Russia fill the gap? Where does Turkey’s S400 decision and the US decision to kick Turkey out of the F35 program leave NATO? Will this lead to a fundamental shift in Turkey’s geostrategic outlook?
Speakers:
Caglar Kurc: Adjunct Instructor, Department of International Relations, Bilkent University
Aaron Stein: Director, Middle East Program, Foreign Policy Research Institute
Maxim Suchkov: Senior Fellow and Associate Professor, Moscow State Institute of International Relations
Gonul Tol (Moderator): Director of Turkey Program and Senior Fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, Middle East Institute
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, May 30
– The president may want to use active duty US troops in Minnesota and elsewhere, but there are limits, making it unlikely. National Guard under control of the governors is already occurring.
– The president also wants to get out of WHO, but that’s illegal, too.
– The Flynn calls with the Russian ambassador have been released. Flynn lied and may have broken the moribund Logan Act, too.
– Hudson Institute has leading China hawks. Here are their latest pubs
– FP says Taliban are in disarray.
– NYT says Colonel heading Niger operation has been denied his promotion to one-star.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Serious questions
There is nothing magical about 100,000 dead. It is just like the number 101,239, which no doubt America has now also crossed. Whichever number is attached to your death, your relatives will mourn, your friends will grieve, your colleagues and acquaintances will miss your presence. But for those of us more removed, our minds anchor on round numbers as milestones. They give us pause. They provide an opportunity to reflect. And they make us wonder where we are headed.
Not, however, if you are Donald Trump. He instead tried to distract attention with false allegations about a TV news anchor and false claims about fraud associated with voting by mail. Forty per cent of Americans like this mendacious approach to governance–they remain loyal no matter what. They know that black and brown people are dying from Covid-19 more often than white ones. They know cities have been harder hit than rural areas. They figure voting by mail will help Democrats more than Republicans.
Their comfort will be short-lived. Covid-19 is headed into rural areas and Red states. White people, especially older Trump-supporting males, will soon be dying in more proportional numbers. The economy may show positive numbers in coming months, but we are in a deep trough and odds are strong we’ll be nowhere near the early 2020 peak before election day November 3. President Trump will end his first term with a year of recession behind him.
My friends are concerned that Joe Biden is not doing enough to defeat Trump. I beg to differ. It seems to me that letting Trump hang himself has been an effective part of Biden’s strategy. I don’t really care what the polls say this far out, but when a President is underwater in approval about five months before Election Day, he is in trouble. Most presidents in the past would have reached out to moderates, independents, and potential cross-overs. Not Donald Trump: he is instead trying to corner the mostly white, mostly male, racist vote. He retweets “the only good Democrat is a dead Democrat” and then tweets “When the looting starts, the shooting starts.” Even for Twitter, this was too much and they labelled it as glorifying violence.
Let me be clear: I don’t like the violence in Minneapolis and its political impact could be disastrous. Law and order candidate Richard Nixon in 1968 benefited greatly from disorder. The threat of violence may be an important political factor in favor of those who wield it. But the fact of violence limits popular support and turns off a lot of people. Nonviolent discipline is a vital ingredient in popular uprisings.
Trump has gotten away with incitement to violence his entire life. He is not going to change now. He is going to run a divisive campaign while Biden tries to run a dignified and welcoming one. The only real question is which the Americans prefer. There is no real doubt about the numerical majority: the popular vote will go for Biden, by millions. But American elections are decided in the Electoral College, which gives mostly white rural America grossly disproportionate weight. Two out of the last three Republican presidents were elected without a majority of the popular vote. One more of those would raise serious questions about the sustainability of American democracy.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, May 29
-The Lugar Center rates congressional committees on their degree of oversight. The measure is quantitative rather than qualitative, but still interesting. Notable to me is the low ratings given the foreign policy committees and the disparate rankings of the appropriations panels.
– President Trump said yesterday he would be making a major statement on China today. BOLO.
-UK might give Hong Kongers born before 1997 transfer pathway to UK citizenship.
– FT says Gazprom has won out over US sanctions on NordStream2.
-Prof. Karlin and Alice Friend of CSIS have excellent piece on how civilians should give guidance to the military.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, May 28
– SecState Pompeo has made a ruling on Hong Kong required by a law Congress passed last year. Here’s a CRS backgrounder on Hong Kong.
– Several organizations have newsletters on China. Axios has one. Politico has just started one.
– NYT says Trump will expel Chinese graduate students in the US who have ties to the Chinese military.
– Bipartisan support for the “Pacific Deterrence Initiative.“
– Daily Beast says administration plans new arms sale to Saudi Arabia.
– Lawfare writer tees up key foreign policy legal issues a Biden administration would face right away.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
