Month: May 2020
Stevenson’s army, May 27
– Several sources confirm NYT story that, to meet Trump’s demand to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan before the US elections, Pentagon planners will present options including that one,but recommending delay until at least May 2021.
– Africom head accuses Russia of sending camouflaged planes to fight in Libya.
-FT has more on the growing rift between China and Australia.
-Lawfare lists the US factions in the China debate
-Politico says Pompeo courted civic leaders while at CIA, too.
Recommendation for military officers: I just finished former CJCS General Martin Dempsey’s memoir. It’s mainly a collection of stories of Army life, both at West Point and in recent years, with common sense lessons offered. I was especially interested in how he depicts civil-military relations under OBama.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Covid crackdowns and mobilization
“Government responses to the new coronavirus are disrupting civil society all over the world. But while government measures are dramatically restricting civic space, the global crisis is also catalyzing new forms of mobilization.” On May 20, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted a discussion on “Global Civil Society and the Pandemic.” The discussion was moderated by Thomas Carothers and featured three other guest speakers:
Thomas Carothers (Moderator): Senior Vice President for studies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Yousseff Cherif: Deputy Director of Columbia Global Centers, Tunis
Maureen Kademaunga: Doctoral Researcher at the Human Economy Research Program, University of Pretoria, South Africa
Janjira Sombatpoonsiri: Associate Fellow at the German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA)
Vijayan MJ: Independent researcher and writer, Research Collective, New Delhi, India
Current context
In his opening remarks, Carothers touched on the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s current research on the state of civil activism throughout the world. There are conflicting narratives. On one hand, there has been a trend toward governmental restriction on the role and function of civil society. On the other hand, a new generation of dynamic, fluid, and tech-savvy civil activists has emerged despite increasing state restrictions.
Carothers believes that the COVID-19 pandemic intensifies this dualism within civil society. Many governments throughout the world have implemented state lockdowns and have increased restrictions on freedom of movement, freedom of association, and freedom of speech. Carothers views the current period as “the most restrictive period in living memory for civic activism.” Despite this fact, Carothers highlights that the COVID-19 pandemic creates an enormous need for citizens to engage, respond, and find ways to improve governmental responses to the virus.
Changing roles
Cherif highlights new roles the COVID-19 pandemic has created for civil society groups in Tunisia. Many organizations have shifted their work from democracy promotion and governance to combating COVID-19. This includes aiding hospitals, distributing masks, and cleaning public spaces. In places where the government has proven to be inefficient or too weak to act, civil society groups have continued the work of government and have led COVID-19 relief initiatives. Although the Tunisian government has shown interest in working with these groups during the pandemic, Cherif believes that future cooperation remains unlikely.
Kademaunga believes that the government of Zimbabwe has utilized the COVID-19 crisis to justify further restrictions on civil society groups. Government human rights abuses against civil society groups in Zimbabwe are increasing. Simultaneously, these groups continue to increase their efforts in assisting the government of Zimbabwe in the provision of essential services during the current lockdown.
Vijayan states that civil society groups in India quickly changed their agendas at the start of the COVID-19 crisis. During the initial stages of the pandemic, civil society groups took charge when the Indian government remained absent. Indian civil society groups have been more efficient than the Indian government in devising a plan of action.
Transformation of activist means
Cherif observes that the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically increased the online presence of civil society groups on various digital platforms throughout the Arab world. Civil society groups have utilized webinars as spaces for new online discussions. Notably, some have started to increase their educational initiatives online.
Kademaunga predicts that the shift towards online platforms post-COVID-19 will harm those in rural areas who do not possess widespread digital access. Previously, in Zimbabwe they accounted for the majority of civil society participation. Kademaunga stressed that this changing dynamic will foster heightened inequality between rural and urban areas. Ultimately, those within urban centers will dominate the agenda making processes for civil society groups.
A pivotal moment for legitimacy
Cherif regards the COVID-19 pandemic as pivotal to how ordinary citizens view the legitimacy of civil society groups. Previously, the majority of Tunisians viewed civil society groups as unfavorable and distant from the rest of society. Due to their integral role in providing support during the current crisis, these groups have gained legitimacy and favorability.
