Month: June 2020
The Gulf disappoints
President Trump’s first trip abroad was, infamously, to Saudi Arabia in May 2017. This was intended to signal support for the Gulf and enlist Gulf support for the new Administration’s belligerent posture towards Iran. The pomp was notable and pleased President Trump no end. He thought it promised a new era in US/Gulf relations. More than three years later, it is high time to consider what has been achieved.
In a word, virtually nothing. Saudi Arabia took the President’s visit as a green light to embargo Qatar, which escaped a Saudi invasion only because the US military stood in the way at Al Ubeid air base near Doha. The Gulf crisis continues unabated, despite more than a year of skilled efforts by Ambassador and General Anthony Zinni. Qatar has not yielded but instead allied itself with Turkey and survived more or less unscathed. Recent contacts and talks, which Washington has encouraged, have so far produced nothing substantial.
The Saudis have remained at war in Yemen, despite American efforts to get them out and refocus on Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which continues to thrive in the hinterlands. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman engaged in a “sheikh” down of Saudi princes in 2017 and then had dissenting journalist Jamal Khashoggi murdered in 2018. This year the Crown Prince has arrested prominent members of the royal family. His reforms have been real–Saudi women can now drive and popular music concerts happen–but they are cultural and economic rather than political. The Saudis have consistently ignored US concerns about the Crown Prince’s crackdowns.
Gulf support for President Trump’s hostility to Iran waxes and wanes. While the Gulfies complained that President Obama had not consulted them sufficiently on his nuclear deal with Tehran, Trump’s withdrawal from the deal and saber-rattling has unnerved the Arab Gulf states and caused some back-pedaling. They want toughness towards Iran, but not war, which would threaten their shiny capitals. The Iranian attacks on ships off the coast of the Emirates and on Saudi oil-processing facilities in 2019 have caused both countries to soften, as has the removal of American Patriot batteries from the Kingdom.
The United Arab Emirates have visibly warmed towards Israel, which has been providing grateful Arab Gulf states with technology to protect their regimes. But Israeli plans to annex part of the West Bank have drawn a sharp Emirati rebuke, published in Hebrew by the Emirati ambassador to the US. The Emirates, always quick to see the Muslim Brotherhood behind every hostile Islamist, are heavily engaged in supporting Khalifa Haftar, the would-be successor of Qadaffi in Libya, to no good effect.
Pretty much the only good news story in the Gulf during the last few years was the transition of power in Oman to Sultan Haitham on the death of Sultan Qaboos early this year. The Americans played no role in that. The Omanis, along with the Qataris, are occasionally helpful to the US. Muscat is no powerhouse, but a messy transition there would have created serious tensions and possibly instability that Iran and others might have tried to exploit.
The other Gulf states remain stable, but only by virtue of continued repression. In Bahrain the human rights situation has worsened. In Kuwait, where it is better than in much of the rest of the region, the situation is more or less stable.
The overriding concern of the Trump Administration in the Gulf has been to counter Iran. But Tehran has met maximum pressure with maximum resistance, even after Covid-19 hit hard. Ratcheting up economic sanctions further has little prospect of success. You get what you want from sanctions when you negotiate relief from them, not when you impose them. Trump has repeatedly signaled willingness to negotiate, but Tehran is uninterested until the US reenters the nuclear deal, which Trump has been unwilling to contemplate. At this point, it behooves the Iranians to wait to see what happens on November 3.
A final word on oil, notable so far for its absence from this post: the Trump Administration departed from traditional US policy on oil prices when the President tried to get the Saudis to raise them in the midst of their price war this spring with the Russians. Prices have recovered to around $40 per barrel, a historically low number that doesn’t satisfy the Saudis, American oil producers, or the Russians. Trump seems to have given up on his jawboning, but Americans should remember that their President did his best to raise prices at the pump.
Trump Administration Gulf policy can only be rated a disappointment. Things could be worse there, for sure, but a skeptic would be right to wonder why we are maintaining upwards of 60,000 troops (let’s not count the number of contractors) in the Greater Middle East, from which we get relatively little oil. The Chinese, Japanese, and South Koreans take much more. Maybe we should worry a bit less about the Gulf, and let them worry a bit more.
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Stevenson’s army, June 30
– DNI and DCIA have released statements complaining about leaks regarding Russian bounties to kill US troops. NYT says Trump got written briefing in February. AP says there were reports in 2019.
– Who’ll know? GOP has been boycotting House Intell hearings.
– Australia is beefing up its cyber capabilities.
– NYT has found 70 cases in past decade when people died in police custody, saying “I can’t breathe.”
