Day: May 5, 2020
Trump’s second wave
Yesterday was the worst day of Covid-19 in the US. Not just because more than 2000 people died (as they have every day since April 8) and about 30,000 new cases were confirmed, but because the most reliable of the modeling groups more than doubled its estimate of deaths by August. The “opening of the economy” that President Trump is cheering is now projected to kill an additional 70,000 Americans or so.
This new projection also spells eventual disaster for the economy. As cases expand in states that failed ever to close and that opened prematurely, people will return to quarantining themselves, disrupting the recovery and reducing demand dramatically. The impact will not be limited to a few states, as infected individuals will be traveling country-wide. The still negligible availability of tests to the broader public will guarantee that they infect many others, without any serious possibility of contact tracing in many parts of the country. This is a chain reaction. Once it starts, it will be just as difficult to stop as the first wave, which is still ongoing.
Donald Trump is trying to shift the blame to China, where officials initially tried to hush news of the new corona virus, and the World Health Organization, which praised the Chinese for their vigorous response later. But the President himself repeatedly also praised the Chinese reaction and delayed action in the US to meet the challenge. During January, February, and at least half of March, Trump did everything he could to minimize the epidemic and delay a serious response. The Federal government failed to provide for adequate testing and never insisted on social distancing.
Donald Trump is politically responsible for this mess. Not just because the buck stops on the President’s desk, but also because his decisions and non-decisions determined the outcome. The trillions of dollars in stimulus money the Congress has appropriated are going to fail to have the intended impact if the second wave of this virus is as big–or possibly even bigger–than the first. Jobs, businesses, and profits are all going to be hit harder than they have been so far.
Anthony Fauci, now muzzled, gave what is likely his farewell interview as a government employee to National Geographic. He is now muzzled and may quit or be fired. He finds no evidence that the Covid-19 virus was made in a lab or even that it unintentionally crossed from a non-human to human host there, despite the brazen claims of Secretary of State Pompeo, who wouldn’t know a virus from a tree. Fauci is also anticipating a second wave. His only bit of hope is for an early vaccine, which won’t however arrive before January. By then, Trump’s second wave will have killed 70,000 more Americans.
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Stevenson’s army, May 5
– Several reports cite other governments that dispute the Pompeo claims about the Wuhan lab. See this from the Guardian and this from FP.
-But Post columnist Henry Olsen sees the China issue as good politics.
– Dan Baer proposes an alternative approach.
– Since I made so much of my fight to kill the B-1 when I was a Senate staffer, I feel obligated to send this report on how the plan is still in business.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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