Kademaunga believes that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about a major change in the perception of civil society society groups in Zimbabwe. Traditionally, the government of Zimbabwe has fueled negative discourse against civil society groups. However, the role of civil society groups in providing aid amid the COVID-19 pandemic disproves negative stereotypes that portray these groups as being in opposition to the interests of general citizens.
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Stevenson’s army, May 26
– FT says Australia is launching a soft power offensive to counter China.
– To help out, SecState Pompeo threatens to cut off intelligence sharing with Australia.
– No wonder Dan Drezner dumps on Pompeo
– Meanwhile, China announced its defense budget.
– FP doubts US effort to replace China on rare earths will work.
– FP also calls the US-China trade deal dead.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | May 26 – 30
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- The IRGC Quds Force After Suleimani | May 26, 2020 | 9:30 AM | Arab Gulf States Institute | Register Here
The January 3 killing of Major General Qassim Suleimani, commander of the expeditionary Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, brought the Quds Force further to the forefront of the Islamic Republic’s “maximum resistance” campaign to counter the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign. However, the new Quds Force leadership is not only inheriting a military organization stretched thin over a vast geographic area but also faces greater public hostility against the Islamic Republic and its allies in places like Iraq, the main arena of rivalry between the United States and Iran.
How is the killing of Suleimani likely to change Iran’s grand strategy and Quds Force operations in Iraq and beyond? Who is Ismail Qaani, the new commander of the Quds force, and how is he likely to approach these challenges and adapt his organization to the changed circumstances?
Speakers:
Hussein Ibish (Moderator): Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute
Ali Alfoneh: Senior Fellow, Arab Gulf States Institute
Kori Schake: Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute
General Joseph L. Votel: U.S. Army (Ret.)
- Nuclear Deterrence with Russia and China: How are U.S. Course Corrections Needed? | May 26, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM | CATO Institute | Register Here
As the United States shifts the focus of its foreign and defense policies toward great‐power competition, experts have paid more attention to Russian and Chinese nuclear force postures and strategies. The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) paints a concerning picture of recent developments in both potential adversaries, noting the growth of arsenals and approaches to nuclear strategy that vex U.S. policymakers. The assessments and threat perceptions laid out in the NPR will drive U.S. nuclear strategy for the rest of the Trump administration and potentially beyond because they inform plans for U.S. nuclear modernization.
In the two years since the 2018 NPR’s release, the Trump administration has put its stamp on America’s approach to nuclear deterrence. The administration is clearly worried about the nuclear arsenals and strategies of Russia and China, and many of the NPR’s more controversial items, such as the low‐yield Trident warhead, are explicitly tied to nuclear developments in potential great‐power adversaries.
But has the United States accurately diagnosed the most important problems posed by other great powers? Is Washington designing the right solutions to these problems? What are the risks of misdiagnoses and/or wrong policy solutions? The COVID-19 pandemic has made finding answers to these questions all the more urgent. The economic fallout of the public health emergency will likely create strong budgetary pressures and subject the multidecade, $1 trillion–plus nuclear modernization plan to closer scrutiny.
Speakers:
Eric Gomez: Director of Defense Policy Studies, CATO Institute
Fiona Cunningham: Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, George Washington University
Michael Kofman: Direction of the Russia Studies Program, CNA
Amy F. Woolf: Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy, Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress
- Democracy’s Defenders – American Diplomacy in the age of COVID-19 | May 26, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Brookings | Register Here
In his new book, “Democracy’s Defenders: U.S. Embassy Prague, the Fall of Communism in Czechoslovakia, and Its Aftermath,” Brookings Senior Fellow Norman Eisen examines the role of American diplomats in supporting the end of Communism three decades ago and promoting democratic values since.
On May 26, Governance Studies at Brookings and the Transatlantic Democracy Working Group will co-host a webinar to discuss themes in Eisen’s latest book. Panelists will explore the role of the foreign service in advancing American values abroad, what we can learn from the successes and failures of U.S. foreign policy in Central and Eastern Europe over the past three decades, and the lessons foreign policy holds for all those facing the challenges of transatlantic relations today. The talk will also focus on how American diplomacy and transatlantic democracy has responded to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Today many of those same Czechs and Slovaks are walking the identical boulevards, now wearing masks—does the U.S. still support them in this latest crisis?