– I warned against Democratic overconfidence because of what happened in 1988. Stu Rothenberg adds more –notably that the Dukakis-Bentsen lead was part of the convention” bounce.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Hashim responds:
Here is Kosovo President Thaci’s response today to the revelation that the Prosecutor of the Kosovo Specialist Chambers has recommended his indictment for war crimes and crimes against humanity:
Sisters and brothers, fellow citizens and compatriots, in Kosovo, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Presheva Valley, and the diaspora,
I address you tonight, from this office, where for 1542 days, I have had the extraordinary honor of exercising the high duty of the President of our country, a free, independent, and democratic Kosovo.
My heart is hurt, but not broken.
My mind weighs heavy, but is not bleary.
My blood is heated, but clean and unified with the blood of my friends in arms whom I lost in the war.
It is the same as the blood of those who have loved me and supported me without reservation in this journey of state-building.
And, in these moments also those who have opposed me, prejudiced or judged me differently from what I would have liked.
Today, more so than ever before, I feel completely liberated from the worry and weight of political strife.
These worries have sometimes been given greater magnitude than what they deserved.
They have blurred, in your eyes, the simple fact that we are all sons and daughters of this land and we all want what is best for Kosovo.
But politics has these things too.
Today I see clearer than ever before, that regardless of the good intentions of each, some more so and some less so, all of us, the political leaders of Kosovo during these 20 years of effort, in certain moments, have allowed politics to damage our great and shared purpose.
It is entirely natural that at this moment, which is not easy for me, I be reminded of people who no longer live.
Others that I have known along my already long road, from the time when I was an idealistic boy who wanted to change the world until today – with the grey hair.
I have reminisced about historic moments and completely personal moments, and I have thought of my parents, my grandparents, my family and my son, Endrit.
He who today has become a man, and I can look in his eyes without blinking my eyelashes over the ostensible start of a process for war crimes!
I have understood very early on that we, the fighters of KLA, would pay a great human, familial, and political cost.
This is the price for the freedom of Kosovo.
It is just that every accusation and allegation for war crimes be brought to light, from anyone and anywhere it has happened.
My friends of war, with some of whom peace has often separated us into different political camps, have challenged with the great strength of truth many low fabrications, and their innocence has shone over the garbage of monstrous accusations in the end.
It will be the same for me and my brother from the blood of war, Kadri Veseli.
Dear citizens,
Political mistakes in peace I could have made, but war crimes, never!
Even if I were to go back to the dark ages of Milloshevic, I would do the same thing, by answering the bullet of the enemy with the bullet of the thirst for freedom and by not wronging any Serbian, Roma, or Albanian citizen.
But let me make one thing very clear:
For over two decade I have supported initiatives for the establishment of courts with international involvement or oversight.
This principle remains the same today, when it is I, Hashim Thaçi, who could personally be faced with a court for which I have given my political support, with my word and with my vote.
At that time, we were faced with only two paths.
One which I have believed in my whole life and believe in to this day – advancing toward a closer alliance with the United States and the European Union.
The second – that this issue be left in the hands of the Security Council of the United Nations where countries that oppose the state of Kosovo have powerful influence.
My decision was strategic in accordance with my vision for the future of Kosovo.
And I have not looked for daily political benefits.
Today, whoever says that I have apparently become an obstacle, even a saboteur of this court, in the best case is ill-informed and in the worst case is tendentious.
However, on the other hand, someone must assess the balance of these 21 years of investigations, processes and decisions for war crimes in Kosovo.
Dear citizens,
I would be the happiest man if I were to see that the international community is applying the same standards to Kosovo and Serbia in addressing war crimes.
Unfortunately, not only do I not see this standard and proportionality, I see the opposite. And here we are today.
Serbia advances along the road of negotiations for European membership, while Kosovo does not even enjoy the right of free movement!
Naturally, I do not see here a conspiracy against Kosovo.
But the difference in approach by the international community toward the two nations is a fact.
Undoubtedly, we have our faults and responsibilities.
Myself first, and with me all the leaders of political parties in Kosovo, who over several years have not been able to maintain political cohesion.
But no fault or mistake of ours or mine justifies the fact that, for 21 years Kosovo has continued to be confronted with processes of justice for war crimes in her space.
While on the other side, the silence of graves for war crimes has fallen in Serbia.
The silence of Serbia is made more onerous by the silence of the international community.
We have engaged, I have personally and strongly been engaged for dialogue and peace with Serbia.
