Tenuous transitions

“The two most populous countries in the Horn of Africa—Ethiopia and Sudan—are both struggling with once-in-a-generation political transitions. Complicating these already tenuous transitions is a convergence of worrying trends, such as widespread food insecurity, severe pressure on public finances, ongoing or unresolved internal conflicts, large numbers of displaced persons, and now, the coronavirus pandemic. The fate of the transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan may determine the broader prospects for peace in the region for years to come.” On May 28, the United States Institute of Peace held an online discussion on the specific challenges facing the political transitions in these countries. The discussion was led by Aly Verjee and featured four speakers:

Manal Taha: Sudan Program Advisor, United States Institute of Peace

Payton Knopf: Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace

Aaron Maasho: Independent Journalist 

Emebet Getachew: Ethiopia County Program Manager, Life and Peace Institute

Aly Verjee (Moderator): Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace

Current Context

In opening remarks, Verjee underscored that moments of great promise and great peril characterize the current transitions of both Ethiopia and Sudan. Striking parallels in regard to internal tensions, inclusivity, economic and environmental pressures, and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic tie these nations together despite their differences.

Sudan

Taha believes that in order to make any real progress, the transitional government of Sudan must change its focus of reform within the capital of Khartoum to the regions in which the revolution began. Security reform, in particular, remains complicated in Darfur because of the presence of various armed groups. During the transition in Sudan, the voices of youth and women have remained underrepresented. This notable weakness of the transitional government can in part be attributed to the inherent patriarchal social structure of Sudanese society. To remedy this problem, Taha calls for further solidarity among Sudanese women across political and socio-economic lines. 

Knopf highlighted that in the year since the Sudanese revolution took place and Omar al-Bashir was deposed, many citizens maintained unrealistic expectations for the pace of change within Sudan. The vast majority of Sudanese people sense opportunity for renewal, reinvigorating Sudanese cultural pride and patriotism that was tarnished from years of brutality by the al-Bashir regime. The establishment of the transitional arrangement in Sudan avoided the worst-case scenarios of state fragmentation or dramatic escalation of violence. 

Ethiopia

Speaking on the election of Abiy Ahmed as the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Maasho noted that a sense of optimism initially erupted across the country. Since then, Ethiopia has remained quite fragile and ravaged by ethnic tensions and rivalry. In the last three years, ethnic violence has led to the displacement of nearly three million people. Although the Ethiopian government has pressured displaced peoples to return to their communities, further eruptions of violence remain likely. Notably, Maasho believes that Covid-19 has generated a downward economic trajectory that will exacerbate tensions. 

Getachew stresses that the government of Abiy Ahmed is trying to further consolidate its power and build institutions reflective of its own interests. The failure to establish checks and balances will result in authoritarianism. It remains too early to discern whether democracy has truly arrived in Ethiopia. In regard to the status of women, Getachew praised the appointment of women to various governmental positions. Although this may signal that Ethiopians are ready for women to hold key positions within society, one must remain skeptical of deeply entrenched ideas that have informed gender-based discrimination.