Speakers:
Norman Eisen (Moderator) : Senior Fellow, Governance Studies
Alina Polyakova: Former Brookings Expert, President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis
Jeff Gedmin: Editor-in-Chief of The American Interest, Senior Fellow-Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, Co-chair-Transatlantic Democracy Working Group
- Humanitarian Operations During COVID-19 : A Conversation with Michelle Nunn of CARE USA |May 26, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 4: 45PM | Center for Strategic & International Studies | Register Here
The spread of Covid-19 continues to dominate global attention. Governments are primarily focusing efforts on the domestic response to the virus. With 168 million people in need of humanitarian assistance globally, including 70 million forcibly displaced, understanding how the pandemic will impact the most vulnerable is vital to implementing an effective response. In this upcoming series, the CSIS Humanitarian Agenda will speak with leadership across humanitarian institutions about the challenges their organizations face during Covid-19. Our featured guests will give their insights on how the pandemic is changing the humanitarian landscape and the impact it has on the delivery of lifesaving assistance now and in the near future.
The Center for Strategic & International Studies is pleased to invite Michelle Nunn, President and CEO of CARE USA, for a discussion on CARE’s response to the pandemic and the challenges they foresee on the horizon. This conversation will look at what strategies have been implemented, with a particular focus on the gender and economic development impacts of the pandemic.
Speakers:
Michelle Nunn: President and CEO, CARE USA
Jacob Kurtzer: Interim Director and Senior, Humanitarian Agenda
Katherine Bliss: Senior Fellow, Global Health Policy Center
- Tenuous Transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan | May 28, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 10:45 AM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
The two most populous countries in the Horn of Africa—Ethiopia and Sudan—are both struggling with once-in-a-generation political transitions. Complicating these already tenuous transitions is a convergence of worrying trends, such as widespread food insecurity, severe pressure on public finances, ongoing or unresolved internal conflicts, large numbers of displaced persons, and now, the coronavirus pandemic. The fate of the transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan may determine the broader prospects for peace in the region for years to come.
At this critical time in history for the Horn of Africa, join USIP and experts from Ethiopia and Sudan for a discussion on the specific challenges facing the political transitions in these two countries, as well as key parallels.
Speakers:
Aly Verjee (Moderator): Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Manal Taha: Sudan Program Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Payton Knopf: Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Aaron Maasho: Independent Journalist
Emebet Getachew: Ethiopia Country Program Manager, Life and Peace Institute
- Iran, Russia, Pakistan, and Afghanistan: Prospects and Potential Trajectories | May 28, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM |Middle East Institute| Register Here
As the United States continues to engage in peace talks with the Taliban, even as Washington considers its future military presence in Afghanistan, the country’s uncertain future provides an opportunity for regional power competition. Recent developments have laid the groundwork for coordination between Iran and Russia in this space, a cooperation which has implications for Iran’s rivalry with Pakistan. At stake in this interplay of regional interests are long-term geopolitical, military and economic interests that can be shaped for years to come.
How might Iran approach the divergent and common interests of Iran, Russia and Pakistan in Afghanistan? What are Iran’s priorities, and where might opportunities emerge for cooperation or conflict? How might Iran balance these competing interests, and what will be the impact on the ground in Afghanistan? The Middle East Institute is proud to host a group of experts to address these questions and more.
Speakers:
Madiha Afzal: David M. Rubenstein Fellow, Foreign Policy program, The Brookings Institution
Fatemeh Aman: Nonresident Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council
Kamran Bokhari: Director of analytical development, Center for Global Policy
Amin Tarzi: Director, Middle East studies, Marine Corps University
Alex Vatanka: (Moderator) Senior Fellow and Director, Iran program, Middle East Institute
- Jihadism at a crossroads | May 29, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM | Brookings | Register Here
Although jihadist groups have gripped the world’s attention for more than 20 years, today they are no longer in the spotlight. However, ISIS, al-Qaida, and al-Shabab remain active, and new groups have emerged. The movement as a whole is evolving, as is the threat it poses.
On May 29, the Center for Middle East Policy will host a virtual panel event to discuss the current status of jihadist groups. The panel will feature Thomas Hegghammer, senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment and author of the new book, “The Caravan: Abdallah Azzam and the Rise of Global Jihad.” Other panelists will include Tricia Bacon, assistant professor at American University, and Bruce Riedel, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Brookings Senior Fellow Daniel Byman will moderate the discussion.