But I do not agree with and cannot accept the fact that, for thousands of Albanians who are missing because of Sllobodan Millosheviç’s killing machine, the bones of whom are in the soil of Serbia, there be no even international statements.
Should we even expect the day when we will be told that we must apologize to Serbia for our missing people, for our raped mothers and daughters, for the ethnic cleansing and genocide against us?!
This absurd question arises naturally, when no one in Serbia is being held accountable for war crimes any longer!
Nevertheless, today I do not want to dwell on the subject of the comparison of the promotions of justice for war crimes, which will surely take its place in the history of international justice and politics as a gloomy page of theirs for these two decades.
Honored citizens,
During these two decades I have had the privilege of having the support of the majority of you while serving at the helm of the highest national institutions.
Naturally, during these two decades, unintentionally, I have made some slips.
I know of some of them myself today.
I did not hesitate, together friends-in-arms, to wage war against Serbia, with weapons and diplomacy, disregarding the price that I may have had to pay, even my own life.
The war is over. Kosovo is a free and sovereign country.
Thus, during the last two decades, I have worked, and will work for peace and reconciliation with Serbian and the whole Balkans.
Today I do not simply live for myself and my family, but also for the friends that I have buried during the war, for their parents, their children, their nephews and nieces.
I live for the historic mission to which I belong together with Kadri Veseli, Ramush Haradinaj, Fatmir Limaj, and many others who were first in the fight for freedom but also first to be struck and attacked after the war.
Dear citizens,
We did not go to war to win elections or to claim power. We went to either live free, or die for freedom.
We did not have anything other than the great dream for freedom and independence.
But, the passage from the paths of the liberation war, to the corridors of institutions could have not be simple or easy for us.
I can tell you that I was more afraid of these corridors, than of those paths.
During the war, I slept little, but the sleep rejuvenated. After the war, I slept little, but rose exhausted from the dilemmas of how I could do a better job at the tasks of a new day.
I did as much as I could, but not as much as I wanted to.
But today I do not want to list the achievements of my post-war career today because this is neither a message of farewell, nor a moment of work evaluation for me.
I only want to tell you that I have carried on my shoulders many accusations and many offenses over the years.
When I was at the head of the government, I have never denied, and I do not deny today that the same way there have been achievements in the development of Kosovo, I have had challenges in the governance and leadership of the country.
This is natural for a leader.
However, one thing is certain: there has not been, and could not be, even a single piece of evidence addressed to Hashim Thaçi for violations of any law.
The only law that I have trampled is that of Milloseviç.
I did not fall from the sky and am not a saint.
My fate, in entirely unique historical circumstances, has determined the trajectory of my life and my behavior.
Politics was never a source of life for me, but a holy mission to serve this country and you, dear citizens.
No one can be found, in Kosovo or elsewhere, to whom I am indebted,
But, to anyone who has even once given me their vote throughout this part of my career, which continues, tonight I wish to say:
Forgive me if I have not done what you have expected of me, but rest assured that I have not misused your trust.
I bow before your trust.
Honored fellow citizens,
Kosovo is entering a new and in no way easy chapter.
This is a new chapter for me too, and in these moments, I do not know how difficult it will be.
But I am ready to write this chapter with my truth before anyone.
I do not know whether it was chance or intrigue that, midway toward the White House, the notification for an unconfirmed indictment was released.
Will this be the last price that must be paid for the freedom of Kosovo?
The cut me off my road.
But they do not threaten my trust in the values that the United States of America and the White House represent for myself and the citizens of Kosovo.
In the practice of justice of the civilized world, the public announcement of an indictment before it has been approved by the judicial body, is a massive scandal.
No crime, alleged or even committed, by anyone, justifies public lynching.
No good intention or great will for justice can justify the fabrication of a media bomb to incriminate the head of the state of Kosovo, at the exact moment when dialogue with Serbia could enter a new phase, thanks to the direct engagement of the White House.
What justice was interested in this lighting rush and this flagrant violation of the regulations of a process for justice of an independent judiciary?
This question must be addressed at the right time and in the right place.
Whereas the short answer to this question is:
That statement, blew up and rendered impossible a very important meeting at the White House, thereby giving a strong blow to the opportunity of achieving peace between Kosovo and Serbia.
Therefore, the appeal with which I wish to close this message tonight is:
Kosovo must ensure the stable functioning of its national institutions, under any circumstances.
In this new and difficult chapter, we can only move forward united, in the national and international plains alike.
In the following days, I will consult with the political leaders about the next steps.
I assure you again, I will not face justice from this office.
