Month: May 2020
Serbia should align
A group of people described to me as “prominent individuals from all walks of life in Serbia” have issued an appeal in the runup to the (remote) EU/Western Balkans Summit meeting on Wednesday:
The tone is muted, but the overall message is clear: democracy is in danger in Serbia, due in part but not only to executive action in response to the Covid-19 epidemic.
In fact democracy was at risk in Serbia well before this year. President Vucic had already accumulated vast power, including over the media and judiciary as well as uncontested control of the executive branch. There has been no effective opposition in parliament for years. Protesters against his rule came from all ends of the political spectrum, liberal and ultra-nationalist, but they had little impact. Any hope they had of winning in elections evaporated when the epidemic caused the polling to be postponed.
As in so many other countries, including my own, the epidemic has aggravated tendencies that already existed in Serbia. In mid-March, President Vucic had harsh words for the lack of EU solidarity with his country and praise for the Chinese, who have been investing more in Serbia than in the rest of Balkans. This was an intensification of his effort to return Serbia from the nominally pro-Western stance he adopted in the last Serbian presidential election in 2017 to a “non-aligned” one in keeping with the Socialist Yugoslav tradition. He had already balanced Serbia’s cooperation with NATO by leaning heavily in Russia’s direction, including by procuring its military equipment and refusing to implement EU-levied (Ukraine-related) sanctions.
Much of the rest of the Western Balkans is choosing an unequivocally Western path for its economic and political development, even if performance often falls short. Bosnia is the exception, but only because its Serb-run Republika Srpska constrains the country from making a serious run at NATO. Montenegro is still struggling with an anti-independence, anti-NATO opposition, but it has joined NATO and its government is clear about its goal of aligning economically and politically with Europe. The same is true in North Macedonia, which likewise has joined NATO after settling its “name” issue with Greece. Kosovo has always been clear about its pro-NATO, pro-EU ambitions, despite the obvious shortfalls in its performance.
Serbia is different for several reasons. The Orthodox connection is stronger than in the other countries of the Balkans, Russophilia and ethnic nationalism are dominant sentiments in the still unreconstructed right wing of its politics, and Belgrade is the successor state to Socialist Yugoslavia in much more than the legal sense. Some Serbs are nostalgic for the unaligned Yugoslav role, which they believe brought goodies from both East and West. Others just like the familiarity of the Slav-dominated East.
No one should begrudge Serbia the benefits of Russian and Chinese investment. Belgrade needs every dinar it can get for its moribund economy. Germany does a lot of business with Russia too, but has nevertheless remained a leader in the liberal democratic world.
But it is high time the EU makes clear that the path to accession will not be open unless Serbia aligns itself economically and politically with Western standards, however much it enjoys Russian and Chinese cash. It is far from that ideal today. That is the significance of the pre-Summit appeal. Brussels and the EU national capitals need to send a strong message to Serbia: you are not getting into our club unless you meet entry requirements, in particular the Copenhagen criteria:
Membership requires that candidate country has achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights, respect for and protection of minorities, the existence of a functioning market economy as well as the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union. Membership presupposes the candidate’s ability to take on the obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/enlargement/ec/cop_en.htm
Sad to say, the Europeans can expect no support for now from the US in the effort to turn Serbia into a viable accession candidate. Washington is hostile to the EU, uninterested in promoting democracy except in adversary states, and cares only about quid pro quo rather than international norms or maintaining alliance relationships.
So yes, the EU/Western Balkans Summit should send a message not only about solidarity in the face of Covid-19, but also about maintaining European standards and requiring adherence to them by countries that seek membership. An anocratic Serbia is not one that can accede to the EU. Vucic should be told to align, or find Serbia lagging in the regatta for EU membership.
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Stevenson’s army, May 1
-WaPo says the administration is developing a package of anti-China measures,
many extreme and unprecedented, like demanding reparations for pandemic
costs and refusing to pay interest on Chinese-held US bonds.[As I said
in class, I support vigorous US measures to thwart Chinese military
expansion and to compete economically, especially in advanced
technologies. But I resent Trump’s weaponizing these measures mainly for
his political campaign and as a distraction from his delays and
failures handling the pandemic.]
– Part of this effort, NYT reports, is pressuring the intelligence community to prove Chinese culpability for release of the coronavirus.
– And SecState Pompeo was already in a pissing contest with Beijing.
– WSJ profiles national security adviser O’Brien, who says NSC staff is now down to the 120s.
– Yes, the FISA court consists of Article III [life-tenured] federal judges.
– NYT reports that Zoom sessions can be bad for your health.
And while I’m in a grumpy mood, how about this:
Lawmakers Vote by Mail to Roll Back Vote by Mail
April 30, 2020 at 3:10 pm EDT
“An emergency plan for Louisiana’s delayed spring elections was approved by the state Legislature after Republican lawmakers rolled back an expansion of mail-in ballots for people concerned about the coronavirus,” the Baton Rouge Advocate reports.
“Lawmakers voted by mail on the emergency plan.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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