Speakers:
Daniel L. Byman (Moderator): Senior Fellow-Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
Bruce Riedel: Senior Fellow-Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy, Director- The Intelligence Project
Tricia Bacon: Professional Lecturer, School of Public Affairs, American University
Thomas Hegghammer: Senior Research Fellow-Norweigan Defence Research Establishment (FFI)
- Strained Cooperation or a Final Rupture? China – U.S. Relations Amidst a Global Pandemic | May 30, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here
The discourse surrounding Sino-US relations in the past decade has often been framed in the context of the “Thucydides Trap,” where conflict between a rising power (China) and the world’s incumbent power (America) is inevitable. The global pandemic has heightened international tensions and is testing global cooperation frameworks. This forum on Saturday, May 30, invites Dr. Adam Webb, Dr. David Arase and Dr. David Bulman to discuss how the global pandemic is impacting nternational relations.
Speakers:
Dr. Adam Webb: American Co-Director, Hopkins-Nanjing Center, Resident Professor of Political Science
Dr. David Arase: Resident Professor of International Politics, Hopkins- Nanjing Center
Dr. David Bulman: Jill McGovern and Steven Muller Assistant Professor of International Affairs and China Studies, Director of Pacific Community Initiative at Johns Hopkins University SAIS
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Reopening
One thing we know for sure: reopening will not go smoothly. Covid-19 has re-surged in countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and Germany that have managed the virus relatively well. China too has faced difficulties, despite its draconian methods.
In the United States, the initial approach to managing the virus was erratic and incoherent. The Federal government was often counterproductive. Basically the states took the lead, each in its own way. On the whole, Red states shut down less and are opening up earlier. Blue states shut down more and are opening up later. This is due in part to their different demographic characteristics: most Red states are more rural than most Blue states and saw less of the virus in the first wave.
President Trump has encouraged reopening in spite of Federal guidelines that urged more caution. His stated concern is “the economy,” but premature reopening isn’t going to do much to stem the tsunami of unemployed, 38 million total as of this week, or to get people who have alternatives to go back to work in situations where their health is at risk. It looks as if he is setting himself up for a second wave of infections, including in Red states, sometime around August/September, just as the fall electoral campaign heats up.
Politically, that isn’t the worst outcome I can think of, as I hope Trump is not re-elected. But it is terrible for the country, which has already suffered almost 100,000 people dead and another 50,000 or more likely to die in the next few months. The immediate economic toll is simply gigantic: worse than the financial crisis of 2008 and more or less the dimensions of the the 1930s depression.
Even with reopening, the economy will not be going back to its pre-epidemic state. Lots of businesses are closing permanently. Those that reopen will do so in conditions much less auspicious than before. No restaurant can afford to lose half or more of its tables to the need for social distancing without a big impact on the bottom line. Production facilities likewise face requirements to separate their personnel that will be expensive. Universities will find it hard to conduct in-person classes, many foreign students will find it difficult to get visas to enter the US, and dormitories risk becoming Covid-19 hot spots.
The big economic winners from the epidemic are the giant retailers like Walmart and Amazon that take orders remotely and deliver products rapidly. Small shops, gas stations, non-chain restaurants, mom-and-pop groceries are imploding. Most Federal government aid is going to relatively strong enterprises that know how to fill out forms quickly and have established contacts with lenders. The strong will get relatively stronger, while the weak will close.
President Trump is ignoring the virus this Memorial Day weekend, in favor of golf and the usual visits to military cemeteries. He is also urging reopening of schools. His strategy at this point is to hope Covid-19 goes away. That isn’t likely, and the reopening isn’t going to help.
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Stevenson’s army, May 25
On this Memorial Day I want to honor Captain Levi Ely, head of an 88-man company from Springfield, Massachusetts, who died in combat in upstate New York in October, 1780. Captain Ely was a direct ancestor of my father’s mother. One of his ancestors, Nathaniel Ely, came to America in 1620 on the Mayflower, not as a pilgrim but as a member of the crew.
– NYT shows that the coronavirus has — so far — hit Democratic-voting [“blue”] counties harder than GOP-voting [“red”] counties, largely because of population densities.
– NYT also reports on a failed mercenary operation in troubled Libya.
– An Army War College professor lists some great books for colonels to read and engage with.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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