If the accusation is confirmed, I will immediately resign as your President and face the accusations.
Kosovo is a new country, but its leaders must act as real statesmen.
I will carry this burden and protect myself, our fight for freedom, with every ounce of power that I have.
I will not allow these false accusations to the draw away attention of Kosovo from taking its due place in the international community, as a member of the United Nations, NATO, and the European Union.
Kosovo is the homeland of all its citizens. A European country and a multi-ethnic society.
Once again, I say NO to revenge and YES to inter-ethnic tolerance.
Only by building citizen democracy do we build a Euro-Atlantic future.
Dear citizens,
While thanking all of you who have sent me word and encouraging messages, I wish you all the best from my heart.
I thank you for the attention!
God bless Kosovo!
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Stevenson’s army, June 29
– NYT has more details of how US forces came to suspect Russian bounties to the Taliban. While the president says the IC didn’t find it credible, note what NYT says:
One senior administration official offered a similar explanation, saying that Mr. Trump was not briefed because the intelligence agencies had come to no consensus on the findings.
But another official said there was broad agreement that the intelligence assessment was accurate, with some complexities because different aspects of the intelligence — including interrogations and surveillance data — resulted in some differences among agencies in how much confidence to put in each type.
Though the White House press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, claimed on Saturday that Mr. Trump had not been briefed about the intelligence report, one American official had told The Times that the report was briefed to the highest levels of the White House. Another said it was included in the President’s Daily Brief, a compendium of foreign policy and national security intelligence compiled for Mr. Trump to read.
Ms. McEnany did not challenge The Times’s reporting on the existence of the intelligence assessment, a National Security Council interagency meeting about it in late March and the White House’s inaction. Multiple other news organizations also subsequently reported on the assessment, and The Washington Post first reported on Sunday that the bounties were believed to have resulted in the death of at least one American service member.
– Academic studies say Fox News is hazardous to your health.
– Jim Fallows does thought experiment, analyzing US response to the coronavirus as if it were NTSB investigation of a plane crash.
– NYT columnist agrees with Princeton prof that our “napalm politics” began in 1980s with Newt Gingrich. I agree, too.
– WSJ says China will dominate rare earths.
– CFR has explainer on China’s new security laws.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Shore up the Kosovo state
This week’s announcement that the prosecutor of the Specialist Chambers in The Hague has recommended an indictment of Kosovo President Hashim Thaci and a former Speaker of the parliament wrecked the prospects for a Serbia/Kosovo supposedly “economic” summit that was to have taken place in Washington this weekend. That has led some to conclude that Europeans plotted the maneuver, as they resented the American initiative and some have targeted Thaci for years. I’m more inclined to think the Americans did it to themselves, because they had concluded the summit had little chance of success.
Whatever. It’s hard to believe the unusual, some would say illegitimate, initiative to publicize the indictment recommendation was not known in both in Brussels and Washington before it happened. Neither stopped it. The result is an earthquake that has shaken the Kosovo state.
The right reaction is to reinforce that state. Kosovo will need a government with a wider margin in parliament and a new president.
No Kosovo prime minister should come to Washington or Brussels to re-engage in the dialogue with Belgrade without a majority that comes close to matching that of President Vucic, who won more than 75% of the his parliament’s seats in last weekend’s election in Serbia, as the opposition boycotted.
To achieve this, Kosovo Prime Minister Hoti, who came into office less than two months ago, would need to bring in either Thaci’s Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) or Vetevendosje (Self-Determination, or VV), which led the short-lived government that preceded Hoti’s. Both joining the government is asking too much, as they despise each other. The PDK will be licking its wounds, as the President is its founder and the Speaker is its party secretary, and there are likely other proposed indictees among its leadership. VV would drive a hard bargain but would be a hefty addition to a weak coalition.
If the indictment is confirmed in July, President Thaci will need to resign–in dignity–and commit to go to The Hague to defend himself. There is ample precedent for this: former Prime Minister Haradinaj resigned twice to defend himself in The Hague, successfully. The parliament will then need to elect a new chief of state, or risk new elections within 45 days. A distinguished, uncompromised, and unpolitical candidate, comparable to former President Atifete Jahjaga, is the right direction. Kosovo has an ample supply of well-qualified people, especially women. Few of them can be accused of war crimes and many are unsullied by corruption and other malfeasance.
A new election would likely bring VV back to power with stronger representation in parliament than it had the last time around, when it came in first by a smidgen. But the time and political competition required for an election would leave Kosovo adrift at a crucial moment. A weakened state would be vulnerable to all sorts of shenanigans, by Europeans, Americans, Russians and others. It would be far better if VV’s obvious political strength could be recognized without repeating the October 2019 contest.
With a new president and a widened government, Kosovo needs first and foremost to stabilize itself, ending all attacks on Serbs and Serb property as well as the internecine quarreling within its majority Albanian population, which makes Kosovo look ungovernable. Attacks on Serbs give Belgrade the ammunition it needs to argue that the ethnic groups need to be separated and Serb-occupied territory transferred to Serbia as well as much of the Serb population south of the Ibar river. Such a land/people transfer is an enormous threat to Kosovo as an independent and sovereign state, as it would remove a big obstacle to union with Albania: the Serb population.
The cancelled Washington summit was ill-conceived and no loss to anyone. But Kosovo and Serbia both need to improve their political and economic relations. The EU-run dialogue has been without significant results since 2013, but Brussels still holds the key incentives to make normalization between the two countries a reality, including the promise of Kosovo recognition by the five nonrecognizing EU states. The proper US role is one of support for the EU, which is admittedly difficult right now because the Trump Administration dislikes both Europe and the Union. It would be much easier in a Biden Administration, which is starting to look likely as Covid-19 resurges across red states in the south and west.
But that question won’t be resolved until November 3. Right now the power balance in the Balkans is what counts. Serbia is already strong. Strengthening the Kosovo state is a prerequisite for a better outcome.
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Protest rises across the Middle East
“Today we are witnessing not only Lebanon and Iraq’s powerful protest movements calling for greater rights and an end to corruption, but also solidarity movements in Palestine and Syria supporting the Black Lives Matter movement in the United States. What common goals are shared by protest movements across the Middle East? What lessons can the civil resistance currently surging in the United States learn from social movements and activism in the Middle East, and vice versa? What impact has COVID-19 had on ongoing protests in Lebanon and Iraq?” On June 24, the Middle East Institute held an online discussion on protests and solidarity movements in states throughout the Middle East. The event was moderated by Zahra Hakir and featured four guest speakers:
Zahra Hankir (Moderator): Freelance journalist and author, Our Women on the Ground: Essays by Arab Women Reporting from the Arab World
Zahra Ali: Assistant Professor of Sociology, Rutgers University-Newark
Ahmed Abu Artema: Palestinian journalist and peace activist
Razan Ghazzawi: Doctoral candidate, University of Sussex
Lokman Slim: Director, Hayya Bina and UMAM
Iraq
Ali believes that the protests that have occurred across Iraq since October 2019 symbolize an unprecedented attempt by ordinary Iraqis to change the course of their nation’s contemporary history. In Tahrir Square in Baghdad, activists occupy the streets and have begun to provide free educational and cultural services to Iraqi citizens. Through their work, these activists have developed new codes of conduct that question traditional conceptions of gender norms. Ali believes that the US invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003 engendered divisions along sectarian lines. To protesters in Iraq, resentment against these divisions lay at the heart of their dismay.
Syria
Ghazzawi highlights that recent protests in Daraa, Idlib, Afrin, Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and Suwayda arose following the imposition of new political and socio-economic realities by the Syrian state, Russia, Iran, and Turkey. The demand to release detained protesters has uniformly resonated throughout protests across Syria. Ghazzawi believes that these protests challenge previous analysis of essentialist notions of sectarianism in Syria. In addition, Ghazzawi finds these protests to be significant in the way in which they challenge authoritiarian, colonial, and partition geography. The protests require one to think beyond the model of the Syrian state vis-à-vis the opposition.
Solidarity with BLM in Palestinian Territories
There is a history of solidarity between the cause of Palestinian liberation and Black social justice movements. Abu Artema highlights the recent development of solidarity movements in the Palestinian Territories with the Black Lives Matter movement and protests against the death of George Floyd. Abu Artema stresses that in expressing solidarity with the Black Lives Matter movement, Palestinians have simultaneously protested against instances of aggression by Israeli soldiers.
Lebanon
Slim underscores that the rise of anti-establishment protests in Lebanon has surpassed sectarian lines. Similar to Iraq, Lebanon remains plagued by the ramifications of sectarian divisions. Because of the economic collapse and the failure of the Lebanese healthcare system amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, protests in Lebanon have increased in intensity. To Slim, these protests have exposed growing dislike for Hezbollah among Lebanese citizens, who associate the group with Lebanon’s corrupt government. Furthermore, the enactment of the United States Caesar Civilian Protection Act may have deleterious consequences for Hezbollah, which has backed the Assad-regime throughout the Syrian Civil War.
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